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Thread: Rambling and Gambling

  1. #4461
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    I would have backed On The Road but a pity Exeter is abandoned.

    What is the issue with Charlie Mann?

    Also if you do 3 or 4 races every day - it is a shame that all that work doesn't get past your notes if you are not having a bet - I mean it would be great to get a 'QC Quote' type summary just for info - not even as much as you did for 2.30 Exeter above - but giving your one or two against the field - I would be willing to buy you a few cakes if you have a donate button. Cheers.
    As for putting notes on here, its all down to time with me. Some afternoon/evenings i have time on my hands and others i dont. It all depends on what prices the guessers have put out. For example, on Friday night they put Sammy Bill in at 6/4. I was 5/2 and my mate who i ring to compare now and again was 9/4. So Friday night was spent laying all i could and there was plenty to lay at 13/8 up to 2/1. I stopped then and waited until it got around the 9/4 mark and started backing it back. But that took up most of the evening and it was a late one. But it locked in a three figure win whether it won the race or not.
    Similarly with Knockoura on Saturday night. And then Sunday night was embarrassing for the guessers. They put Flight To Milan in at 6/4 !!!!!!! How anybody could think that Flight To Milan was a 6/4 chance is beyond me. Whoever thought it, definitely shouldnt be in the game. I was 9/2 and when i rang my mucker again, he was exactly the same price. And bear in mind that there are plenty of people out there who do exactly the same as us and compile their own odds and they obviously thought around the same. And as i've said in the past many times over, there are some very good odds compilers out there. Its just that none of them work for bookmakers. It shows how far out they were because it was impossible to lay the horse at under 2/1. And there wasnt a great deal matched between 2/1 and 3/1. I know this for certain because i was sat with this laptop on my knees trying it. I think i got about 17 matched in that range because there were plenty of people out there falling over themselves to lay it. I managed to get a fair amount matched between 3/1 and 7/2 before i called it a day. I laid it back between 9/2 and 5/1 but if i had hung on it did go far bigger on Betfair.

    The horse went off 11/2 !

    But going back to the notes, i'll see what todays decs bring although more to the point, what prices are plucked from thin air.

  2. #4462
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    Granted the horse has done very little since last Feb, but the 8/1 on offer for Wishmoor in the Plumpton 2.40 tomorrow seems very big. That run in February was a cracking second in the valuable Grand National trial at Punchestown behind Dounikos. The horse will be having its first run for the stable, his first run since August but runs here off a 12lb lower mark than that day.
    The opposition dont amount to a great deal with a couple of them out of form, Antony is not certain to stay, a fifteen year old etc.

    Thoughts anyone ?

  3. #4463
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    Granted the horse has done very little since last Feb, but the 8/1 on offer for Wishmoor in the Plumpton 2.40 tomorrow seems very big. That run in February was a cracking second in the valuable Grand National trial at Punchestown behind Dounikos. The horse will be having its first run for the stable, his first run since August but runs here off a 12lb lower mark than that day.
    The opposition dont amount to a great deal with a couple of them out of form, Antony is not certain to stay, a fifteen year old etc.

    Thoughts anyone ?
    that trainer levins isn’t bad either only thing is that he runs them like sir Mickey!

  4. #4464
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    Is Mrs Crumpett backing this one?

  5. #4465
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    Is Mrs Crumpett backing this one?
    I dont think so. I know she has backed Scotchtown at Newbury and she's also backed Hymn And A Prayer at Plumpton but i dont think she's backing Wishmoor.

  6. #4466
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    Cheers - Always like to know what Mrs Crumpett is on

  7. #4467
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    Cheers - Always like to know what Mrs Crumpett is on
    She said tell Clanky to mind his own business.

  8. #4468
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    I'm over the moon that Thick Rust is leaving the BHA but i just wonder who will take his place. All the rest of his colleagues in the Mickey Mouse Clubhouse are as dense and clueless as him and i fear the worst. Racing will not progress as long as the BHA are still around.
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 14-01-2020 at 22:03.

  9. #4469
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    Granted the horse has done very little since last Feb, but the 8/1 on offer for Wishmoor in the Plumpton 2.40 tomorrow seems very big. That run in February was a cracking second in the valuable Grand National trial at Punchestown behind Dounikos. The horse will be having its first run for the stable, his first run since August but runs here off a 12lb lower mark than that day.
    The opposition dont amount to a great deal with a couple of them out of form, Antony is not certain to stay, a fifteen year old etc.

    Thoughts anyone ?
    And yet another wasted effort, Plumpton abandoned.

    See you all in the summer.

  10. #4470
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    I was going to ask you how you coped with that after you posted the other day about the amount of time it took to back and lay the other day. I think that answers my question lol

  11. #4471
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    I was going to ask you how you coped with that after you posted the other day about the amount of time it took to back and lay the other day. I think that answers my question lol
    Its a f***ing pain in the arse mate.
    Todays abandonment isnt too bad because there was very little at stake. But bear in mind that there have been occasions when a decent sum has been made, regardless of the result, and the race hasnt been run for whatever reason or the horse is a non runner. There was a case in early December when i'd locked in a three figure win no matter what won and the meeting was in full swing (Exeter) and then just before my race, the stewards inspected the track and abandoned the rest of the card.
    This was just a couple of days after locking in a similar sum and then just before the race the horse was pulled out.
    Obviously i dont lose anything but those two were very annoying.

    But its just part of the game and not the end of the world.

    The decs are in soon and it starts all over again.

  12. #4472
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    And just to follow up the "its all part of the game" and it being a f***ing pain in the arse", it can also be very annoying when you just seem to be one second behind everyone else when chasing a price. I had Perpignan (Christian Williams horse, 3.20 MR) down as a possible improver and definite mover but ended up with the price of a cup of coffee on it. From opening at 12/1 last night, 11's most places, it is now a general 5/1 chance although 4's and 9/2 in a few places.
    The horse has won three points in Ireland, two last year, and since joining Williams has dropped from a mark of 106 down to its current mark of 83 ! That is 23lb since August !!! And with Jack Tudor taking 7lb off, the horse will feel as though it is running loose.

    As i've said many times in the past, some days i time them right and other days they just laugh at me.
    That said, he has a very live opponent in Cusheen Bridge. This one looks nailed for the frame and wont be far away.
    Someone sitting not too far from me has backed them both and done a rev fcst.

  13. #4473
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    And in the couple of minutes it took to type the previous piece, it has now gone 4's nearly everywhere.

    And i got the miserable sum of 3 at 12's.

    Brave bookmakers are still alive and kicking.

  14. #4474
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    Johnny Levins has entered Wishmoor, the horse that was down to run at Plumptons abandoned meeting the other day, in another veterans race at Catterick next Wednesday. The horse was already entered up at Ayr on Sunday.

  15. #4475
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    There's a cracking hunter chase at Warwick next Wedneday as well. The current champ, Hazel Hill, is entered along with the horse AP said was a future champ, Minella Rocco, and also Kashmir Peak who was rated 139 at best over hurdles and ran (although well beaten) in the Triumph Hurdle won by the ill fated Our Conor.

  16. #4476
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    Serious horse there Panic Attack

  17. #4477
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    Serious horse there Panic Attack
    Would want to be good - They forked out six grand for it.

  18. #4478
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    QC could you have a look at that Panic Attack race and see if there was any depth in it in your opinion.

    I liked the look of her and 12/1 for Chelt is tempting me. Thanks.

    Or anybody else opinion appreciated.
    Last edited by clancy; 17-01-2020 at 12:28.

  19. #4479
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    QC could you have a look at that Panic Attack race and see if there was any depth in it in your opinion.

    I liked the look of her and 12/1 for Chelt is tempting me. Thanks.

    Or anybody else opinion appreciated.
    Sorry mate, been busy. And its going to be hectic this afternoon. All good fun though.

    As you know, bumpers are not my thing and i never get involved with them. But the horse did look visually impressive and will certainly come on a ton for the run. And as the saying goes, she can only beat what is put up in front of her. But although some of the ones behind her had managed to win a race or two, the second, third, fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth were all well beaten on their previous outings. You also have to bear in mind that she was getting 11lb from every other mare in the race except one.

    Over to you

  20. #4480
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    Hmmm
    Thanks - 12/1 probably based on Trainer as much a horse.

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