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Thread: Longshot Value Flat 2018

  1. #1
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    Longshot Value Flat 2018

    2000 Guineas Ante Post

    I think U S Navy Flag was the best 2 year old last year. His win in the Dewhurst was outstanding and itís an easy pick to go for him at 20/1 for the 2000. The ground will more than likely be good, we can easily forget his seasonal opener on heavy ground and even that will put him right for the big day. In fact I think he is a horse that needs to be ready early to take advantage of his experience over other less experienced colts. 20/1 is massive.


    2 Points win 20/1 paddy/sky/betfair/boyles
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  2. #2
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    3:35 Newmarket
    This looks a poor enough 2000, and I think the 2 main AOB hopes have to many negatives for the price. I do like Murrillo as a horse. He looked green last year but still has some very good form. The better ground here will certainly give him a better chance and I wouldn’t be surprised if he could get involved here. We are of course betting on that he isn’t a pure pacemaker but were getting enough of a price to factor that in.
    1 Point EW 50/1 4 places paddy/betfair/lads
    2:20 Newmarket
    This looks a very poor renewal and on form alone Mirza has as good a chance as any of these. He is 11 but was near top form last year. He has also performed well in most of his first time out races. 25/1 is too big in a race where most of them are about the same standard. We’ll have a bet w/o the fav here as well just in case he runs to his mark.
    1 Point win 25/1 Generally
    1 Point win 16/1 w/o Havana grey 365/hills
    2:55 Newmarket
    I don’t think Defoe has really beaten anything of note and it looks entirely possible that Count Octave is a better horse. His run in a top-class Ledger last year where he didn’t really stay in the softer ground really looks good in the context of this race and I can’t have the difference in price.
    2 Points win 13/2 Vario
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    3:55 Uttoxeter
    Doesnít American just win here. He has a huge amount in hand and I donít think he would be going here without being in form. His rider has a great strike rate for the trainer, and I just think he is far too classy for a race like this. Iím also pretty sure the good/soft will suite him.
    2 Points win 5/1 generally
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    1:50 Newmarket
    Battle of Marathon has been in fine form on the All Weather will have a bit in hand on a few of these fitness wise and is capable of a mark of 100 if everything goes right for him. 66/1 is worth the risk
    1 Point EW 66/1 various
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    3:35 Newmarket

    IF we ignore Madeline’s run in the Breeders Cup where she met all kinds of trouble in running, I think she could be in with a small squeak here. Her 3rd behind Clemmie, and Different League could be some of the best form on offer here, and in that I think she may be better over this trip. 80/1 with 4 places Is huge.

    2 Points EW 80/1 4 places Paddy/lads/fred/tote
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    2:55 Newmarket
    It looks a bit early to write off Tis Marvellous. He ran well first time out in Mayden and if we forgive him his second run there he stands a chance here of 100. 33/1 is too big for a horse with plenty of potential still.
    1 Point EW 33/1 Generally
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    Chester Vase 3:35
    Everything has its price and even though he is drawn wide and had a poor run first time out this season, Vent De Force has plenty of form over the last few years which will give him a shout here of a mark of 100 and a price of 66/1. The Positives outweigh the negatives at that price. There wouldn’t be a lot between him and the likes of Fun Mac who is only 12/1.
    1 Point EW 66/1 5 places VC/Paddy
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    Ascot 4:00
    Masham Star looks a good start in trying to find value here. He is on a very good mark and if we ignore his last run he is well capable of getting involved here at a big price. He has plenty of very good handicap form of marks in or around 100 to make his mark of 88 today very interesting. 33/1 is value. In order to go for one on each side in having a stab at Mr Scaramanga at a huge price drawn 1. He has been in good form this year on the all-weather easily running to his mark here. I wouldn’t be too surprised if he reproduced some decent course form here.
    2 Points EW 33/1 6 places Masham Star Paddy/sky/lads/coral
    1 Point EW 50/1 6 places Mr Scaramanga Paddy/lads/coral
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    Haydock 2:00
    Viconte Du Noyer just canít be ignored here of a very low hurdles mark. Especially since he came back to form a bit last time at punchestown. He is totally unexposed over hurdles at this trip and he certainly stays this far over fences. 22/1 is easily worth the risk here.
    2 Points win 22/1 365/sky/betway/vc
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    Longchamp 2:35
    I’m not often this surprised to see a price, but I fell of my seat when I saw that Us Navy Flag was 10/1 for the French 2000. The Ground is decent over a fast mile. It think its tailor made for him . I’m not that convinced with the French Opposition, and we can totally write off his seasonal opener in heavy group. We won’t see a better 10/1 shot all year, there is a decent chance he never see another horse.
    3 Points win 10/1 paddy/betfair
    Last edited by aidankk; 13-05-2018 at 10:08.
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  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by aidankk View Post
    Longchamp 2:35
    I’m not often this surprised to see a price, but I fell of my seat when I saw that Us Navy Flag was 10/1 for the French 2000. The Ground is decent over a fast mile. It think its tailor made for him . I’m not that convinced with the French Opposition, and we can totally write off his seasonal opener in heavy group. We won’t see a better 10/1 shot all year, there is a decent chance he never see another horse.
    3 Points win 10/1 paddy/betfair
    Must admit when i first looked at the race I was shocked at the price but then when I looked at some of the form of the French breds I decided maybe not, Rice Roll trounced Cardsharp recently who was a very decent UK 2 yr old last year. Magic Bibou was staying on it that race and is my e/w bet at 40/1

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    2:55
    Danzeno is fit from running in Meyden and showed up well last time out when running to a mark better than his 102 here. Anytime he has come down to around this mark he has been competitive in handicaps and i cant see anything that changes that now. To me he looks to have a class advantage here. He actually seems like the most likely winner and is value at 12/1 .
    2 Points win 12/1 Generally
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    5:35
    Ghayyar looks a decent middle distance prospect when he won his maiden in Newmarket at 2. He has been a disappointment since really, but has changed stables to a trainer who goes well here, and did catch the eye a bit first time out this year on unsuitable soft ground. This ground and trip could well bring a bit of improvement and claw back some untapped potential. Heís easily worth the risk at 66/1
    1 Point EW 66/1 Generally
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    3:40 Newbury.
    War Decree although at times looking like a bit of a stayer, in my mind will be far more suited to this fast 1 mile of fast ground that anything he has raced on since he was a 2yo. He has some reasonable form but is relatively unexposed over this trip and I think 66/1 is decent value. The market seems all wrong to me and I’d love to see Lancaster Bomber win but I’d have been hoping for a bigger price.
    1 Point EW 66/1 4 Places paddy VC
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  15. #15
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    Auteuil 3:15
    I've had a look at the last 2 running's of this and the winner of both of these So French won them pretty easily, and beat most of these running today. He has had a significant injury and is back here under a cloud. 3m6furlongs on Good-Soft ground in my mind is exactly what Djakadam wants. He stays forever but probably doesn't really have a finishing kick over any trip. The way these races are run i don't think he will need it, as his cruising speed may well be too much for most of these. I went through every horse with a chance to find some collateral form and eventually found in the the name of Alary. French chasers have always been behind the British and Irish ones in my opinion. There is some odd fences but nothing to silly, and Djakadam is a superb jumper in the main. Heart ruling head but so be it.
    2 Points win 8/1 paddy/betfair/lads and others
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    6:00
    Golden Nectar was improving this year until he stepped up in trip and didn’t stay last time out. He is still an relatively unexposed horse and of a mark of 70 here is certainly of interest at 50/1 and 4 places.
    1 Point EW 50/1 4 places lads/ betway/betfred
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  17. #17
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    Aidan, are u still following Dinkum Diamond or is it a lost cause?

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by typhoon View Post
    Aidan, are u still following Dinkum Diamond or is it a lost cause?
    Most Horses are a lost cause at this stage .. He'd want to be a big price for me to have any intenerest.
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