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Thread: Rambling and Gambling

  1. #41
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    Holiday is back on, fly out tomorrow afternoon. Be lucky all.

  2. #42
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    qc is it a month long holiday that you go on?

  3. #43
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    Qc?where are you cmon QC Hope your OK

  4. #44
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    Hiya fridge, jombo,
    Sorry for late reply, things have been a bit hectic. The bookie who took my bets has had three of his accounts closed this year already and is now finding it impossible to carry on our dealings so i'm having to do my wheeling and dealing myself and it is very time consuming. It came to a head while i was away. I mentioned on this forum a bit back that i was watching Coolking and when it appeared in that hurdle race at Warwick a couple of weeks ago i though christmas had come early. I managed to get on at 25's but it took him ages to get the bets away and he ended up having to take it down to 12/1. And that was the end of that ! I just cant work these bookmakers out. They have got his business and he is winning year after year after year etc and they close him down ! It just doesnt make sense. They obviously havent got a clue what they are doing and they arent REAL traders. So i'm doing it myself and it is a bit of a pain at the moment until i can get something organised.
    Anyway, enough whinging, Cheltenham is upon us. I'm a bit miffed about Vautour not going for the Gold Cup. I was going to lay the bollocks out of it. Not to worry. As for today, i backed Native River for the 4 miler (it sounds better than the 3 mile seven furlong and one hundred and seventy yarder) a few weeks ago and that is it for now.

    Be lucky,

    QC

  5. #45
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    Oops, i forgot all about this thread. I think i'll start rambling and a bit of gambling might follow.
    I like the look of ORBYS MAN, at Bangor tomorrow night but it looks as though i'm not alone. I put it in at 7/1 but a couple of firms went bigger although they were quick to cut it. Not to worry, there will be other bets on other days.
    And i promise i'll try and keep it a "whinge free zone". Looking through earlier posts, i havent done very well in that department so far. I will try ! Mrs Crossett always says i'm very trying.

  6. #46
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    I'm going to try and revive this thread and start with a preview of a few of tomorrows races although i have to say that i am not having a bet. I came close but decided against it.
    At Newmarket in the first at 2-00 i quite like the look of Intimation and although its her first run of the season i have no doubt that Sir Michael will have her spot on. She was 2 from 2 last season and ended up winning at Leicester over 10f. This drop back shouldnt bother her and although she is up 10lb for that win she must go very well here.
    The next race is the Palace House which is nigh on impossible to suss. The easing of the ground will inconvenience a few, none more so than Jungle Cat who has been beaten 20L and 13L on the two occasions he has raced when "soft" has appeared in the going description. Its a race to watch rather than punt in but if i was forced to have a bet i'd take a chance on Steps. I know he has never won first time out but this softer ground will be in his favour and i dont think he will be far away.
    Air Force Blue is supposed to be a monster and will probably win but for those who dont bet odds on or prefer an each way bet or a forecast then dont look past Stormy Antarctic. He sluiced home in the "Craven" and has done very little wrong. It proved he has trained on and the more rain the better.
    The first race at Goodwood was intriguing. For those of you who like to compare flat and jumps ratings and work on the assumption that it is around 35/40lb difference, then the fact that Rayvin Black (rated 149 over hurdles) runs off his flat handicap mark of 70 should have you salivating. He was much improved last jumps season and although this is his first flat outing since 2012 at least he is going the right way round because he is far better right handed. I have to admit i was flummoxed when i tried to price it up and definitely erred on the side of caution by going 2/1. I really cant see him going off shorter but he may go a point or so bigger.
    At Uttoxeter nothing really stood out but in the 4-10, the bottom two, Flemensbay and Dusk Till Dawn looked interesting and i will watch them both closely. The previous race the 3-35 is a cracking 3m chase and a valuable one as well. Capard King and Al Co were my two against the field with slight preference for the latter.
    The race i was really interested in was the Thirsk Hunt Cup, the 3-55. I am quite sweet on a big price one here in Fort Bastion. This one won this race back in 2014 and was unlucky in this race last year. He fell out of the stalls losing about four or five lengths but was with them at the end of the back straight. But thats when the traffic problems started and if you get chance to watch the replay just have a look. He was denied in his run a few times yet was still only beaten five and threequarter lengths. He was unlucky !! He competed in all the top handicaps at the big meetings last year and they will probably on the agenda again this time round. With luck in running he will go well. I priced him at 10/1 but there was and still is some 16's around.

    If you're getting involved tomorrow the best of luck.
    Have a good night all,

    QC

  7. #47
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    I thought i had erred on the side of caution with Rayvin Black but its now down as low as 6/4 in places and top priced at 7/4. That seems very short to me. I couldnt have got involved when it was top priced 5/2 yesterday, so 6/4 doesnt interest me one bit. I hope it wins though.

  8. #48
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    I know its not the best race of the day, in all probability its the worst, but the last race at Salisbury got me intrigued. Its a lady amateur riders handicap but i found it easy to scrub some of them out and it left only a few that could win it. Call Out Loud and One Big Surprise were ones with an obvious chance but the one that caught my eye mostly was Victors Bet. He hasnt won since August 2014 when he won a couple of amateur events for this rider and he now finds himself 10lb lower than that last win. He stayed on really well on his reappearence at Kempton last time out after 7 months off and should come here fighting fit. My one concern is that he could really do with another furlong but it was seven furlongs at Kempton and he may get away with it. The bit that intrigued me most was the fact that this father/daughter combination have won this race for the last two years and this has obviously been the plan. She is a tidy little rider, just have a look at her ride when she won at Goodwood in 2014.
    Minding looks the one to beat in the 1000gns but after the way Air Force Blue ran today i wouldnt want to be backing it. In the first at Newmarket i thought Oasis Fantasy would go well and the good lady is already on.
    Over at Hamilton i thought there were a couple that would give Mirsaale a run for his money. That one has gone up 23lb for his two recent wins and this mark of 96 may just be too much now. Swaheen ran well on his comeback run at Thirsk last time out and should go well and the other one, which may not look that obvious, is Aramist. This one is two from two round here and won this race last year. He is a pound lower this time round and should come on for his seasonal debut last time out. The Alan Swinbank yard is going ok and he can go well at a nice price.

    If you're punting tomorrow, the best of luck.

    QC

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  10. #49
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    Happy 150th anniversary Dubai Dynamo. The poor old bugger has his 150th race tomorrow. Lets hope he comes back fit and well and is able to run many more. Thats as long as he is still enjoying it, he probably is. Sadly, he wont be coming back in first place, i'd be very surprised if that happened. This race will be run at a furious pace, there are a number of confirmed front runners in the race and as dear old Raleigh Gilbert used to say, they'll be going "lickety split". Last years winner Rousayan will be one of those up there and he will go well along with Abushamah. But my eye kept being drawn towards Border Bandit whose last appearence was last September in a Redcar seller. He was second in this race last year to Rousayan and now finds himself 5lb better off for the head beating. This good ground is just what he wants and if you look at his form figures for this trip here they read 11238. The last of those was on soft ground which is totally against him so if you take that one run out of the equation you can see that he is not without a chance. I wont be bothering myself but i will be watching closely.
    Over at Bath i was quite keen on Havisham in the 2-30 race. There are a lot of course specialists in this race who turn up year in, year out, but he will never get a better chance to notch his first win. This one ran its best ever race when fifth in the Queens Vase at the Royal meeting last year, form which none of this lot could match. He has yet to win but then again he hasnt had his ideal conditions since that race. He has either run on fast ground over too short a trip or he has ran at his ideal trip on unsuitable (soft) ground. He needs a trip and he needs it fast and when its fast at Bath its bloody well fast ! He HAS to go close.
    There is a cracking chase at Kempton which looks very open indeed and there are any number who could win it. Again its a no bet race for me but if i had to make a shortlist it would include Warden Hill, Fond Memory and Ericht. Possibly the first named.
    I'll be sticking around to watch the 5-00 and watch how Go West Young Man gets out of winning the race. I've got it down to running out or refusing at the moment but i cant decide which. One thing i do know is that he will not be first past the post. At least he wont have a jockey on if he is !
    Warwicks card has plenty of runners, and i know you have all heard it before, but i have more chance of a shag with Rihanna tonight than i have of finding a winner there. In the last i thought Tullow Tonic had a squeak but no more than that.
    As for Windsor, i cant stand the place. The sooner they bring jump racing back the better. Its a punters graveyard and i have more chance of a shag, oh hang on, i've done that one. Anyway, i wont be having a bet there tomorrow, or the following Monday, or the Monday after, etc etc etc.

    Good luck if you're getting involved. I know theres a decent looking card at the Curragh but i've had enough on my plate with the English stuff. I may get an hour in the morning but thats about all.

    Have a good night all,

    QC
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 01-05-2016 at 21:43.

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  12. #50
    Degenerate Member fridge's Avatar
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    I owe you a Glass or two of the very finest of whatever your having had a little double with victors bet and oasis fantasy thanking you mutchley����

  13. #51
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    That is very pleasing to hear fridge, well done sir. And to make it a double celebration, the good lady did as well. So when we see you she is picking up the tab. She was on last night at 8/1 and 6/1. And was i on ? Was i bollocks !!

  14. #52
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    What do you think of Garrahalish chances tomorrow in the 3.55 at Kempton, i think Jombo had it as a selection a while ago

  15. #53
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    Good morning typhoon, sorry i didnt get back to you last night. I logged off soon after my last post and then the wine came out................hic
    Jombo will be on later no doubt, he does like this horse. Its a well known fact that the horse is not the most fluent over his fences and that will always be a concern. The ground will suit but the trip is a bit of a worry as well. I noted there was some money around for him last night which is interesting but i couldnt get involved. There are a few tricky fences at Kempton, none more so than the final three on the run for home, and at a decent pace his jumping would be tested. Good luck if you've got involved and please dont let me put you off. Mrs Crossett is on Warden Hill by the way. (Well, not exactly ON it but she has backed it)

  16. #54
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    Early start today, thats the (only) good thing about 48hr decs on the flat.
    Just a quick post. For those of you who like a bigger than normal difference between jump and flat ratings (like Rayvin Blacks 79lb difference on Saturday) there is another at Catterick tomorrow night. Before i go any further i want to say that i have done the race once but i want to have another look at it again before i decide if its a bet or not, or if i want to get involved or not. The horse in question is Balmusette in the 7-55. This mare is a fairly decent hurdler who is rated 129 but gets in this race off 55, a difference of 74lb. This is her first handicap and at first glance i think she has got in very lightly. If you look at her four flat runs you would probably think that 55 is about right but in all those race she hasnt had her trip. What on earth Keith Reveley was doing racing her over a mile last time out is beyond me. She probably passed the post and thought she had to go round again. But tomorrow night is ideal and on a track where she has won a hurdle race (beating Briery Belle who won at Cheltenham last time out and is rated 136) she looks to have a great chance. I priced it up and was hovering around the 8/1 /10/1 mark and settled on 8's.
    If you are all sat there this bank holiday doing nothing, have a look at it and let me know what you think. I have to nip out now for a couple of hours but i'll look in again as soon as i return home.

    Happy punting,

    QC

  17. #55
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    I've gone through Balmusettes race again. I wouldnt want to be any bigger than 6's.

  18. #56
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    Ah well, thats that one down the swanee

  19. #57
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    Bloody hell. Go West Young Man.
    What the hell do i know !

  20. #58
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    Balmusette - right, thats that race finished.
    There is a decent looking chase at Exeter tomorrow night which will make for good viewing but sadly not a punting event. Two which had obvious chances were Vesperal Dream and Union Saint but i will be keeping an eye on Handy Andy who has been showing a glimmer of his old form over hurdles lately. Back over fences tomorrow and on his lowest chase mark since December 2012 he might start to show even more and possibly enough to make me think he can pick up a race over the summer.
    Fakenham have the first running of the "Norfolk National" and a wide open affair it is. Thomas Wild and Emerald Rose are not without chances but Grove Silver may prove best.
    At Sedgefield the 3-10 race was fairly interesting and Debt To Society would be my pick if i was getting involved. He does go well round here and was a decent third in a hurdle race here just over three weeks ago. He was well beaten in this race by Urban Gale in 2014 but Richard Ford only had two winners that season so i think its fair to say that he wasnt in prolific form. Compare that to the three winners he has had in the last fortnight and it does raise hopes a bit. Urban Gale and Notonebuttwo can follow him home.
    At Brighton.....................well they can do what they want. Cant stand the place and its not a track for serious punting.

    Have a good night all, and the best of luck against the old enemy tomorrow.

    QC

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  22. #59
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    What you think of summerlea in the same race ?qc

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    Morning fridge. Summerlea has a chance. When i first did the race i thought there were five with a realistic chance of winning it. As i said on here yesterday morning, i was going to do it again and then i got it down to four. After Havishams race (what were those pair of dozy twats doing on the track ?) i did it for a third time and got it down to three and Summerlea is one of them. Obviously Balmusette was another along with Silver Shuffle. If you look at Summerleas form figures round Catterick, (including over hurdles), they read 2322213, so its fair to say that he does like the place. And Catterick doesnt suit every horse, far from it. He ran a good race on his comeback at Redcar last time out and is not out of it. If you're looking for reasons to go against him i suppose the current run of form of Micky Hammond could be one thing. He has had a fantastic season, definitely his best, but he hasnt had a winner since April 20th and his last 15 runners have been beaten. But dont let that put you off if you are backing him my friend.
    As for Balmusette, i was going to say that he is far too short now but then again i said that about Rayvin Black on Saturday and look what happened. This game can make you look stupid sometimes. Punters are just locking on to horses with this sort of profile and piling in at any price. But good luck to them all, i hope it wins. That said, it wouldnt be the biggest surprise in the world if it was withdrawn.

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