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Thread: Long shot Saturday

  1. #1
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    Long shot Saturday

    3:15 Ripon
    Lancelot Du Loc, showed a bit last week and I got a nice surprise when I had a look at his form on soft ground. He is certainly a lot better. His draw should be fine .
    2 Points EW 6 places Paddy/hills
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  2. #2
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    3:35 Newbury
    Librisa Breeze , is actually the best of these on his best form and has a good record fresh and likes soft ground. Not much more reason needed to have a go at a huge price.
    1 Point win 22/1 generally
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    2:05 Ripon
    Orions Bow is a cliff horse for many, but thankfully I haven’t wasted too many bets on him before this. If he puts in in he may have a shout here, and when I go through the field a I can’t see any of them winning.
    1 Point ew 33/1 5 places.
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    3:00 York
    Norway hasn’t often been ridden with winning in mind, but still has bags of potential. There isn’t a lot between any of these and he has the best form in the book. 14/1 in a 5 horse race is madness
    2 Points win 14/1 Generally.
    3:35 York
    Circus Maximus comes out 2nd best of these on ratings and he is a tough as it gets. I think he can out battle everything else maybe bar the fav here and 6/1 w/o the fav is possibly twice he’s real price here, and in fact he may well go off at that price to win.
    3 Points win 6/1 w/o fav 365 and others.
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  5. #5
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    1:55 York

    Foolad has some very good course form and is back to a workable mark here.


    1Point EW 6 place 33/1 paddy 40/1 5 places elsewhere


    4:15

    Clever Cookie, has some decent form first time out, and altough he isnt getting any younger he has been given a change by the handicapper if he is on a going day
    .

    1 Point EW 5 polace 66/1 Paddy/betfair/unibet
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  6. #6
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    3:35
    I’m hoping battash wins here but Ornate should outrun his odds here . This fast 5 will suit him. Anyone with 365 could go 50/1 with 5 places which looks a great bet . I’m going 100/1 with 3.
    1 pt ew 100/1 gen
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  7. #7
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    Down Royal 5:45
    Utah is a horse I noticed running better here 2 runs ago than his finish indicated. He is of a nice mark with a step up in trip and Colin Keane booked. 40/1 with 4 places is well worth a bet
    1 Point EW 40/1 4 places lads/hills
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    Sandown 1:50
    Gracious John, returned to form last time considering he was way too far back half way through he race. He is on a great mark with a good 7lbs claimer on. There is a decent chance he’ll bounce back for Ian Williams.
    2 Points win 14/1 365/betfair/paddy
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  9. #9
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    Gone for a big price EW Lucky15 Today




    2:45 Ascot Kimifive 20/1

    3:35 Haydock Clever Cookie 33/1

    4:10 Haydock So Perfect 25/1

    2:20 Navan Mi Esperanza 40/1




    5 Places cant be got on all but So Perfect.




    Total Advised Spend 6 Points
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  11. #10
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    Longchamp 2:50




    As much as I think Circus just wins and is probably value at 9/2 Olmedo is even more overpriced here at 20 on Betfair. There is very little between him and the top of the market here on form.




    1 Point win 20 Betfair Exch
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  12. #11
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    Listowel 4:15




    I was going to give this race a long look, but I've landed straight on the value here in Barra at a big price. She was backed in Galway but everything went wrong from the start. I think she is better on soft.




    2 Points EW 33/1 365
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    1:50 Doncaster
    Konchek has looked like he will be suited by a step back in trip and he improved last time. 3y’o have been winning everything and he is the only on in the field. I’ve actually gone for 30/1 5 places with 365, in the extra place specials market.
    1 Point EW 30/1 5 places 365.
    3:00 Doncaster
    Royal Dornoch is 3lbs better off with Threat for his run at Goodwood, when he was on the wrong side but really caught the eye. If he improves on that he’ll get close to treat.
    1 Point win 25/1 generally
    3:00 Doncaster




    Royal Dornoch I'm going to add an additional 1 point win at 14/1 w/o fav here in a few places.





    3:35 Doncaster
    Western Australia, is a horse I expected to get value with this year at some stage, and this looks to be that time. We’ll our fate early if he goes too fast in front but if not he can get involved in the finish here at a huge price. His 2 yo form is very good.
    2 Points EW 66/1 Gen
    3:40 Leopardstown
    Norway is the best horse in this race, we’ve missed the 10/1 but 8/1 is still value. He surly won’t go haring off in front here.
    2 Points win 8/1 365
    4:15 Leopardstown
    Anthony Van Dyke is clearly the 2nd best horse in this race if we can ignore his last poor run. He has a turn of foot at the end of his races and I think this race will suit him. We’ll go with a win and a w/o bet here.
    1 Point win 12/1 Gen 2 Points w/o Magical 15/2 365/lads
    Last edited by aidankk; 14-09-2019 at 10:08.
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  15. #13
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    1:50 Donc




    After getting all my bets on I've just realized that Muthmir has huge change here. Eye catching run at Ascot a while ago.




    1 Point win 16/1
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    5:25 Leop




    This race could setup perfectly for Just Wonderful. It should be a mad pace up front and if she gets back to form she will be closing fast.




    1 Point win 25/1
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  17. #15
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    2:25 Curragh
    Invincible Army, traveled as well as anything on his last run and I think he got found out by the soft ground. This trip could be right up his street.
    2 Points win 12/1 Various
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  18. #16
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    3:35 Curragh
    Iberia’s Maiden win has worked out really well. He may not have been suited by softer ground on his last run and was the subject of a gamble. My gut is he may not be too far away from his stable companions here.
    1 Point ew 40/1 Gen
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  19. #17
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    4:10 Curragh
    Capri was trained for the Gold cup and he didn’t stay. His last run was a nice enough trial after a break and I think he has a huge chance here, given normal improvement. This is a Max bet for me
    3 Points EW 16/1 VC/365
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  20. #18
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    1:20 Curragh
    Well go for 1 from each side here. Tresorier won his side in this last year and has had very few runs since, this surely has been the plan. Ardhoomey has plenty of runs this year that make a mark of 97 well within his grasp
    1 Point EW 33/1 6 places Tresorier
    1 Point EW 20/1 5 places Ardhoomey
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