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Thread: ONE FOR THE NOTEBOOK

  1. #21
    Registered Member Pat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pat View Post
    Search For A Song. Know she was odds on to win today but the way she won was impressive and she is one to keep on our sides. Weld has another good one on his hands there is say.
    Entered up in a listed race at naas on Wednesday. See how the field cuts up. May not even run.

  2. #22
    Registered Member Pat's Avatar
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    One too good on the day think she is a good one though and will win her share of them.

  3. #23
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    Have to add Triple Distilled to the tracker after that shambles yesterday - should have won pulling up.

  4. #24
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    Following comments by Jombo and QC - Had a look back and have to add in very unlucky loser here - All dressed up and nowhere to go 2.15 Hamilton : Nicholas T.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    Following comments by Jombo and QC - Had a look back and have to add in very unlucky loser here - All dressed up and nowhere to go 2.15 Hamilton : Nicholas T.
    The problem with this one mate is that everyone has seen it now. And therefore it isnt gonna be a big price next time. Theres a couple of races coming up soon at Ayr and it is almost certain to go there.
    You know i like to try and find them while they are still under the radar. This one isnt now.
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 03-07-2019 at 08:49.

  6. #26
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    Yeah I know - but you can say nearly the same thing about everything on this thread - they have shown something - but still people seem to forget sometimes and you may get a reasonable price - and sometimes it is not the next time out as may be held back to let memories fade a bit.

  7. #27
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    The horse has ran in the Glasgow Fair handicap at Ayr for the last three years. This years race takes place on Monday 15th. That is deffo where you will see him next. He has been denied a clear run in the last two runnings of the race and in reality, should have won them both. He ran off 89 last season and 90 the year before. He is no doubt gonna go up a few pounds after yesterdays effort but it should only take him to around 84.

    If you get the time, have a look at those two runs.

  8. #28
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    Thanks I will
    Sounds like he is as unlucky as me ...

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    Yeah I know - but you can say nearly the same thing about everything on this thread - they have shown something - but still people seem to forget sometimes and you may get a reasonable price - and sometimes it is not the next time out as may be held back to let memories fade a bit.
    Also, from my experience, I think people will tend to make a note of them but, depending on the race they’re entered in next, they must talk themselves out of backing it- stepping up in trip, unproven on the ground, change of jockey, gone up a couple of pounds. So they are always worth noting down because you’ll often see young improving horses finish a good 2nd in a race well clear of the rest and be well supported next time out and run well but not win and then step up in grade or trip and end up winning at a good each way price seemingly unfancied.

    Note em all down and decide whether or not to put your dosh down when the prices come out is my philosophy. Not everyone sees what you see and iv been amazed at times at the prices that some of the ones ive spotted in running have gone on to win at two or three times the price that I’d have expected.
    The other thing im convinced of is that people dismiss horses too easily based on a number in their recent form without knowing that there may well be a reasonable excuse for why they weren’t at their best. Comments like “slow away” or “boxed in” don’t tell u everything that ur own eyes will and often you will see why a horse hasn’t ran its race but there will be no comments in the summary on the RP or Sporting Life or whatever site you favour.

    None if this is news to any of you I know but because some people on here spend a large amount of time studying, it’s easy to forget that the vast majority of punters don’t have the time, inclination or brain cells to invest as you do and they may (hopefully) end up with a different assessment of the horse in your notebook than the one that you have.
    Last edited by ONEDUNME; 03-07-2019 at 14:01.

  10. 2 Thanks from:
    Assassin, clancy

  11. #30
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    Today is a classic example of what I'm talking about and how everyone doesn't see the same thing. I watched Jungle Secret make a cracking debut on the all weather in December after going odds-on in running and finishing 2nd at 3/1. Second race (also all weather) a small field, granted but it was slow away and made up good ground at the end. Nothing massively sparkling but confirming my thoughts that it was an OK horse (especially if it could break better than it did that day).

    As it turned out, not only the horse that finished second in that race come out and win next time but the horse behind it then won two out of its next three races.

    Fast forward to the next race, its first run on turf and it's first run over 7 furlongs. I backed it and it finished a sorry 10th of 12, again being slow out of the stalls. So I have a horse that can't be guaranteed to break well but looks like it could be OK if it does happen to. Hollie Doyle never put it into the race realising that its chances were lost with the poor break.

    So it rolls up today at Muselbro, back to 6 furlongs (which it has ran well at before) given a rating of 55. The handicappers are no mugs but if they've based that rating largely on its only run on turf then it's got to have a chance I'm thinking. Granted, the going is an unknown (but dropped down to a class6 race) and, I'm not gonna lie, the fact that it drifted from 5/2 the previous night to 8/1 at the off indicated that there was no confidence in a win today (and my confidence has disappeared gradually in line with the drift in price). So what happens, it breaks in an average fashion, is rousted along early and then made to settle, runs and bit green at the end and is possibly carried right at the end by the winner but finishes a creditable second, beaten in a duel for the line by a horse that has finished plumb last in every one of its four starts so far and traded 100/1 in running (Is Les Eyre known for being a, shell we say, shrewd trainer?)

    As the price last night was 5/2, I've backed it to win and not each way and have therefore blown my dough and am down on the animal to date but the next time it's out (possibly at 7furlongs again) my money will be down again and my fingers firmly crossed for a good run, assuming that the handicapper doesn't bung it up by too much.

    I suppose I haven't picked a great example as I've still ended up losing money but the battle at the end of the race could easily have gone the other way and I'd be well in profit. The point remains the same. In my view it was a horse that looked like it could win a race soon - most didn't see it that way. Some you win, some you lose but if you make enough of the right calls, you will end up in profit.

  12. #31
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    QUOTE
    "I suppose I haven't picked a great example as I've still ended up losing money but the battle at the end of the race could easily have gone the other way and I'd be well in profit. The point remains the same. In my view it was a horse that looked like it could win a race soon - most didn't see it that way. Some you win, some you lose but if you make enough of the right calls, you will end up in profit.

    Totally correct but a patient approach is needed. Chasing is NOT an option.



  13. #32
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    Adding Grey Galleon from 5.50 Kempton yesterday - Left with impossible task and finished strongly - little jockette very feeble.
    Last edited by clancy; 04-07-2019 at 08:28.

  14. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    Adding Grey Galleon from 5.50 Kempton yesterday - Left with impossible task and finished strongly - little jockette very feeble.
    I am not too sure this one was tho. I think this is the way it is normally ridden reminds me a bit of Athletico who nearly always looks unlucky in running.

  15. #34
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    Noted - will look back at races.

  16. #35
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    I noted Tom Dooley 4.20 Yar for some reason - probably because it only opened 8/1 on first UK run when it should have been any price.

    Racing Post says 'one to avoid' and is probably right.

    Planted itself in stalls last time.

    But it had ability - won 8 times - but last time 2017. Was not beaten all that far last race Dundalk although finished 11th of 12.

    50/1 outsider of the field across the board - but I had a little bet just in case.

  17. #36
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    320/1 on Betfair told the story.

  18. #37
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    Nicholas T declared for Ayr Sunday

  19. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    Nicholas T declared for Ayr Sunday
    He is mate. Following the same path as last year.

  20. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    He is mate. Following the same path as last year.
    what price would you have him at? I suppose he will be 9/4 or thereabouts.

  21. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    what price would you have him at? I suppose he will be 9/4 or thereabouts.
    I'm still doing tomorrows mate. If i get chance i will try and do it later this afternoon.

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