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Thread: Cheltenham 2017

  1. #1
    Ex-Administrator Flyingbolt's Avatar
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    Cheltenham 2017

    What do we think of Petit Mouchoir @ 25/1 for the Champion Hurdle? The market looks a mess to me at the moment with many doubtful runners. I like this fella.

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    Off topic but I'm going for the 1st time !!

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    For what its worth FB, i actually had a look at this race earlier today in one of my many bored spells. I have to admit that i put a line straight through him and cast him to the recycle bin. His record of one win from eight hurdle starts doesnt look great but more of a concern is his jumping. I cant recall a race of his so far where he has looked anything resembling fluent. Add also that he was well beaten on his only start at Cheltenham and you can see why i ditched him. Sorry for the negativity

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    Ex-Administrator Flyingbolt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    ... Sorry for the negativity
    Don't be sorry - I'm a big fan of scepticism! All good points that you make. And you're probably right - you can't win Champion Hurdles jumping like he does. I suppose I'm living in hope that De Bromhead will iron out those issues and that will bring more improvement from the horse. We should see him at Leopardstown next week, so hopefully more info to be gleamed from there.

    Can you give us some of your other brief thoughts on the race if you've time?

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    Good morning FB,

    I spent about an hour on the race and also an hour on the Gold Cup. I'm having some time out this week although i will be getting stuck in later today because the decs will be out for tomorrows Bangor meeting and they have their usual long distance chase on the card and i do love a chasing slog.
    I was looking at it from the angle of only one of Annie Power or Faugheen running and trying to find a few possibles to fill the placings. Yanworth is the first one that you come to in the betting and though they are campaigning him over further at the moment, and he looks as though it suits him better, it would be no surprise to see him go for it, especially if injury rules out the front two. Yorkhill has gone chasing but again, is another could revert back. Nicholls Canyon has obviously got to be on a short list but he is another who can hit one or two during a race. The likes of The New One, Brain Power, Arctic Fire etc dont appeal as possible winners and i looked at one or two bigger price ones. North Hill Harvey wouldnt jump out as a future champion but if you're looking for something at a big price to possibly hit the frame then he should be considered. He is currently only rated 147 so has a lot of improving to do but i know the stable do think a hell of a lot of him. Some people might remember i have mentioned him a few times in the past, especially after his possibly unlucky run in the "Supreme". Dont get me wrong, he would not have beaten Altior, but if he had jumped the second from home cleanly he would have made the frame and may well have finished second. And i know you will point to the fact that he finished one place behind your fancy but as i say, that mistake two out knocked the stuffing out of him. He started this season winning the "Greatwood" and, for me, he is still improving. And that race has proved a fairly decent pointer to horses who improve on to better things and in some cases, actually go on and win the Champion Hurdle. Celtic Shot and Rooster Booster were two winners but if you look at the winners of the "Greatwood", it does make impressive reading. The likes of Atours, Space Trucker, Grey Shot, Westender, Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Khyber Kim, Menorah and Garde La Victoire are just some of them. And i wouldnt give up on Apples Jade just yet. She has looked something special on a couple of occasions and although it was disappointing to see her getting beaten on her first two starts this winter I think it would be unwise to discount her.

    Have a good day mate and happy punting to you all today.

    QC

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    I was in a bit of a rush this morning and forgot to add that if i could choose just one horse to definitely line up in the race it would be Altior. I know he's novice chasing now and there is little chance that he could revert back to hurdles, (unless something goes badly wrong on his next couple of outings), but if he did he would take all the beating. I'm a big fan of his and give him a few favourable mentions in my ramblings last season and it was this time last year that i was putting him up as one to follow.
    But, as FB says, the market is in a bit of a mess at the moment and I for one wouldnt dream of having a bet until the day itself, that is, if i was having a bet at all.

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    Degenerate Member Kickon's Avatar
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    Where would ye position Killultagh Vic in the Gold cup market if fit? Unlikely at this stage but far stranger things have happened
    Carpe Diem!

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    Hello Kickon, hope you're well.
    I'm a fan of the horse but i have to say straight away that i think the Gold Cup trip is possibly beyond him. For those of you who cant remember, he is the last horse to beat the mighty Thistlecrack although i still say that Thistlecrack was a bit unlucky that day. But you all must remember his last fence mistake at Leopardstown in January. I bet the people who layed him at massive prices when he looked as though he had come down do . He wouldnt be for me mate but the best of luck if you get involved.
    Looking at the betting, "Betstars" (???who???) have him at 16/1 ! I think whoever put that price in thought he was doing the place market !

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    Degenerate Member Kickon's Avatar
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    Some excellent form in his book (Thistlecrack the obvious one that spring to mind) but the setback obviously doesn't help. Could you see him in a Ryanair?

    Edit: I'm involved speculatively on him for the GC since around August for the jollies in antepost at 40-33's. The comments from the camp don't bode well though.
    Last edited by Kickon; 21-12-2016 at 19:05.
    Carpe Diem!

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    Funnily enough, as i was typing the previous post i was mentioning to the good lady that i had him down as a 2m 5f/2m 6f type horse and the Ryanair would be ideal for him. He goes on any ground and he has won at Cheltenham. But its his fitness thats the worry and we will just have to see how things go. Fingers crossed.

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    At the moment the bet of the festival seems to be My Tent or Yours 40/1 EW for the Champion.

    Good ground champion hurdle form means more than anything and i think he'll be going and cant be out of the 3 , especially with all the Mullins horses under a cloud.

    I also have a bet on Ar Mad for the Champion Chase at 50/1 and think he looked easily the best of those in the Tingle Creek last time out.
    Twitter Longshotvalue www.longshotvalue.com Pricewise challange

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    I really liked the look of Bravissimo there (1:25 Limerick). Could be a Neptune or Albert Bartlett sort. Bet365 have put him in at 25/1 for the latter. (edit: And 20/1 with Skybet for the former.)

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    Ex-Administrator Flyingbolt's Avatar
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    Gold Cup

    Kickon, I'm also on Killultagh Vic for the GC at a big price. Great minds etc! *cough* While Thistlecrack has been my main bet in the race, I was looking for any dark horses and KV was the only one that worried me. Unfortunately he isn't entered anywhere over the Christmas period, so it's unlikely we'll be seeing him in the Gold Cup anyway, even if he does come back as good as he was.

    Arkle

    QC, agree on Altior. I'm a big fan of his too. Min was excellent yesterday and you could see how chuffed Mullins and Walsh were with him but there's no reason to think that Altior isn't still better. Looking forward to seeing him at Kempton shortly.

    Champion Hurdle

    Thanks for those thoughts last week. Some people were impressed with Yanworth yesterday but not so much myself. He looks good enough to place in an average renewal but I wouldn't be too worried about him if I fancied something else. North Hill Harvey no entries at present but with a mark of 147 they're probably still eyeing a handicap or two. Newbury in February before going to the Champion Hurdle or else straight to the County Hurdle.

  18. #14
    Ex-Administrator Flyingbolt's Avatar
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    Wow Altior. Very impressed. The silly people at BetVictor put him at 7/4 for the Arkle after that so I've availed. I'd make him 4/5 at best.

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    Demi de seuil was very impressive today 9/2 seems a very fair price to me for the triumph. I might invest in it at that as it would have to start shorter if it ran in it . I will decide in the next few days.

    What at price is cue card for the Ryanair? It would seem pointless to me to run it in the gold cup once thistlecrack ran in it.

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    FB - Re North Hill Harvey. I was slightly disappointed not to see him out around this time but then i thought back to last year and i can see a plan developing. Superb Story won the "Greatwood" for Dan Skelton last season and then was off the track until romping home in the County Hurdle. North Hill Harvey won the "Greatwood" for Dan Skelton this season.......................................

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    FB - Petit Mouchoir - That was impressive and it never touched a twig.

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  23. #18
    Ex-Administrator Flyingbolt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    FB - Petit Mouchoir - That was impressive and it never touched a twig.
    Yes it was a lovely win. I was happy to see Cooper go straight to the front to see how'd he jump without other horses around him. Doubtful he'll get such an easy lead at Cheltenham but he's right in the mix now. Cut to 10/1 for the CH and that still seems a bit generous to me. I'd have him just ahead of Yanworth in the betting. It's only really Faugheen to worry about. I don't think Annie Power or VVM will be in the race, unless Faugheen doesn't make it of course.

    And what a price on Petit Mouchoir today. A huge drift out to 6/1. Or 13/2 if your bookie is dumb enough, sorry, kind enough, to pay best odds guaranteed PLUS! Madness.

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    You've obviously been reading one of my latest whinges, moans, rants, call them what you will. Best odds guaranteed is a killer and like i said earlier, they would stop it NOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! if they could. There will be plenty of accounts having their BOG taking off them as we speak.

  25. #20
    Degenerate Member Kickon's Avatar
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    Well played, FB
    Carpe Diem!

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