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Thread: Rambling and Gambling

  1. #6601
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    Too many runners in a lot of the races tomorrow and to be honest, i just give up in the end. I'm looking forward to The Jam Man v Main Fact and also the staying chase at the end of the Haydock card.

  2. #6602
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    The problem with doing that is that the without fav markets are not available on the evening before (I think I'm right in saying) and therefore you run the risk of missing the price so, although it would have paid off twice this week, a lot of the time you will be getting about a quarter of the odds that you could have got on the win bet the night before if the price collapses overnight.
    Back it on the nose the night before as well, of course.

    That goes without saying.

    Only when there's strong favourites and only when the horse is a good price, take a gander at the market.

    Laskadine was 9/2 when it was 11/1 on the nose.
    King Golan was 20/1 when it was 35/1 on the nose.

    Both running against strong favourites.
    Last edited by Gamblor; 20-11-2020 at 15:18.

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  4. #6603
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gamblor View Post
    Back it on the nose the night before as well, of course.

    That goes without saying.

    Only when there's strong favourites and only when the horse is a good price, take a gander at the market.

    Laskadine was 9/2 when it was 11/1 on the nose.
    King Golan was 20/1 when it was 35/1 on the nose.

    Both running against strong favourites.

    Yeah that makes sense. The price today didn't collapse but when you say Laskadine was 9/2 w/o fav when it was 11/1 on the nose goes some way to proving my point. You would be taking 9/2 w/o fav when you could have got 16/1 the night before and backed it each way (so - getting 3 or 4/1 just for the place whether it finished first second or third to anything, not just the fav). It all depends on the extent that the price collapses but, yeah, not a bad idea to either do that or back the forecast with the fav. A couple of quid on the forecast today would have returned 67 or so

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  6. #6604
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    As ONEDUNME has just said, the price didnt collapse today. But it still ran as if today was the day and landed the place money. But also, the price of Cryogenics last week at Sedegfield didnt collapse either and that one went off at 50/1. And that one ran as if it was fancied and again landed the place money.
    So what is happening ? My guess is the obvious answer. Keep it hush just like they always do but instead of piling in and forcing the price down in the last half hour or so before the race, they back it at SP close to the off. Bookmakers will always take your SP bets. So instead of getting some money on at 25's and then having to take 20's, 14's, then 12's, 10's 8's etc etc , spread the bets out close to the off and the price shouldnt move. The later they leave it the better.

    Thoughts ?

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  8. #6605
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    As ONEDUNME has just said, the price didnt collapse today. But it still ran as if today was the day and landed the place money. But also, the price of Cryogenics last week at Sedegfield didnt collapse either and that one went off at 50/1. And that one ran as if it was fancied and again landed the place money.
    So what is happening ? My guess is the obvious answer. Keep it hush just like they always do but instead of piling in and forcing the price down in the last half hour or so before the race, they back it at SP close to the off. Bookmakers will always take your SP bets. So instead of getting some money on at 25's and then having to take 20's, 14's, then 12's, 10's 8's etc etc , spread the bets out close to the off and the price shouldnt move. The later they leave it the better.

    Thoughts ?

    Clever

  9. #6606
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    Genius. Noticed that price pattern a few times with these Johnson bets and was just about to ask you what the hell was going on.

    Kenny Tightlips, legend.

  10. #6607
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    I've done a race for Sunday and quite like the look of one but i am going to do the race again either tonight or first thing in the morning. But going thru the horse's form just pressed home a point i am always making on here about studying. You all know the five pointers i work to and anything else isnt worth getting into. And one of those pointers is making sure the track suits. Not just whether it is a flat or undulating track or one for gallopers or a tight, nippy track. My main concern is whether it is a left handed circuit or right handed. I've had many people tell me they dont bother with that sort of thing but they are missing a massive piece from the form studying jigsaw. It is a most important factor and ignore it at your peril. and as i was going thru the form for this horse, it was there for all to see. These are its form figures going left handed -

    55P705572488787

    And now its form figures going right handed -

    657522151616232113341466

    The horse is no world beater but given its right conditions it is more than capable of winning. And when everything is right for the horse, just like any horse, it has more than a fighting chance. And everything looks good

    Roll on Sunday.

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  12. #6608
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    I've done a race for Sunday and quite like the look of one but i am going to do the race again either tonight or first thing in the morning. But going thru the horse's form just pressed home a point i am always making on here about studying. You all know the five pointers i work to and anything else isnt worth getting into. And one of those pointers is making sure the track suits. Not just whether it is a flat or undulating track or one for gallopers or a tight, nippy track. My main concern is whether it is a left handed circuit or right handed. I've had many people tell me they dont bother with that sort of thing but they are missing a massive piece from the form studying jigsaw. It is a most important factor and ignore it at your peril. and as i was going thru the form for this horse, it was there for all to see. These are its form figures going left handed -

    55P705572488787

    And now its form figures going right handed -

    657522151616232113341466

    The horse is no world beater but given its right conditions it is more than capable of winning. And when everything is right for the horse, just like any horse, it has more than a fighting chance. And everything looks good

    Roll on Sunday.



  13. #6609
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    Sunday Exeter 2.43

    One that i thought had a better chance than most in its race was Trans Express who runs in the Exeter 2.43. As i mentioned yesterday, this horse has a definite preference for going right handed as its form figures showed and even more than that, of its six lifetime wins, five have come at Exeter. Its wins have come off marks of between 106 and 119 which was the mark on its last win in March of last year. It races tomorrow off a mark of 107 and has to be be thereabouts. I know Lucy Gardner is not everybodys cup of tea and its fair to say that she makes John Wayne look stylish in the saddle. But she can get the job done when the money is down. It has to go well.

    Let me just say that i am not backing this one although Mrs Compulsive will be having a dabble. I have spotted a few entries for next week which look very appealing so i'll keep my powder dry until then. Good luck if you get involved.
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 21-11-2020 at 16:03.

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  15. #6610
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    Yeah that makes sense. The price today didn't collapse but when you say Laskadine was 9/2 w/o fav when it was 11/1 on the nose goes some way to proving my point. You would be taking 9/2 w/o fav when you could have got 16/1 the night before and backed it each way (so - getting 3 or 4/1 just for the place whether it finished first second or third to anything, not just the fav). It all depends on the extent that the price collapses but, yeah, not a bad idea to either do that or back the forecast with the fav. A couple of quid on the forecast today would have returned 67 or so
    I don't know why I used the phrase "on the nose" in that post, I'm a cabbage.

    I just meant back it each way at the big price the night before....when the w/o fav market doesn't exist. Obviously I wouldn't risk it finishing 3rd or 4th and getting nothing.

    Then have a bet on the w/o fav market the next day if the price is decent and its up against a hot favourite.

    I wouldn't do it tomorrow with Trans Express because the favourite is 9/2 and Hills and bet365 have different opinions on which one is the favourite right now...

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  17. #6611
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    Sunday Exeter 2.43

    One that i thought had a better chance than most in its race was Trans Express who runs in the Exeter 2.43. As i mentioned yesterday, this horse has a definite preference for going right handed as its form figures showed and even more than that, of its six lifetime wins, five have come at Exeter. Its wins have come off marks of between 106 and 119 which was the mark on its last win in March of last year. It races tomorrow off a mark of 107 and has to be be thereabouts. I know Lucy Gardner is not everybodys cup of tea and its fair to say that she makes John Wayne look stylish in the saddle. But she can get the job done when the money is down. It has to go well.

    Let me just say that i am not backing this one although Mrs Compulsive will be having a dabble. I have spotted a few entries for next week which look very appealing so i'll keep my powder dry until then. Good luck if you get involved.
    13/2 with bet365, 17/2 with Hills, interesting.

    That's a seriously tight field, I can see why you're not putting money down.

    I can also see why Rihanna is putting money down and I'll be joining her.

  18. #6612
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gamblor View Post
    13/2 with bet365, 17/2 with Hills, interesting.

    That's a seriously tight field, I can see why you're not putting money down.

    I can also see why Rihanna is putting money down and I'll be joining her.
    It is a tricky race mate and there is no need to get involved really. There will be more opportunities during this coming week with one we have been waiting for already jocked up.

  19. #6613
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gamblor View Post
    13/2 with bet365, 17/2 with Hills, interesting.

    That's a seriously tight field, I can see why you're not putting money down.

    I can also see why Rihanna is putting money down and I'll be joining her.
    Rihanna would never get out of bed to do anything if she was my other half.

  20. #6614
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gamblor View Post
    13/2 with bet365, 17/2 with Hills, interesting.
    4/1 favourite with Hills now after Mrs C's bet.

    6/1 with betfred best price now.

    Might set up a betfred account just for this bet..30 euro in free bets when you stake 10 quid.
    Last edited by Gamblor; 21-11-2020 at 20:12.

  21. #6615
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    9/2 with betfred now after I go through the bother of registering

  22. #6616
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gamblor View Post
    9/2 with betfred now after I go through the bother of registering
    You have to be quick mate, you know they are always gonna drop in price

  23. #6617
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gamblor View Post
    4/1 favourite with Hills now after Mrs C's bet.

    6/1 with betfred best price now.

    Might set up a betfred account just for this bet..30 euro in free bets when you stake 10 quid.
    It opened up 14/1 with Hills on Friday afternoon. They cut it to 12's and then when the two non runners came thru they went 10's and then 9's.

    And now apparently Tom Seagulls has put it up. And Stan James are now 17/8 (just over 2/1 in old money )
    Ditch your bets quick !!!!!!
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 22-11-2020 at 10:15.

  24. #6618
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    Hills price races like that 2 days in advance?

  25. #6619
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gamblor View Post
    Hills price races like that 2 days in advance?
    Yes mate, every day. If you look on Oddschecker or on their site later, you will see the prices up for some of Tuesday's races.

    The early bird....................etc etc

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  27. #6620
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    Ten runners on Tuesday and Haslam has replaced McLernon with Alain Cawley. That has definitely put one of those feline characters amongst a member of the columbidae family.

    Not a good sign and i'm totally unsure now.

    I'm just hoping that he changes his mind and takes him out as he is also in a hurdle race at Donny on Friday.
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 22-11-2020 at 13:35.

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