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Thread: Coronavirus watch

  1. #1
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    Coronavirus watch

    All doom and gloom at the moment and I don't want to add to it but, following a discussion in another thread, I thought it might be worth highlighting any good news and also follow the trends around the world so that we may be able to see when we're over the worst and there may be light at the end of the tunnel.

    Bits of good news today regarding trials all around the world for an antivirus. That's going to be no quick job, even if someone finds one that works tomorrow it would probably take half a year for it to be produced and available in numbers (even given that a lot of the clinical licencing obstacles would be bypassed). The first person with the virus is apparently being given an existing drug today to see how that impacts on it.

    Although no figures can be entirely trusted, Worldometers has been suggested as one to watch. Wikipedia also have excellent breakdowns by country.

    As we are mainly interesting in Ireland and UK, we can focus on them. As per the discussion yesterday, UK stood at 39 cases per million and Ireland at an even higher 59 cases per million. Today's figures show UK with an additional 643 cases (3269 total) and 40 deaths (144 total) increasing the cases per million to 48. Ireland is showing as an additional 191 cases (557 total) and 1 death (3 in total) taking them to 113 cases per million. The important figures in the next few weeks may be number of deaths compared to the number of recoveries, and that figure should settle down when we have more recovery data to go on.

    Now here's the good news. China (with all the mistrust that goes with that but we have to use figures from somewhere) reported that the only new cases in the country were people returning from other countries which has to be at least a sliver of optimism to cling on to. China are now over the worst and are having many more times the people recovering than new cases every day. This has driven down the number of "active" cases from over 20,000 just a dozen days ago to just over 7,000. It's been almost exactly two months since the number of cases clicked over 100. UK went over that figure on 4th of March and Ireland ten days later. Does that mean we can hope for the downturn to start in early may? We can hope can't we?

    Despite the criticism of the inaction of the British government, of the three European countries closes to them in terms of population and geography, only France's figures are looking any like as effective. Two weeks after tipping over that 100 cases figure, UK figures are 3269 and 144 dead. At the same two week stage, Italy's figures were double the cases and double the deaths and Spain were even worse.

    Italy have now overtaken China in number of deaths and there are signs that Spain's figures (despite the lockdown measures) could end up being even worse than both of them.

    After Spain and Italy reached the stage that UK is now in, the trajectory really took off with three to four hundred deaths over the following three days. This week's "one to watch" is whether the UK now stays below that figure between tomorrow and Sunday to give us some hope that we aren't going to follow that curve.

    Just let us have some fucking good news for a change

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    big jump here yesterday - which they say is due to them testing more.

    maybe the answer to all this is to tell everyone over 65 and with health conditions to stay indoors and let everyone else carry on as normal..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    big jump here yesterday - which they say is due to them testing more.

    maybe the answer to all this is to tell everyone over 65 and with health conditions to stay indoors and let everyone else carry on as normal..
    They can stay indoors but a lot of them will need to have carers and nurses etc visiting them, not to mention relatives and friends under 65 so if they would be carrying on as normal, they would eventually get it passed to them anyway

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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    They can stay indoors but a lot of them will need to have carers and nurses etc visiting them, not to mention relatives and friends under 65 so if they would be carrying on as normal, they would eventually get it passed to them anyway
    just tell them no friends etc to visit obviously carers/nurses would have to visit. When everyone else is after getting it and after getting over it they could relax the rules as the ventilators and doctors would be there to treat them.

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    It looks like England€ are closing pubs restaurants etc after talking with Irish government last night! Let’s hope this curve will b3 flattened in a few weeks time. Umpteen deaths today in Spain. No numbers from here today but I presume it will be a big figure as we have stepped up testing here today.

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    126 extra cases for us today we are up to 683. Umpteen deaths in Italy today so blooming ��

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    Just saw something online and England are more or less on the same figures as Italy just 2 weeks behind.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    Just saw something online and England are more or less on the same figures as Italy just 2 weeks behind.

    Italy are currently reporting 4032 deaths, UK 177. Would anyone put money in the UK having 4032 deaths in two week’s time? I certainty wouldn’t but these are uncertain times and times where any idiot can look at the figures and make them say whatever they like. Spain is the place to be watching. I think their deaths will overtake Italy’s figures.

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    The amount of people dying daily now in France/italy and Spain is frightening - Germany’s figures are not bad in comparison. It’s hard to work out why this is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    The amount of people dying daily now in France/italy and Spain is frightening - Germany’s figures are not bad in comparison. It’s hard to work out why this is.
    That's the worrying thing. This thing is defying logic. If they could find out why it behaved differently in different countries, we might be at least at the start of the path to a way back.

    The answer is mass testing but we just don't have the kit available. South Korea have testing kits everywhere which means the positive tests are obviously rising but the death rate is running steady at an average of around 4 per day or something so they haven't seen the massive spike that others have seen.

    Let's hope that someone finds the key to it all soon.

    Would be nice to see Italy's figures slowing down for a start.

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    Meanwhile at the other end of the tunnel

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-...-head-outdoors

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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    Italy are currently reporting 4032 deaths, UK 177. Would anyone put money in the UK having 4032 deaths in two week’s time? I certainty wouldn’t but these are uncertain times and times where any idiot can look at the figures and make them say whatever they like. Spain is the place to be watching. I think their deaths will overtake Italy’s figures.
    "21 days after their first case of #Covid_19 Italy had 79 cases in total.21 days after Ireland’s first case we have 683 cases in total."



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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    "21 days after their first case of #Covid_19 Italy had 79 cases in total.21 days after Ireland’s first case we have 683 cases in total."



    As I've said before, more testing automatically means more cases. It's not necessarily a bad thing. Personally, I'll be more interested (once we get enough numbers to make the figures meaningful) in the number of people dying compared to the number of people recovering.

    Although it is interesting that both China and South Korea are now having more people recovering than the number of new cases, meaning that the number of "active" cases is dropping. China dropped from 60,000 to about 6,000 and SK has dropped from about 7,400 to about 6,000 despite extending more and more testing and having loads of new cases everyday.

    All cause for optimism. The bad news is Italy and Spain and I still say that UK will not reach the extent that they do.

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    Okish number for us today. America +14000 cases and good old trump not locking down country. I just hope London isn’t as bad. We have 27 in intensive care which is worrying. Pictures of beaches and walks mobbed with people is alarming.. what’s wrong with people? My 2 kids were out side playing today and a neighbour’s kid came out and wouldn’t stay the 2 meters away so my 2 had to come in.

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    I'm still happy (that's not the right word) satisfied, that the UK figures are showing (if looked at properly) that the UK will not be as bad as Italy (which some idiot journalist even repeated at Boris's press conference this evening) or Spain (which show all the signs of being the worst hit country in Europe taking into account their population is lower than Italy as well)

    Of course, Jombo has hit the nail on the head in his post above. We haven't yet reached the point where every available ventilator is being used. Once you reach that point, the death rate rises quickly as there is nothing to be done other than to choose which cases are going to die. Based on all the figures that I can get hold of, I put that figure at around 20,000 active cases for the UK. The figure currently stands at around 5,300 but obviously the new cases keep on coming and the recovery rate for those that have it is very slow.

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    I don't know if it's changed but a quick google returned a link from 2018 that said that there were 97 intensive care beds in Ireland. Obviously, the majority of those will already be in use with non Coronavirus cases so it can't be long until they are all in use.

    I don't know whether I've mentioned on here but an Italian doctor warned the UK that, as some stage 1 out of every 10 cases would probably end up needing intensive care and the experience of other countries has made that figure look pretty realistic. I think Ireland are going to reach crunch stage before the UK. Everything crossed for you guys and your families

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    We have over 200 ventilators I think and we are getting 250 next week and then 80 a week for next while I think. A place in Galway manufactures them apparently. Well that’s what they say Anyhew. Our death rate will rise soon as 14 people are infected in a nursing home. I read something that said that 80% of the people on ventilators died in China.

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    I cant understand why they don’t start having more interviews with people who have recovered and also putting numbers on people that have recovered as all news bulletins are so depressing

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    I cant understand why they don’t start having more interviews with people who have recovered and also putting numbers on people that have recovered as all news bulletins are so depressing

    I agree with this. The number of people who have the virus isn't really relevant anymore. The number of active cases is but, as you say, more focus should be put on the recovery figures and the fact that less than 1% of the population is likely to die. LESS THAN 1%. But then again, we don't want people to be to get complacent I suppose

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    For anyone who is wondering why Germany appears to be doing well in terms of deaths compared to other countries. The key point, as I’ve said before, is the moment that all the ventilators become occupied. Germany is the only country in Europe that has over 25 “Critical care beds” per 100,000 of its population.
    I don’t think this link will work but if you Google “FT intensive care beds by country” you will see a full breakdown. It’s not particularly flattering for the UK but it certainly explains why Germany has had over 15 times more infections than Portugal (the lowest IC beds per capita) but less than 7 times as many deaths so far.

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