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Thread: Tips (from paid guessers)

  1. #1
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    Tips (from paid guessers)

    As it says on the tin, (tips from paid guessers)

    January 1st

    1.55 Rosie and millie 5/2 1pt win 3rd

    3.05 Schiehallion Munro 6/1 1pt win 2nd

    3.35 Bullion boss 9/1 e/w 1pt e/w 1st 10/1

    9.25pts profit on the day
    Last edited by the dope; 01-01-2021 at 20:12.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

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  3. #2
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    Saturday


    3.00 Ballydine 28/1 1pt e/w 5 places

    Friday 2.57pm

    To: xxxxxxxxx
    3:00
    Sandown
    2 Jan 2021 ITV4
    3m (3m37y) Unibet Veterans' Handicap Chase (The Final Of The 2020 Veterans' Chase Series) (Class 2) (10yo+)

    Good afternoon
    We have a veteran’s race to get stuck into tomorrow at Sandown. Let us reflect on the Henderson runners, Nicky says he may have a bug in the yard while Valtor’s odds have halved and Gold Presents price has almost doubled. His blog will be an interesting read this evening.
    BALLYDINE 33/1 is very interesting considering most firms are paying 5 places. Ballydine has a 50% place record over fences and has a 100% record at the course in chases albeit he only raced once at the course. He won that race officially rated 131 and he runs tomorrow off 129 with claiming jockey Tom Buckley taking off a very handy extra 5LB.
    He is lightly raced for a veteran and although he can give the odd fence a belt 33/1 five places is just far too big.

    I see yet another tipping service have gone for Ballydine this morning.

    Ballydine – I can only think he’s been tipped up in many a place given his price contraction from last night. Still, 16s-18s looked worth a go, in the first time blinkers. I suspect they’ll try and be aggressive and his best ever chase run was around here. He’s got some solid form to his name when putting it all together and he could be the best handicapped horse in the race. His jumping can occasionally be sticky but with nothing on his back here hopefully he can get into a rhythm on or near the front. The yard are in form and Tom B does well for Charlie, 6/30,14p, the chase win on Loose Chips. On paper a strange booking maybe, but it could be he rides out plenty at home and knows these old boys well enough. His return run wasn’t too bad, and 28f in Haydock Heavy may not have been ideal. He’s lightly raced for his age and has clearly had problems, but form such as 2019s Peter Marsh, where he may have won but for an error 3 out, off 11lb higher and in 1st CP, would put him bang there against these. He looked interesting at his price

    Fwiw
    the trainer of Ballydine says " he would have liked to get a run over hurdles before this race to build Ballydines confidence but Tom knows the horse well and he hopes he can run well"

    Btw
    I cannot copy and paste the emails I get as I would get myself and this site into hot water, the above is near enough to explain their reasoning.
    Last edited by the dope; 02-01-2021 at 10:37.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

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  5. #3
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    1.45 APOLLINARIS 1pt e/w 9/1
    3.00 BALLYDINE 1pt e/w 28/1
    4.10 INCLYNE 1pt e/w 10/1

    For anyone who really likes a return Skybet paying 14.46/1 for the three to be placed, 4 places first race, 6 places second race and three places last race.

    Good luck for today we will need it.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

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    well done dope-- a guaranteed profit for the day.

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    3.00 Ballydine 28/1 1pt e/w 5 places...............2nd last

    However I would take on board a few things today,

    Trainers comments about wishing he had got a run into him and looking at the start young Tom didn't give a flying f**K what position he got in the race obviously told
    the important thing is to get the horse around for his confidence so Job done for the stable but not for us.

    Hopefully one for anther day.


    Friday 01/Jan/ todays p/l +9.25
    Saturday 02/Jan/ todays p/l +7.25pts

    Previous bets and results

    1.55 Rosie and millie 5/2 1pt win 3rd
    3.05 Schiehallion Munro 6/1 1pt win 2nd
    3.35 Bullion boss 9/1 e/w 1pt e/w 1st 10/1
    1.45 APOLLINARIS 1pt e/w 9/1 1st 6/1
    3.00 BALLYDINE 1pt e/w 28/1 tailed off
    4.10 INCLYNE 1pt e/w 10/1 6th


    p/l +16.50pts
    Last edited by the dope; 02-01-2021 at 16:27.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

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    Sunday Cattrick 3.07 ECTOR 1pt e/w 11/1

    Warren Greatrex
    Ector
    Dec Odds: 9.4 (BetFair Exchange)
    Sun 3rd Jan 2021
    Ector ran very well two races ago at Hereford but he can always throw in a lesser performance and that was the case last time at Ffos Las. He stays very well and remains attractively weighted so we are expecting one of his better runs today.

    other useless crap....

    15:37, Catterick
    Micky Hammond
    Sincerely Resdev
    Dec Odds: 15 (BetFair Exchange)
    Sun 3rd Jan 2021
    Sincerely Resdev is the best chance of a winner we have today. He won nicely first time out for the stable at Sedgefield in November and while he didn't follow it up on a return visit there nine days ago is in good form and could go close.


    15:37, Catterick
    Micky Hammond
    Ex S'Elance
    Dec Odds: 21 (BetFair Exchange)
    Sun 3rd Jan 2021
    Ex S'Elance took a few races to come into form last winter and a similar pattern seems to be emerging this season. I think he's our second string in this.
    Last edited by the dope; 03-01-2021 at 11:44.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

  11. #7
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    Sunday
    Catterick 2.35 TALKTOMENOW 1pt e/w 11/1
    Cattrick 3.07 ECTOR 1pt e/w 11/1


    anyone want/like to do yankees/lucky 15s here are some fancied ones for today

    14:25, Plumpton Defi Des Carres 9/1

    2.35 Catterick TALKTOMENOW 11/1

    2.58 Plumpton HIGH UP IN THE AIR 6/4

    3.28 Plumpton CALLOFF THE DOGS 7/2
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

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    Two terrible runs today, loss of 4 pts

    1.55 Rosie and millie 5/2 1pt win 3rd
    3.05 Schiehallion Munro 6/1 1pt win 2nd
    3.35 Bullion boss 9/1 e/w 1pt e/w 1st 10/1
    1.45 APOLLINARIS 1pt e/w 9/1 1st 6/1
    3.00 BALLYDINE 1pt e/w 28/1 tailed off
    4.10 INCLYNE 1pt e/w 10/1 6th
    2.35 TALKTOMENOW 1pt e/w 11/1 3rd
    3.07 ECTOR 1pt e/w 11/1 pu

    p/l +12.50pts
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

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    Fakenham Monday 14:25 Happy New Year Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-110)


    To say MAC KAYLA 14/1 2pts e/w (OFFICIAL RATING 102) has bumped into a few good ones in her lightly raced career may be an understatement.


    Let’s start at her first race, a Uttoxeter bumper on good ground where she finished 6th btn 13L back in March 2019. Her 40/1 sp gave an indication where she would finish and so too did her positioning in the race (held up in rear and ran on last two furlongs finishing sixth.


    The five horses who finished in front of her that day have won 10 races between them. Currently horses from that bumper are officially rated (winner 124) (fourth 130) (fifth 105 H) (seventh 120) (ninth 130) (tenth 104)

    Rested for 193 days she turned up in another bumper again unfancied 20/1 which was won by URBAN ARTIST. The winning filly had a flat rating of 98 and won a 11 runner bumper at Cheltenham on her next start.

    Rested for another five weeks she rocked up for a novice hurdle again at big prices 50/1 however the 2/1 fav did happen to be THE BIG BREAKAWAY (O.R 144 H) and the 9/4 2nd fav was Blackjack Kentucky (O.R 130 H) She finished 8th btn 38L

    Regardless of the class of horse she raced against the trip and ground would have been totally unsuitable for her, stamina will be a must in any race she is entered in if she is to win or place. She tries the 3m trip for the first time tomorrow.


    The trainer is 82/22 winners at the track and jockey who has had 11 rides in the last 14 days has had 5 winners, at this track he is 52/8 with 19 places so the 14/1 four places looks generous. (see oddschecker)


    TIMEFORM Lightly-raced maiden who has made a limited impact in a couple of bumpers and handful of runs over hurdles. *

    Only 1 star from five for MAC KAYLA from Timeform.

    Maybe Timeform know more than the guessers
    Last edited by the dope; 04-01-2021 at 14:37.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

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    1.55 Rosie and millie 5/2 1pt win 3rd
    3.05 Schiehallion Munro 6/1 1pt win 2nd
    3.35 Bullion boss 9/1 e/w 1pt e/w 1st 10/1
    1.45 APOLLINARIS 1pt e/w 9/1 1st 6/1
    3.00 BALLYDINE 1pt e/w 28/1 tailed off
    4.10 INCLYNE 1pt e/w 10/1 6th
    2.35 TALKTOMENOW 1pt e/w 11/1 3rd
    3.07 ECTOR 1pt e/w 11/1 pu
    2.25 MAC KAYLA 14/1 2pts e/w pu

    p/l +8.50pts


    Two pulled up horses in two races
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

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    1.58 san seb 3pts win 4/1

    Non runner
    Last edited by the dope; 08-01-2021 at 19:34.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

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    Saturday 7.20

    Lady of aran 2pts e/w 12/1


    Kempton Saturday…
    7.20 Lady of Arran currently 14/1
    The deeper I look into this race the more I like Lady of Aran, I know backing a filly can be tricky but her course form is nothing short of amazing. At 14s she is the outsider of the field and in my opinion is the one to be on e/w.
    Lady of Aran is currently rated 82. Georgia Dobie rides and takes off 5lb reducing that to 77. She has ridden the horse four times resulting in form figures of 9441 The ninth finishing position was in a 12 runner listed race at Newmarket where she was only beaten 8 and 1/4L. The race was run on soft ground which would not have suited Lady of Aran.

    Let’s have a close look at her form
    Lifetime form 4212/7934201032/2937441958-
    Allweather form 421223229358
    Kempton 7f form 122323
    That’s six races at Kempton, winning one and 2nd or 3rd in the other five races never beaten further than two length’s in any of them. I mentioned the jockeys 5LB claim as it takes the fillies mark to 77. Lady of Aran has raced at Kempton twice when rated under 80 resulting in form figures of 22 beaten a shd and a hd

    Sire
    Sir Prancealot 683 /66 wins (9.66%) 199 places 29.14%)


    Jockey Georgia Dobie has not got a great win record at the track 147/19 (12.93%) however 44 places (29.93%) is decent indeed.
    Trainer Charlie Fellows last five year record at Kempton is 173/18 (10.90%) and 56 places (32.37%) is a decent strike rate .
    trainer is a co owner, keep an eye on the betting n way should this be 14/1

    Timeform’s conclusion for tomorrows race…….C&D winner but didn't enjoy the rub of the green when last of 8 in handicap at Wolverhampton (8.6f, 25/1) 20 days ago. Not ruled out. *** 3 stars


    Comments from trainer Charlie Fellows

    Lady of Aran
    Sat 16th Jan 2021
    19:20, Kempton Park
    DEC Odds: 8 (Betfair Exc)



    Has been below par recently but there have been numerous excuses. Today's conditions are much more like it as she loves the track and 7f is perfect. Georgia rides her beautifully too so hopefully we will see the real filly today.

    Currently 13/2 best price
    Last edited by the dope; 16-01-2021 at 10:24.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

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    4.15 Durdle door 2pts win 11/2 1st

    7.20 Lady of Aran 2pts e/w 12/1
    Last edited by the dope; 16-01-2021 at 16:33.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

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  19. #14
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    7pts profit for the day, Lady of Aran finishing 3rd

    1.55 Rosie and millie 5/2 1pt win 3rd
    3.05 Schiehallion Munro 6/1 1pt win 2nd
    3.35 Bullion boss 9/1 e/w 1pt e/w 1st 10/1
    1.45 APOLLINARIS 1pt e/w 9/1 1st 6/1
    3.00 BALLYDINE 1pt e/w 28/1 tailed off
    4.10 INCLYNE 1pt e/w 10/1 6th
    2.35 TALKTOMENOW 1pt e/w 11/1 3rd
    3.07 ECTOR 1pt e/w 11/1 pu
    2.25 MAC KAYLA 14/1 2pts e/w pu
    4.15 Durdle door 2pts win 11/2 1st
    7.20 Lady of Aran 2pts e/w 12/1 3rd

    p/l +15.50pts
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

  20. #15
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    the drifter of the night and morning 8/1 >>>>16/1

    Non runner now, dear oh dear.
    Last edited by the dope; 17-01-2021 at 11:36.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

  21. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by the dope View Post
    the drifter of the night and morning 8/1 >>>>16/1
    Non runner now, dear oh dear.

    The opposite now expected to happen, 33s with billies regarding the above




    As there are no bets today if you need to bet here are a few from one of the reliable guys out there
    I will just put them up for today as its unfair to put anyones stuff up here on more than the odd occasion


    #1 – 12.25 Ayr – Ugo Du Misselot – 1pt each way – 10/1 (gen)
    This stoutly bred seven-year-old shaped nicely on his first start for Tristan Davidson last month when runner-up over course and distance in a stop-start affair. Despite being weak in the market he wasn’t beaten far, with a couple of decent in-form Irish raiders in behind, suggesting the form is solid. His sole start in Irish Points saw him capsize at the last when upsides a horse that has gone on to prove himself useful, suggesting his talented trainer has a fair prospect on his hands.



    #2 – 12.55 – Seven Eye Bridge – 1pt win – 11/4 (gen)
    Rose Dobbin’s six-year-old faces a big task on official numbers, yet there was plenty to like about his victory at Carlisle last month, when showing a decent turn of foot to pull clear after the last. A strapping chase type, he ran a nice race in an Irish Point which has produced a couple of decent winners, suggesting he has more potential than that recent victory implies. Stamina looks to be his strong suit which cannot be said of the hot favourite, who remains winless at the age of nine and has plenty to prove, not least his ability to dig deep under pressure.



    #3 – 1.55 Ayr – Asking For Answers – 1pt win – 4/1 (gen)
    This eight-year-old’s career has taken a sharp turn in the right direction this season, winning both starts over 3m under new partner Danny McMenamin, who retains the ride. Both those wins saw him a little outpaced before finishing strongly, suggesting the extra three furlongs today should play to his strengths. This is undoubtedly as step up in class as well, but his opponents are hardly prolific winners and with plenty in his favour he is fancied to land the hat-trick.



    #4 – 2.30 Ayr – Caboy – 1pt each-way – 11/1 (gen)
    Has been a little disappointing on the face of it since joining Lucinda Russell, but was no stranger to the winners enclosure in France when winning on four occasions when the ground was riding soft. Back on favourable terrain in November he showed signs of a revival when third to a subsequent winner, but was then a well-beaten fifth over an unsuitably short trip. However, that form proved to be very strong with the first three home all winning next time, and with an extra half mile to travel plus a new jockey in the plate there is every reason to think he’ll go well.
    Last edited by the dope; 18-01-2021 at 11:18.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

  22. #17
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    The opposite now expected to happen, 33s with billies regarding the above


    2.45 scorpion haze 1pt e/w 40/1 powers
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

  23. #18
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    As I said in the pm yesterday its a public forum and you can't put everything up here but three pulled up horses from 12 bets, not great but in profit so far


    1.55 Rosie and millie 5/2 1pt win 3rd

    3.05 Schiehallion Munro 6/1 1pt win 2nd
    3.35 Bullion boss 9/1 e/w 1pt e/w 1st 10/1
    1.45 APOLLINARIS 1pt e/w 9/1 1st 6/1
    3.00 BALLYDINE 1pt e/w 28/1 tailed off4.10 INCLYNE 1pt e/w 10/1 6th2.35 TALKTOMENOW 1pt e/w 11/1 3rd
    3.07 ECTOR 1pt e/w 11/1 pu
    2.25 MAC KAYLA 14/1 2pts e/w pu
    4.15 Durdle door 2pts win 11/2 1st
    7.20 Lady of Aran 2pts e/w 12/1 3rd2.45 scorpion haze 1pt e/w 40/1 powers

    p/l +13.50pts


    Haydock PETER MARSH CHASE Saturday 23rd Jan.

    The Peter Marsh Chase is a Grade Two race run over 3m that is staged at Haydock Park racecourse.

    First run in 1981 the contest is sometimes billed as another Grand National trial, but we’ve yet to see a winner of this race land the Aintree marathon in the same season, although the 1995 winner, Earth Summit, did go onto win the Grand National 3 years later.

    The 2020 Peter Marsh Chase was won by the Sue Smith-trained Vintage Clouds - the Sue Smith yard have won 5 of the last 17 runnings.

    Here we take a look back at recent winners and gives you the main stats to look out for ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday January 23rd.

    Recent Peter Marsh Chase Winners

    2020 – VINTAGE CLOUDS (7/1)
    2019 - WAKANDA (6/1)
    2018 – THE DUTCHMAN (13/2)
    2017 – BRISTOL DE MAI (4/1 jfav)
    2016 – CLOUDY TOO (6/1)
    2015 – SAMSTOWN (16/1)
    2014 – WYCHWOODS BROOK (16/1)
    2013 – No race
    2012 – ACCORDING TO PETE (9/1)
    2011 – No race
    2010 – OUR VIC (20/1)
    2009 – CLOUDY LANE (6/1)
    2008 – No race
    2007 – THE OUTLIER (8/1)
    2006 – EBONY LIGHT (33/1)
    2005 – LORD TRANSCEND (9/4 fav)
    2004 – ARTIC JACK (6/1)
    2003 – TRUCKERS TAVERN (9/2)
    2002 – RED STRIKER (8/1)
    2001 – No race
    2000 – THE LAST FLING (11/2)

    Key Peter Marsh Chase Betting Trends

    17/17 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
    16/17 – Aged 8 or older
    16/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
    16/17 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
    15/17 – Had run within the last 36 days
    12/17 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
    12/17 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
    12/17 – Won at Haydock previously
    12/17 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
    11/17 – Favourites unplaced
    10/17 – Irish bred
    10/17 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
    9/17 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
    9/17 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
    9/17 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
    9/17 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
    9/17 – Won over fences at Haydock before
    7/17 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
    7/17 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
    6/17 – Raced in the Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
    6/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
    5/17 – Trained by Sue Smith
    4/17 – Ridden by Danny Cook
    2/17 – Trained by the McCain stable
    2/17 – Won their last race
    2/17 – Winning favourites

    The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/1


    Geegeezs.co.uk

    This is a race where most of the "services" will tip up /select / guess / or whatever your havin yourself. One already out of the traps went for

    acey milan 11/1

    These are not bets for this thread just supplying people some reading material (QC maybe) or loo-paper

    Last edited by the dope; 19-01-2021 at 20:19.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

  24. #19
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    Anyone fluttering around Southwell tonight

    Archimedes
    Tue 19th Jan 2021
    19:10, Southwell
    DEC Odds: 12.5 (Betfair Exc)



    Ran a top race last time when a running on second here to a horse that looks ahead of the handicapper. Normally comes good around this time of the year and was well clear of the third the last day. Nick Vedder probably the one to beat, but that won was beaten as a short favourite on Sunday so that gives us all hope - we look the value in the race.
    May The Sixth
    Tue 19th Jan 2021
    19:10, Southwell
    DEC Odds: 21 (Betfair Exc)



    Only win has come at Wolves, but has run some fair races here at Southwell and acts well enough on the surface here. Down another 3lbs here helps and Luke Morris is back riding. She's also been staying on well over 5f so this step up to 6f for the first time in her career can hopefully eke out some more improvement.
    Shackabooah
    Tue 19th Jan 2021
    19:10, Southwell
    DEC Odds: 17.5 (Betfair Exc)



    Ran here on Sunday in a much better race. Dropped a pound and Jonathan takes off 5lbs so we are 6lbs better off here. Also dropped two grades here will help. Only had 4 career runs so certainly a horse that will have more to come, so be happy with an improved effort here.
    Julia Feilden
    Engrave
    Wed 20th Jan 2021
    18:00, Southwell



    Ran well on Fibresand debut last time and looked like she will be suited by a step up to 1m4f. She reamins in good form at home so we would hope she has every chance of winning again.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

  25. #20
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    Newcastle 2.55 Gylo 9/2 2pts win
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

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