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Thread: Rambling and Gambling

  1. #5301
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    You can still back it at 1.14 to go ahead- what a shambles yer government is! Surely they should have giving the go ahead by now!
    Yep, complete farce.

  2. #5302
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    Yep, complete farce.

    Confirmed

  3. #5303
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    Can't get my head around these 12 runner compressed handicaps, so the highest rated in a class 4 from what I can see is 78, so the remaining eleven horses rated down to 75 get in, that's a lot of horses between 70 and 75 who won't see a racetrack for a long time

  4. #5304
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    Quote Originally Posted by typhoon View Post
    Can't get my head around these 12 runner compressed handicaps, so the highest rated in a class 4 from what I can see is 78, so the remaining eleven horses rated down to 75 get in, that's a lot of horses between 70 and 75 who won't see a racetrack for a long time
    Thats what i was banging on about a few times recently. And i'm pleased to see that something else that i was ranting on about, namely low grade races for the "speedily challenged" () horses, has been looked into and there are a few meetings coming up starting next week for the horses rated in the 40's and 50's.

    The races you are on about are going to be tough so have you not thought about a different approach for a while until things calm down a bit ?
    Do as i do and just concentrate on a couple of races a day, go thru them thoroughly, and then price them up and wait until the guessers publish their guesses. You would be amazed at some of the prices you see. Sometimes they just make no sense at all. I'll give you an example for tomorrow.
    In the Newcastle 5.05 race, the favourite, Nataleena, is currently around the 5/2 mark. Back in October it finished third to Doctor Glass and was just over a length and a half in front of Flash Point. Nataleena and Flash Point raced off level weights that day. Tomorrow, Flash Point is getting 5lb from Nataleena so its fair to say that Flash Point has every chance of turning things around. Fair enough he has been off since November but he didnt run too badly first time out last season and its possible that he still has some improvement in him given that he has only had seven previous starts. But its the prices that are the topic here and they just dont make sense. Going on the run i have just mentioned, its possible that there may be very little between them tomorrow at the revised weights. But Nataleena has been put in at 5/2 and Flash Point at 20/1 !! There were a few firms up on the race yesterday morning and they were all 25's but those prices seem to have disappeared. The difference in price between them just doesnt make sense.
    There were a couple similar today. And yesterday. And on Monday

    Try it mate, you wont be sorry !

  5. #5305
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    Thats what i was banging on about a few times recently. And i'm pleased to see that something else that i was ranting on about, namely low grade races for the "speedily challenged" () horses, has been looked into and there are a few meetings coming up starting next week for the horses rated in the 40's and 50's.

    The races you are on about are going to be tough so have you not thought about a different approach for a while until things calm down a bit ?
    Do as i do and just concentrate on a couple of races a day, go thru them thoroughly, and then price them up and wait until the guessers publish their guesses. You would be amazed at some of the prices you see. Sometimes they just make no sense at all. I'll give you an example for tomorrow.
    In the Newcastle 5.05 race, the favourite, Nataleena, is currently around the 5/2 mark. Back in October it finished third to Doctor Glass and was just over a length and a half in front of Flash Point. Nataleena and Flash Point raced off level weights that day. Tomorrow, Flash Point is getting 5lb from Nataleena so its fair to say that Flash Point has every chance of turning things around. Fair enough he has been off since November but he didnt run too badly first time out last season and its possible that he still has some improvement in him given that he has only had seven previous starts. But its the prices that are the topic here and they just dont make sense. Going on the run i have just mentioned, its possible that there may be very little between them tomorrow at the revised weights. But Nataleena has been put in at 5/2 and Flash Point at 20/1 !! There were a few firms up on the race yesterday morning and they were all 25's but those prices seem to have disappeared. The difference in price between them just doesnt make sense.
    There were a couple similar today. And yesterday. And on Monday

    Try it mate, you wont be sorry !
    540

  6. #5306
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    Spent a fair bit of time looking at the 3.55 and I've sided with Dream Shot at 10/1, was consistent last year at least that's what sportinglife say.

  7. #5307
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    540
    Yes

  8. #5308
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    Quote Originally Posted by typhoon View Post
    Spent a fair bit of time looking at the 3.55 and I've sided with Dream Shot at 10/1, was consistent last year at least that's what sportinglife say.
    I didnt look at that race mate, only the last two at Geordieland.
    And i wouldnt take any notice of any of the comments alongside each horse in the Life, the RP or any publication. I find that they rarely tally with what i see and i'm sure that Stevie Wonder and David Blunkett work as race readers for the Life and the RP.
    Always remember the two golden rules when studying form and looking for winners.

    1 - Only believe what you have seen with your own eyes !

    2 - If in doubt, refer to rule 1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


  9. #5309
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    As I’ve said before, I like to look at young horses where the handicapper is basically guessing as they have little idea of a horses potential and are giving them ratings based on very little evidence at a time in their lives when their most likely to be improving month on month. Even better early in the season when they are running with their first handicap mark and better still when they have proven that they can go well fresh. All that applies to Fraternity in the 1 o’clock race.

    We all have our methodology and I admit to not assessing the competition in depth (not that that would be possible in a race like this) but I’m happy to take the 8/1 with William Hill and watch this horse to see if the handicapper may have underrated it

  10. #5310
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    Quote Originally Posted by typhoon View Post
    Spent a fair bit of time looking at the 3.55 and I've sided with Dream Shot at 10/1, was consistent last year at least that's what sportinglife say.
    The feature race of the day comes at Newcastle, though, and it could also have some bearing on Royal Ascot.
    The Group 3 Betway Pavilion Stakes (3.55) at Newcastle is considered a trial for the Commonwealth Cup, and while it doesn't feature any of the market leaders for that, things could change.
    Indeed, the Pavilion favourite Malotru hasn't even been given an ante-post quote, probably because he seemed to have his limitations exposed last term when fourth in the Gimcrack and fifth in the Mill Reef.
    However, he has already shown he has trained on well with a commanding Listed success at Lingfield in February, a run which took his all-weather record (both Polytrack) to 11.
    That was at 7f, however, and he was very strong at the end, so whether dropping back to 6f is going to be in his favour remains to be seen.
    He has replaced early favourite A'Ali in the market, with Simon & Ed Crisford's Norfolk winner being a bit weak, probably on the grounds that he is not so far clear of his rivals under a 4lb penalty and that he does need to conclusively prove himself at further than 5f.
    Ventura Rebel was only a neck down on him at Ascot last June when finishing strongly and again shaped as though an extra furlong is what he needed when fourth in the Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury.
    However, that was his last run of the campaign, so there must have been issues for him to have been off the track for so long, and at the prices I prefer the claims of Dream Shot, who was only a length down on A'Ali in the Flying Childers at Doncaster last term when doing his best work at the finish.
    He also ran on into second in a 5f Group 3 at Dundalk on his next start before being slightly below form at the Breeders' Cup. He shapes very much as though he is going to appreciate another furlong.
    Plenty of firms are offering four places and he looks perfectly reasonable value at double-figure odds.
    Back at Newmarket we have to wait until the seventh race to see any horses with form in the book, and I'm quite interested in a trainer-hopping, trip-dropping four-year-old in the Play 4 To Win At Betway Handicap (4.45).

    Paul Kealy
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

  11. #5311
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    Quote Originally Posted by the dope View Post
    The feature race of the day comes at Newcastle, though, and it could also have some bearing on Royal Ascot.
    The Group 3 Betway Pavilion Stakes (3.55) at Newcastle is considered a trial for the Commonwealth Cup, and while it doesn't feature any of the market leaders for that, things could change.
    Indeed, the Pavilion favourite Malotru hasn't even been given an ante-post quote, probably because he seemed to have his limitations exposed last term when fourth in the Gimcrack and fifth in the Mill Reef.
    However, he has already shown he has trained on well with a commanding Listed success at Lingfield in February, a run which took his all-weather record (both Polytrack) to 11.
    That was at 7f, however, and he was very strong at the end, so whether dropping back to 6f is going to be in his favour remains to be seen.
    He has replaced early favourite A'Ali in the market, with Simon & Ed Crisford's Norfolk winner being a bit weak, probably on the grounds that he is not so far clear of his rivals under a 4lb penalty and that he does need to conclusively prove himself at further than 5f.
    Ventura Rebel was only a neck down on him at Ascot last June when finishing strongly and again shaped as though an extra furlong is what he needed when fourth in the Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury.
    However, that was his last run of the campaign, so there must have been issues for him to have been off the track for so long, and at the prices I prefer the claims of Dream Shot, who was only a length down on A'Ali in the Flying Childers at Doncaster last term when doing his best work at the finish.
    He also ran on into second in a 5f Group 3 at Dundalk on his next start before being slightly below form at the Breeders' Cup. He shapes very much as though he is going to appreciate another furlong.
    Plenty of firms are offering four places and he looks perfectly reasonable value at double-figure odds.
    Back at Newmarket we have to wait until the seventh race to see any horses with form in the book, and I'm quite interested in a trainer-hopping, trip-dropping four-year-old in the Play 4 To Win At Betway Handicap (4.45).

    Paul Kealy
    To be brutally honest, i would much prefer to listen to ONEDUNME and Typhoon than Paul Kealy. At the end of the day he is just a bloke who likes horse racing, likes a bet and works for a racing paper.
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 04-06-2020 at 11:12.

  12. #5312
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    As I’ve said before, I like to look at young horses where the handicapper is basically guessing as they have little idea of a horses potential and are giving them ratings based on very little evidence at a time in their lives when their most likely to be improving month on month. Even better early in the season when they are running with their first handicap mark and better still when they have proven that they can go well fresh. All that applies to Fraternity in the 1 o’clock race.

    We all have our methodology and I admit to not assessing the competition in depth (not that that would be possible in a race like this) but I’m happy to take the 8/1 with William Hill and watch this horse to see if the handicapper may have underrated it
    Exactly mate and each to their own. Whatever way suits you all best then thats the way to go. At the end of the day, it is your money and you can do with it as you please. I will regularly give you my thoughts and opinions but they are mine and you must do what suits you.

  13. #5313
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    Quote Originally Posted by typhoon View Post
    Can't get my head around these 12 runner compressed handicaps, so the highest rated in a class 4 from what I can see is 78, so the remaining eleven horses rated down to 75 get in, that's a lot of horses between 70 and 75 who won't see a racetrack for a long time
    It wont get any easier for a while mate. I've just finished doing the Lingfield 3.50 race and the top ten horses are rated 77 and 78.

    (And there is one in the race which is well overpriced)

  14. #5314
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    I've got plenty on my list to back tomorrow but not at a decent price so I won't even bother mentioning them. The only one that may be of interest is Badayel in the 500 Lingfield. 4 Year old that was in the first two in its first five runs before what, on the face of it was a disappointing run at Kempton in March but it did go the longest way around and still showed plenty of fight in defeat so I'm willing to let that go.

    Change of trainer which can sometimes have a positive effect (one of those things that commentators only mention when they win ) dropped 2lb for that run in March and has the excellent Hollie Doyle on board.

    As if that wasn't enough to tempt me in, Ladbrokes are offering four places and they have it up at 10/1 so I'll be taking some of that.

  15. #5315
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    Oh go on then, I'll mention English King in the 315 at Lingfield. The one I'm most looking forward to watching tomorow. 5/2 at the moment.

  16. #5316
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    I've got plenty on my list to back tomorrow but not at a decent price so I won't even bother mentioning them. The only one that may be of interest is Badayel in the 500 Lingfield. 4 Year old that was in the first two in its first five runs before what, on the face of it was a disappointing run at Kempton in March but it did go the longest way around and still showed plenty of fight in defeat so I'm willing to let that go.

    Change of trainer which can sometimes have a positive effect (one of those things that commentators only mention when they win ) dropped 2lb for that run in March and has the excellent Hollie Doyle on board.

    As if that wasn't enough to tempt me in, Ladbrokes are offering four places and they have it up at 10/1 so I'll be taking some of that.
    Good luck with those mate.
    But, at this moment in time, i have no intention of putting one up to back until things have calmed/settled down. I'll just do as i always do and play with the prices. That one yesterday, Flash Point, went off at 8's which is exactly what i put it in at. And it finished almost level with Nataleena and so confirming the form. It was only the price that was wrong initially......................thankfully

    Mrs Crossett hasnt even had a bet this week so far but that will change tomorrow. There is one running at Lingfield that, under normal circumstances, i might have been tempted to get involved with. But i know the guessers will put it in too big and so i will get involved my normal way. I've told her to have a tenner each way which is a decent bet for her. Lets hope i am not in the doghouse on Sunday

    I was doodling last night and looking at the results so far this week and it just confirms what i say about holding back on your bets. Of the 69 races run so far, only 15 clear favourites have won along with one joint fav. That is obviously well below the "norm". In fact, there are more winners, 16, with prices of 10/1 and bigger than there are clear favs.
    Good luck if you are getting involved today.
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 05-06-2020 at 06:45.

  17. #5317
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    Unfortunately, I lack your discipline QC. That and the dreaded "I" word that proper gamblers hate, interest. I love to make a profit but I also love to have the interest every day as well.

    I haven't put up my horses as recommendations to back, more like I'm just airing my thoughts on them. The truth is that, at the start of a new season, I will back almost every horse that's been in my tracker for the last three years that runs because (and here we differ again) it would really piss me off if they had "trained on" and popped up at 25/1 (exactly as Jack's Point did at Newmarket yesterday - luckily, I was on it).

    Once they've had a poor run with no obvious excuses, i can put them to one side but, truth be told, I usually have a little dabble throughout the season at tiny stakes if they're big prices and have made me a profit in the past (I have profit and loss figures for every horse in my tracker and that is part of the fun of it and part of my "hobby" or obsession


    i think we all knew there were going to be plenty of upsets this week but my view is that I'd rather carry on and have a punt and hope that I'm on the right side of the upset. Like your old man, in my own way I've been doing things this way for too long now to change my ways and I love it despite being well down on the week (even with the 25/1 winner).

  18. #5318
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    Unfortunately, I lack your discipline QC. That and the dreaded "I" word that proper gamblers hate, interest. I love to make a profit but I also love to have the interest every day as well.

    I haven't put up my horses as recommendations to back, more like I'm just airing my thoughts on them. The truth is that, at the start of a new season, I will back almost every horse that's been in my tracker for the last three years that runs because (and here we differ again) it would really piss me off if they had "trained on" and popped up at 25/1 (exactly as Jack's Point did at Newmarket yesterday - luckily, I was on it).

    Once they've had a poor run with no obvious excuses, i can put them to one side but, truth be told, I usually have a little dabble throughout the season at tiny stakes if they're big prices and have made me a profit in the past (I have profit and loss figures for every horse in my tracker and that is part of the fun of it and part of my "hobby" or obsession


    i think we all knew there were going to be plenty of upsets this week but my view is that I'd rather carry on and have a punt and hope that I'm on the right side of the upset. Like your old man, in my own way I've been doing things this way for too long now to change my ways and I love it despite being well down on the week (even with the 25/1 winner).
    A good read mate although sorry to see you are down.........................even with a 25/1 winner !!

    You obviously class "interest" as having a bet. It doesnt have to be that way. I have an "interest" in every race, every day, without money changing hands. Theres nothing better than watching the horses in midfield and behind and see whats going on. Thats where you spot the ones for the future whether its just an unlucky run, a mistimed run or something far more blatant.

    We do differ with the tracker and you will remember a few occasions on here when i've said that i've missed one. (It does happen fairly regularly but it still pays). But then again you will remember the ones that i've said that i've timed just right. A lot of people make the mistake of putting horses in their trackers for whatever reason and then backing them on their next run and the one after and the one after etc etc. That doesnt really make sense to me. Lets give an extreme example. If i spotted a horse that i thought was unlucky at Musselburgh on good to firm ground over two miles, i wouldnt dream of backing him next time out if he was running at Pontefract on soft ground over that trip UNLESS he had shown that he could act round there and on that going. Its a case of going thru the form and seeing if conditions suit. And as i've said before, sometimes i time them right, and sometimes they just take the piss out of me !

    I was slightly surprised that Mrs Crossett wasnt looking for a bet earlier in the week but i was trying my best to put her off and, like everyone else, she has gone this long without one so another few days wont make much difference.

    If truth be known, i'm probably waiting for the jumps to start. Another few weeks and then we will be up and running.
    Then the punts might start.

    Have a good day all.

  19. #5319
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    "You obviously class "interest" as having a bet. It doesnt have to be that way"


    Yes that very thought occurred to me as I was typing my post. Your interest is not the same as my interest and I understand that we both enjoy watching the races in very different ways.


    I always hate to disagree with people who's knowledge I respect so highly
    but I'm afraid I'm going to have to do just that.


    " A lot of people make the mistake of putting horses in their trackers for whatever reason and then backing them on their next run and the one after and the one after etc etc. That doesnt really make sense to me. Lets give an extreme example. If i spotted a horse that i thought was unlucky at Musselburgh on good to firm ground over two miles, i wouldnt dream of backing him next time out if he was running at Pontefract on soft ground over that trip UNLESS he had shown that he could act round there and on that going. Its a case of going thru the form and seeing if conditions suit.


    I'm guilty of doing just that and there are two very good reasons (in my view) for doing so. The second of them is going to make you spit your coffee out, so please make sure any cake has been moved to a safe splash-free distance.


    The first reason is that my main bets (by which I mean the ones that I have my normal sized bets on and more when warranted) are, 80% of the time, very young horses (as I have said over and over again to the point of boring people rigid) and for that very reason, there will very often not be enough evidence for me to make a decision on what ground will be ideal for them. With some, it becomes obvious early on but if a horse has had three runs and ran well in two class 5s on good ground and poorly in the middle of the three in a class 3 on soft ground then I can't be sure if it's the ground or the competition that's responsible (or even if it has been an off day).

    For that reason I ignore the ground. I've heard people waffling on about pedigrees and what ground a horse's dam and sire preferred and so it should like this and that and I've watched with my own eyes (as you always suggest we should) as it's gone and hosed up on ground that it should have hated in theory. In fact we've all seen horses win on ground that they "hate" and the price usually reflects what people's opinions are on that.


    Now hold on to your seat for this bit....... Going can be overrated. Yes that's what I said. I know you know exactly what ground a ten year old handicapper will want to be at it's best but, as I said, I'm dealing with the other end of the age scale and the fact is that most horses (not all) can handle a bigger range of going than they are given credit for. If I have a four year old in my tracker that's had 8 races and had three wins on firm, I don't stop myself from backing it the next time out on soft ground on the basis that it may have ran one race on soft ground and not done so well. And I wouldn't even stop myself from backing it on heavy ground just because the sparse evidence says it likes a hard surface - that doesn't mean it can't run well on heavy. If it then goes out and finishes last, obviously hating the ground then, yeah, I will take that into account BUT.....and here is my biggest bugbear on the going......


    A lot of the time, the official going is bollox. Even allowing for falling rain or ever drying conditions which can change going from one hour to the next (bearing in mind I'm placing some bets the night before if I think the price is right) there aren't half a dozen or so types of ground and the variations on the ground that I see officially described as "soft" are so massively different types of ground in reality as to make the description meaningless.

    Plus, you can have a "soft" where the top of the ground is soft and you can have a "soft" that's more sticky, on the verge of soft to heavy but they will both get the same official description. If a horse runs on the second type and doesn't like it, there's no saying it won't go on the first type and hose in, despite having comments that it "hated the soft ground" the time before.

    Anyway, sorry for the long post. I just started a reply and couldn't stop





  20. #5320
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    Great reply mate and we agree on a lot of things.

    As for the going, that is one of the most important factors when studying. But !!, i hear what you are saying about it and the way i treat it is as a "generalisation". What i mean by that is that if the Clerk of the course says it is Good then i work on "Goodish". If he says it is Soft, i work on Softish. I agree with your example about the soft ground, top of the ground example but there are also many other possible variations. This is where i raise one of my points of ignoring sectionals. If the Clerk says it is good to soft, does anybody really think that every single yard of that track is "good to soft"?! Take somewhere like Sandown. At the top of the hill just passing the stands it could be on the good side. It could be soft at the bottom of the hill. It could be good to soft down the back straight and then softer as they straighten up for home at the bottom of the hill. What i am saying is that undulating tracks, possible indifferent drainage on certain parts of tracks, inconsistent watering, shaded areas, etc etc. There are many possible reasons why the track doesnt ride the same all the way round and never will.
    And bear in mind that it is only his opinion on what the ground is like. When i used to have the sound on, and they probably still do it now, how many times did they ask a jockey returning from a ride how the ground was. And they would differ. One would say goodish, another would say on the soft side, another might say dead ground. Its just guessing again. And the conditions that apply one day will never be repeated on another day so therefore its a combination of guesswork and, as i keep ramping on about, applying the basics.

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