Ante-Post Cheltenham 2010

[dropsy]

Go Native should win the Champion Hurdle this year.... but I can just picture Solwhit beating it in the same manner that Hardy beat Harchibald.

... I mentioned earlier in this thread that I think 5/1 is too short for a horse that's racing for the first time at Cheltenham and I figure that if he gets there Solwhit could go off shorter than that. 2 horses in the past 21 runnings (as far back as I can research on racingpost.com) have won the champion hurdle on their first run at Cheltenham - Alderbrook (1995) and Royal Gait (1992). Both of those (for what it's worth) won group races on the flat previously.

All that said, my data mining skills are limited so I can't find a way of figuring out how many short price horses have tried and failed to win the CH on their first visit to the track. I do however remember Ameretto Rose going off at 2/1 for the Supreme Novice in 2007 - his first visit to the track - and finding very little up the hill.

I'm setting myself up for a big lay on the day here so someone please tell my why i'm wrong

Dropsy

[Flyingbolt]

I'll throw this in here. Was talking to a Carlow man during the week over a few pints, he told me that Aughaloor could very well be the champion bumper winner, i see now that its entered in a couple of NHF races next week, this could be a complete load of boll*x as he doesn't seem the most reliable of blokes but I said I'd pass it on in case any of ye heard similar. I'll be taking no more than a watching brief in his first race anyway.

As was just mentioned in the Willie Mullins thread (link), Aughaloor is a 7-year old. I'm pretty sure the Cheltenham Champion Bumper is only for 4 to 6yos. So it does indeed sound like a load of bollocks!

[valain]

As was just mentioned in the Willie Mullins thread (link), Aughaloor is a 7-year old. I'm pretty sure the Cheltenham Champion Bumper is only for 4 to 6yos. So it does indeed sound like a load of bollocks!

Yeah i had my suspicions, he was quite a talkative fella if ya get my drift. ah well.

[Flyingbolt]

... I mentioned earlier in this thread that I think 5/1 is too short for a horse that's racing for the first time at Cheltenham and I figure that if he gets there Solwhit could go off shorter than that. 2 horses in the past 21 runnings (as far back as I can research on racingpost.com) have won the champion hurdle on their first run at Cheltenham - Alderbrook (1995) and Royal Gait (1992). Both of those (for what it's worth) won group races on the flat previously.

All that said, my data mining skills are limited so I can't find a way of figuring out how many short price horses have tried and failed to win the CH on their first visit to the track. I do however remember Ameretto Rose going off at 2/1 for the Supreme Novice in 2007 - his first visit to the track - and finding very little up the hill.

I'm setting myself up for a big lay on the day here so someone please tell my why i'm wrong

It's certainly a salient point that Solwhit has not run at Cheltenham before while all the other principals in the race have and have performed well there. And there are quite a few examples of good horses who have failed at Cheltenham when they were sucessful elsewhere. But the important question is whether there is any reason to believe Solwhit himself won't handle the track? I don't think so. He has run on different types of courses - left handed, right handed, sharp, stiff - and always handled them fine. He seems a well-balanced, straightforward type. He gets over his hurdles quickly, always gallops strongly off the bridle and he has a winning habit. The Cheltenham hill definitely won't bother him.

The only worry I would have is if the pace of the race is too fast for him. It seems strange to say that about a quality two mile hurdler but the Grade 1 races he has won in Ireland have generally been on soft ground. Even the Punchestown Champion Hurdle last May was on heavy ground. His Aintree Hurdle win was over 2.5 miles where they would go a step slower than two mile championship pace. Thankfully for Solwhit, even if we get a dry March, the course will be well watered to make sure of good-to-soft ground for the opening day of the festival (rightly or wrongly). Another good thing is that there aren't too many front runners in the field, so the pace is more likely to be sensible. If an outsider doesn't take them along, it will probably be Celestial Halo or Zaynar and I doubt they would be taking Solwhit off his feet.

All in all, while I respect your point about lack of course form and have my own worry about encountering faster ground, I think he has already shown the credentials of a Champion Hurdler. I expect him to be bang in the mix at the final flight and if so, it'll be difficult for anything else to beat him to the line. For the tricast, I'll have Go Native and Medermit to follow him home. It could even be similar to the brilliant finish of the 2005 race (Hardy Eustace, Harchibald and Brave Inca).

[00dyel]

If you fancy Mille Chief for the triumph, i reckon that Westlin Winds is well worth a look.

Westlin Winds was giving away 10lb to Mille Chief and lost by only 3 1/2 lengths. Before this Westlin Winds had beaten Anak on soft to heavy going, which Anak seems to really like.

Westlin Winds is currently 20-1, this could shorten at the weekend as is taking on Pistolet Noir

Westlin Winds beat Causeway King who has since been beaten by Barwell Bridge and today by Orzare ( although i think he would have won had he not fluffed the last). A good 2nd none the less franks the form of Westlin Winds.

[aidankk]

Current Anti Post Bets For Cheltenham all on Betfair Rated By Smilies

Captain Cee BE 21 20 19 17 Arkle 5.0 Now
Tatiano Arkle 16 Now 16.5 (fancy this on better ground)
Fosters Cross 290w 24p Arkle Now 120
King Edmund 300 now 250


Punabi 16 Champion Still 16 :
Binocular 9.6 Champion 10.0
Fiulin Champion 1000
De Valira Champion 1000 now 680:

Voler La Vedette mares 4.3 Still (should be FAV)

Rite Of Passage 24 20 21 17 Baring Bing Now 5.4
Rite Of Passage 18 Supreme Now 17.5 Just in case
Aiteen Thirtythree 64 Gone:

Twist Magic 10.5 now 6.5
Forpadydeplasterer 14 Gone

Long Run 8.6 now 7.4 RSA
The Sliotar 880 now 75 RSA Supes TIP (know better today)

Mighty Man 48 now Gone RSA

Schindlers Hunt 110 Ryanair now 15.1
Tidal Bay 50 40 now 170 Hurdling

Cape Tribulation 300 170 World now 110 also W/O BB 70
Kasbah Bliss 200 now 400 Not running:

Calgary Bay Gold Cup to place 40 now 19.5
Calgary Bay w/o big 2 38 now 24
My Will w/o big 2 40 now 36
Nacarat w/o big 2 120 now 46

Anak Triumph 160 now 65

[Flyingbolt]

Schindlers Hunt @ 80 for the Ryanair chase looks value

Schindlers Hunt 110 Ryanair now 15.1

I like the look of those bets. Good stuff lads. I even think the current 16/1 might be value on him.

[Skint]

A reliable source has said he had 'a big word' from Henderson's stable for the as yet unraced SUPER KENNY in the Triumph hurdle. I've taken the 20/1 widely available this morning, e/w. It won't be that price on the day.

[dropsy]

All in all, while I respect your point about lack of course form and have my own worry about encountering faster ground, I think he has already shown the credentials of a Champion Hurdler. I expect him to be bang in the mix at the final flight and if so, it'll be difficult for anything else to beat him to the line. For the tricast, I'll have Go Native and Medermit to follow him home. It could even be similar to the brilliant finish of the 2005 race (Hardy Eustace, Harchibald and Brave Inca).

Thanks for your thoughts, FB. You've at least put me off the lay ... for now . Solwhit aside, at 14/1 on Betfair, Medermit is probably better value than Go Native given how close he got to him last year and he seems to love the hill.

if you fancy Got Native and Medermit to follow him home, why not throw Khyber Kim in there too? Admittedly his record at the festival isn't good, but he's flown up the hill the two times he's been there this year ....beating Medermit both times. I wonder has he just improved a lot since last year.

Dropsy

[dropsy]

A week ago, Mullins said: "Mikael D’Haguenet is fine but, as expected, I can confirm that it will be the New Year before he makes an appearance." He has no entries as yet but hopefully we'll see him in the next couple of weeks, weather permitting.

Mikael Dhaguenet currently entered for the Arkle and the RSA - any one hear any more about his seasonal debut or is he going straight to the festival?

Dropsy

[corban]

For me Finians Rainbow is overpriced for the Neptune Investment Hurdle at 25/1 with paddys.

Into 7/1 generally now...

[blacksenzy]

Into 7/1 generally now...

Nice bet Corban, but Peddlers Cross will win it
Khyber Kim in the Champion Hurdle
Tidal Bay in the World Hurdle
That makes about 850/1 treble at the moment
Add to that Long Run in the RSA chase...

[corban]

cheers, actually got some on at much bigger prices on betfair, so i'm happy enough with my selection..

[Buzz]

Mikael Dhaguenet currently entered for the Arkle and the RSA - any one hear any more about his seasonal debut or is he going straight to the festival?

Dropsy

Mikael D'Haguenet will be making his much belated debut over fences this Wednesday in a beginners chase at Fairyhouse. Weather permitting that is

http://www.irishracing.com/cards/v5c...1002241505.htm

[dropsy]

Mikael D'Haguenet will be making his much belated debut over fences this Wednesday in a beginners chase at Fairyhouse. Weather permitting that is

We're not going to see him today but he is entered at navan and L'Town this weekend so hopefully then.

Dropsy

[clivebaby]

Paddy Power are doing a special 20/1 Captain Cee Bee and Denman win

[Flyingbolt]

When will the ante-post market open up for the County Hurdle and the Jewson does anyone know?

Today!

Well, only Betfair has markets so far. The entries for the handicap races were released today but the weights for them aren't published until next Wednesday. Maybe some bookies will try to price up the County Hurdle and Jewson before then. Some handicaps already have bookie prices - the William Hill Trophy, the Cross Country and the Coral Cup.

[Flyingbolt]

We're not going to see him today but he is entered at navan and L'Town this weekend so hopefully then.

Mikael D'Haguenet not declared for either race.

Although he is going to be schooled after racing at Leopardstown on Sunday. Mullins: "There are no plans for him yet and we will see how he gets on at Leopardstown before looking further ahead."

[Buzz]

Ah shite!

Never mind winning but has any horse ever even competed in a Grade 1 chase at Cheltenham without having ran over fences before.

[dropsy]

Never mind winning but has any horse ever even competed in a Grade 1 chase at Cheltenham without having ran over fences before.

Is it too late to enter MD in one of the hurdles at the festival? - if they could do that they could send him novice chasing next season instead.

Dropsy