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Thread: Rambling and Gambling

  1. #21
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    Friday Feb 12th

    Theres a good jumps card at Kempton tomorrow and a decent crowd should be there to see it. For those who havent been there for an all weather meeting, here is a tip for you. Always take a friend or two. Otherwise, you end up being the only one there and spend the afternoon talking to yourself. I've been there for a couple of Monday afternoon flat meetings and i reckon the staff outnumber the paying public. The majority of people who do go seem to congregate in the bar/betting hall under the stand so for those watching on TV it looks empty. You are not far wrong. Still, i can boast a record of never having backed a loser at one of those meetings. Correct, i didnt have a bet at either.
    I narrowed the first race down to four and although my eye keeps getting drawn to Brown Bear i think a small each way bet on Gaelic Myth might pay dividends. Flashman and Sky Lino were the other two but Gaelic Myth ran some very respectable races in late 2014 and was off the track until last month when reappearing here in the race won by Debdebdeb. True, he was beaten quite a way but he should come on a bundle for that run and has since been dropped 5lb. There are races to be won with him and hopefully tomorrows is one of them. In the 2-05 Trojan Star has a 15lb pull with Exmoor Mist on their run at Leicester and that might be enough to turn the tables. The latter has won again since and there shouldnt be a great deal between them. In the 2-40 i found it hard to look past Zanstra and Bishops Court and they might well finish in that order. The best race of the day is the 3m chase at 3-50 but finding the winner is tricky. If i had to have a bet it would be Tinker Time but its a race to watch rather than get involved in. Again, if i was forced to risk some money i think i would lay the fav Silvergrove. This ones jumping isnt great at times and as we all know these fences do take some jumping, especially the last three.
    Over at Wetherby i did laugh when i saw that Astigos had been declared. No doubt he'll lay awake all night working out how he can get out of winning the 2-25. He has more than enough ability to take this easily but thats not what he wants to do. Or have i, and many others, got it wrong and this minimum trip has been what he wanted all this time ? Somehow i doubt it but we'll know tomorrow around 2-30. The 4-10 is the best race there tomorrow and i narrowed it down to three with preference for Goodtoknow. Three times he has raced there and his form figures read 223. But that only tells half the story. The first time he raced there he was beaten threequarters of a length. The next time he was beaten a head into second and on his last run there he was beaten a head and a nose into third. You could put it another way and say with just a little bit of luck he could easily be 3 from 3 there. He must go close yet again tomorrow with King of The Wolds and Epic Warrior the dangers. As i was going through the race i was edging towards King Of The Wolds but i couldnt get his last race out of my head. That was the day at Haydock in a long distance chase when he led for about the last two circuits and was still cruising turning into the straight before his legs turned to jelly and he faded back into fourth. Granted he has had nearly twelve weeks to get over it and that may well be long enough but there was just a bit of doubt in my mind and its Goodtoknow for me.

    Bets - bet365 as per the rules,

    5 E.W - Gaelic Myth @ 10/1
    5 E.W - Trojan Star @ 8/1
    5 E.W - Tinker Time @ 7/1
    10 Win - Goodtoknow @ 5/1

    Best of luck all if you're getting involved,

    QC
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 11-02-2016 at 18:24.

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  3. #22
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    Good old Astigos. Never in danger.
    Cant shake this cold off so i'm away for a week or so starting Monday. Hopefully some sunshine will do the trick.

  4. #23
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    another good day QC.

  5. #24
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    Excellent QC well done a kiplings for you sir

  6. #25
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    Not a good day actually. Thought we had booked a week away in Lanzarote only to get a call about 20 mins ago telling us that we couldnt have the hotel we had originally planned on but they could put us in another. We know the replacement one and dont like it so holiday is off for a few days/ weeks or so.

  7. #26
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    sorry to here that QC,time will fly and you will soon be up and away.....

  8. #27
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    Cheers rasputin, its ramble time

  9. #28
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    Saturday Feb 13th,

    Its the Schweppes/Tote Gold Trophy/Totesport hurdle day. Its also not my favourite race. I've lost count of the number of times i have backed the runner up. The worst was back in 2005 when i had backed Bongo Fury at 50/1 and he was in front jumping the last only to be collared by Essex and Barry Geraghty. I still hadnt got over Rooster Booster being nabbed right on the line by Geos the year before. And then Bothy in 2011. The list is endless. So if you want to know what finishes second this year, read on. I've been saying to myself for the past two days "Dont pick Blazer, Dont pick Blazer" !! But he has to go very well doesnt he ? I say yes. For a lively outsider you could do worse than have a second peep at Zarib. But it goes without saying that i wont be having a bet. In fact, i dont think i'll bother with this race ever again. On second thoughts, i will return to betting in it when they rename it the Schweppes. Because thats about the time i last backed the winner !
    The 1-50 race at Newbury looks a lively little race but, for me, Argocat looks chucked in. He races off a 22lb lower mark over hurdles compared to his chase mark and on his first run for Nicky Henderson he has to go well in conditions he will love. The Denman chase that follows is not up to its usual standard and it wouldnt be a surprise to see Houblon Des Obeaux take it. He was a decent second to Coneygree in this last year and conditions will be ideal.
    There are some disappointingly small fields in the early races at Warwick which spoils things a little. I thought Cogry would appreciate the drop back in trip from his Welsh National exertions last time out. As long as the five week break is long enough for him to recover he should go close on a track where he is 2 from 2. And in the last, Fatcatinthehat, Wells De Lune and Norse Light were the three that stood out but nowhere near enough to warrant a bet.

    Bets -

    15 E.W - Argocat @ 5/1
    10 Win - Houblon Des Obeaux @ 7/2
    10 Win - Cogry @ 7/2

    Best of luck if you're getting stuck in tomorrow. Especially in the Schweppes or whatever it is called. A consolation free pint for anyone who backs the second .

  10. 3 Thanks from:
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  11. #29
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    Enjoying the new/other/this thread qc I hope it's not affecting your cake eating habits too much,always interesting to here a different way of picking horses I have now gone back to my old method of pin and blindfold it's working as well as the other methods I've been using,personally I think with all this rain training must be a real mare their schedules must be all over the place so the form goes out the window and in comes the pin gl with your bets today

  12. #30
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    Morning fridge,
    I had an old mate who sadly died just a couple of weeks ago who ignored "form" and anything associated with it. He always used to say to me, "How do you know the horse you picked hasnt woken up with a bad headache today and just cant be pestered" ? "He could have toothache or a sore eye, blurred vision, whatever, you just dont know". "And what good is form then, could you do your best if your head was on the verge of exploding" ?
    He told me that over 30 years ago and i've never forgotten it.

    RIP Tony.

  13. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    Morning fridge,
    I had an old mate who sadly died just a couple of weeks ago who ignored "form" and anything associated with it. He always used to say to me, "How do you know the horse you picked hasnt woken up with a bad headache today and just cant be pestered" ? "He could have toothache or a sore eye, blurred vision, whatever, you just dont know". "And what good is form then, could you do your best if your head was on the verge of exploding" ?
    He told me that over 30 years ago and i've never forgotten it.

    RIP Tony.

    RIP.

    I often think that myself. It's no reason to abandon form but it is a reason to forgive a horse a disappointing run, even if there are no other reasons (ground, trip etc) to account for it.

  14. #32
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    Afternoon ONEDUNME,

    That may well be the case my friend. Do horses have headaches ? Who knows ? A touch of flu, an aching back. There could be any number of things. You know as well as i do that sometimes you look back on a horses run and say to yourself, "what on earth happened there" ? And none of us can perform to our best if we are feeling a bit "under the weather". He stuck by his theory every time he had a bet, used only the Daily Mirror and would have all his bets sorted within ten minutes. "You and your form bollocks" he used to say to me.

  15. #33
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    I suppose the question to ask is, did he make a profit? If so, then you can't argue with his thinking processes, whether they took ten minutes or ten hours

  16. #34
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    And thats it. The answer is no. But he was only a recreational punter who only lost what he could afford.

  17. #35
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    you must sort me out for my free pint!

  18. #36
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    Aw that was unlucky jombo. It possibly may have been coming off second best but then again, who knows. I'll send it in the post.

  19. #37
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    Sunday Feb 14th

    We need Exeter on. Hopefully it looks as though it will get the go ahead in the morning but if its off its going to be a very quiet day. Nothing caught my eye at Southwell but then again i'd have been more surprised if something had.
    And at Exeter. even if it goes ahead there are going to be quite a few non runners with several horses engaged there having raced either yesterday or today.
    The only two races i thought were interesting, from a betting point of view, were the 3-10 and the 3-40. There are a number of horses in both these races that have as much chance of staying the trip as i have of getting tapped up with Rihanna tonight.
    Firstly the Pertemps hurdle. Scoop The Pot looks well in off bottom weight and may well take this but nothing he has done so far will have prepared him for a slog like this. He will be hard to beat but in Goodbye Dancer and Salmanazar he has two opponents that will see it out until the end. Slight preference is for the former. I will also be keeping an eye on West Approach as the likely improver.
    In the veterans chase at 3-40, Shuil Royale probably wont run and i crossed out the bottom six runners for various reasons leaving only three. Midnight Prayer looks set to run a big race but he needs to cut out the little mistakes he makes every time he races. Under 11-12 in this ground every error will count against him and i'm leaving it between Golden Chieftain and Restless Harry. To be fair, both of them can hit a fence or two but hopefully their errors will be at a minimum tomorrow. Restless Harry has been beaten a fair way in his three starts since a year off the track but he should be spot on for this now and with his new stable of Henry Oliver going really well at the moment he cant be far away in conditions he will relish. Golden Chieftain has always been error prone but i have noticed his jumping has improved this season and he wont be far away. Cue him falling at the first .
    Hopefully conditions will improve this coming week, field sizes start to improve and we can get back to giving these bookie chappies a good kicking !!!

    Bet -

    10 E.W. - Restless Harry @ 6/1

    Have a good night tonight all and the best of luck tomorrow.

    QC

  20. #38
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    Unfortunately n/ r

  21. #39
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    Not to worry fridge, theres always tomorrow................... i hope.
    A very quiet afternoon is in store although the decs for tomorrow are in soon and i can start on them. Theres an inspection at Catterick in the morning but hopefully it will go ahead. The forecast looks bleak though.
    I think Golden Chieftain will win that chase now with Midnight Prayer following him home. The other four have various negatives to put me off them.
    Have a good day mate.

  22. #40
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    Monday Feb 15th

    Hopefully Catterick will pass its early morning inspection and go ahead. I know i said i wanted Exeter to be on but after seeing what went on i have to say i would rather it had been called off. That said, Cattericks conditions will be nowhere near as bad as Exeter so we will all be spared the sad site of seeing completely exhausted animals struggling up the straight. And of course Catterick is a much easier track to race around so things should be ok.
    I dont suppose many of you Irish lads and lasses have been to Catterick but to be totally honest, you are not missing a great deal. In a nutshell, it is basic ! The facilities, as far as i am concerned, are still in the 1970's and a total refurbishment is needed. If racecourses were shops, Cheltenham would be Harrods and Catterick would be Lidl.
    As for the racing, there are a few there with chances and one that i really like the look of. In the 3-40, So Satisfied can probably follow up his Musselburgh win on Monday with last years runner up Hartside and the probable front runner Boldbob making the frame. The 4-10 is a tricky little chase with three or maybe four having winnable chances. The two at the bottom of the handicap, Looking Well and Jac The Legend can go well along with Another Hero. But its a horse in an earlier race that catches my eye and its one that you will know well being ex Irish. Sailors Warn is the animal in question and i reckon he must go very close to winning this 2m 3f handicap hurdle. I know he hasnt won since 2014 but he has been getting his act together lately and now competes off a 20lb lower mark than his last win. Add to that the fact that he has the very useful conditional jockey Thomas Cheeseman taking another 5lb off which is a nice little bonus. He has been staying on late in his last two races and now steps up a couple of furlongs in trip. The Dan Skelton horse will make the market for us and is a danger but still has a bit to prove. There are a few in this which are just not doing it lately and the selection has a great chance.
    Over at Plumpton, the only race that interested me was the handicap hurdle at 3-00. Cannon Fodder is a favourite of mine but i just worry that this drop back in trip will be against her. Rock Gone has been off the course since December 2014 but Dr Newland can ready one and if you do fancy that dont let that fact put you off. I thought that two with definite chances were Billy No Name and First Avenue. I quite fancy the latter in these conditions and although he hasnt won since June 2014 he did run well at Lingfield in December and he is not without a decent chance.

    Bets -

    20 E.W. - Sailors Warn @ 11/2
    10 E.W. - First Avenue @ 11/2

    Best of luck if you're getting stuck in tomorrow.

    QC

  23. 1 Thanks from:
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