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Thread: Long Shot Saturday

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    It was a non runner this day. And today it goes and wins. Mrs Crossett backed the fav but had a saver on him. And it touched 25's with some firms earlier .
    just saw it , its an understatement to say I'm livid . Fir f sake all the donkeys I put up on the flat
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  2. #22
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    2:25 Cheltenham
    When I first looked at this race I thought I had found one of the bets of the season already. On subsequent looks in reality this is one of the best handicaps I’ve seen in a number of years. I’ll still go with my selection for this all week Romain De Senam. He was 5th in this last year on probably unsuitable soft ground of 7lbs higher. He has 2 runs already this season which should set him right for this and I would have him quite short to place here. The 7 places in paddy is huge value for this horse in particular.
    2 Points EW 28/1 7 places Paddy Power
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  3. #23
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    Saturday TV Longshot EW Lucky 15
    1:50 Rock on Rocky 25/1 (Course Form)
    2:25 West Approach 40/1 (Sure Stayer)
    3:00 Flying Angel 20/1 (Gut Feeling)
    3:35 Mohaayed 20/1 (class Edge)

    I did it with Paddy with extra places last 2 races. Total Spend 6 Points
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  4. #24
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    2:40 Haydock
    Splash of Ginge looks to have his conditions here and this doesnít looks the strongest renewal. He can run his race of this mark and 14/1 looks value
    1 Point win 14/1 Generally
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  5. #25
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    3:00 leop
    Arkwrisht is going to win one of these and was running well last time until a mistake in a similar race . 33/1 is value we're sure to get a good run for our money .
    2 points ew 6 places 33/1 Boyle . 6 places 365 30/1
    Scoir Mear has been a frustrating horse for many, but i think he might be value now. The step up in trip will suit and he is of a nice low weight here. Im sure he'll be involved in the finish and 28/1 with 7 places if value.
    1 Point EW 7 places 28/1 paddy
    2:50 Welsh National
    Holly Bush Henry is a young horse in form that loves soft ground and looked last time as if a further step up in trip would suit. I think he is a big price here and is very consistent of around this mark in good races.
    1 Pt EW 33/1 7 places sky 6 places others
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  6. #26
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    3:00 Leopardstown
    I think Road to Respect seems to be in top form this year and id expect him to win. I’m looking in the w/o markets for value here. First of all Coney Islandsbest form is on decent ground and I’m as sure as I can be that he will run well today after a nice pipe opener over hurdles. 18/1 w/o RTR is very good value with bet365, he is also 14/1 w/o RTR and Bellshill. I’m sure that in form he is better than most of them above him in the market. In addition Anibale Fly has the actual best form on offer here when 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold cup and a repeat of that here would be enough to win as he is sure to be staying on better than anything else. With him I’ll go just go win a win only bet as it’s the best value.
    Coney Island 2 Points win 18/1 w/o RTR 16/1 generally
    Anibale Fly 1 Point win 14/1 generally
    Limerick 1:05
    This race will suit Aurora Bell a lot more than his first run back after a very long break. He needs soft and at least this trip. If he is better for that run hell get involved here at a decent looking price.
    1 Point win 16/1 @paddypower @Betfair



    Leopardstown 12:45
    Plinth has been in better from that his figures indicate lately and if he stays this trip which looks likely to me 40/1 with 6 places is just huge. I think he could have a bit too much pace for most of these and his chances of getting in the 6 are more like 3/1 that the 8/1 we get there. In Addition Satoshi looks to be well in to my eye. He has looked as if a step up in trip will suit and is carrying almost nothing here. Some of his maiden form has worked out a lot better than a 123 rating would suggest.
    2 Points EW Plinth 40/1 6 places paddy 5 places elsewhere
    2 Points EW Satoshi 25/1 6 places paddy 5 places elsewhere
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  7. #27
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    Gone for a few days, but
    Leop 2:30 Saturday
    Petit Mouchoir is one of my few horses for the season to follow. On Hurdles form he is maybe 2nd best here behind Melon. If he is anywhere near right 33/1 is going to look huge.

    1 Point win 33/1 Boyles 28/1 365/sky/vc
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  8. #28
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    Sandown 3:00
    I’ve missed the price slightly but i think Halo Moon is pretty short to get involved here. He is on a decent mark and ran well in a similar race last year. He is getting a fair amount of weight from everything
    1 Pt EW 28/1 6 places SKY 25/1 @paddypower

    Wincanton 2:40
    I don’t need a lot of encouragement to go for a 3 figure price. Gallic Destinywas a decent flat horse and probably went to high in handicap mark before a few bad runs and a long time of the track. He ran with a tiny bit of promise on his first run back and if he improved it’s not totally out of the question he can get involved of this mark. 100/1 makes with worthwhile especially with the extra places on offer in most bookies.
    1 Point EW 100/1 4 places Paddy/Betfair 80/1 4 places elsewhere
    3:25 Sandown
    Eragon De Chanay looks a bit overpriced here given his course record. He is 2-3 here and is a decent price because of a poor run here last time out. Ill forgive him that run for the 10/1 in this race.
    1 Point win 10/1 Generally
    Cork 1:55
    This looks a step down in class for Jett, along with going back over hurdles a stone lower than his chase mark. Surly he has to go close here and 14/1 is very big.
    2 Points win 14/1lads/vc/coral/boyles
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  9. #29
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    @CheltenhamRaces 1:50

    Casse Tete is interesting here at a big price. He ran well at the festival last year when not staying 3 miles and has a decent record of winning when down to a reasonable mark. He has jumped poorly this year but if that can be sorted, he could well go close here.
    1 Point EW 20/1 5 places Hills 4 places Paddy

    @CheltenhamRaces 3:25
    I’m going to forgive Sam Spinner his last 2 runs and give him a chance here at a price that’s worth the gamble. The top of the market looks weak apart from Black Ops. 14/1 is too big and if he does win 33/1 is massive in the Stayers Hurdle.
    2 Points win 14/1 hill/betfair
    Ĺ Point win 33/1 NRNB Stayers 365
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  10. #30
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    3:00 Chelt
    No matter where you look the form of Jarvey's Plate is top class. He was beaten just by a grade 1 winner, horses he has beaten have won since. He should be fairly short here and 3/1 seems great value.
    2 Points win 3/1 paddy/sky/vc/
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  11. #31
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    Punchestown 1:45

    This tip has been brewing for a while. Bay of Freedom really enjoyed the 2 runs over banks at Cheltenham and just didn't stay. He travelled really well in those races and they were far stronger than this one. We should have something to shout for turning for home here. This race can’t be as quick as the Cheltenham ones, which turned into a sprint. 40/1 looks massive for a 16/1 chance
    2 Points EW 40/1 365 ľ place 40/1 1/5th hills/vc
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