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Thread: Rambling and Gambling

  1. #3241
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    "the paper's comment that it may possibly blow the start"

    I know for a fact that you dont need me to tell you but the last thing i would do is take any notice of the comments in any of the papers. You will have looked at comments many times and wondered if the writer of them had actually watched the race. There is never a day goes by when i look at them and are certain that he'd been looking at a different horse. Another way to do it is compare the comments from the RP and the Attheraces site. They very, very rarely tell the same story. I appreciate that not everyone has the time to look at the replays but its the only way of getting the actual facts. As i always say, believe what your eyes tell you and NOT what you hear or read.

  2. #3242
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    But going back to Biotic, it can be slowly away. Its something that the horse has done many times. That said, it hasnt stopped it winning eight races. And if you look at the comments from the Attheraces site for its last run, they start off their piece by saying "mid division". The RP say "dwelt".
    The only way to know is to watch it yourself.

    Off out now, back for 11.00 (ish) and the decs.

    Have a good day all.

  3. #3243
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    Yeah, as you say, it’s something I’m well aware of and have mentioned myself on here several times. It’s just that I didn’t have the time to check everything out myself last night so was looking for all the pro’s and cons that came to hand.

    On a separate subject, I wonder if people on here have days where the day’s racing is about to start and you just think, yeah I’m happy with my positions for the day, I reckon I’m likely to make a profit. Or days when you think, well maybe i’ve put a bit too much on that one and not enough on that one and the unexpected rain means that one probably won’t get it’s going so I’ll be happy to break even on the day.

    I know these thoughts will be alien to you QC because you only bet when all the planets are aligned but for those of us who bet every day, I wonder if this is the norm?

    By the way, I’m very optimistic of a profit today which is what made me think about this in the first place

  4. #3244
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    Yeah, as you say, it’s something I’m well aware of and have mentioned myself on here several times. It’s just that I didn’t have the time to check everything out myself last night so was looking for all the pro’s and cons that came to hand.

    On a separate subject, I wonder if people on here have days where the day’s racing is about to start and you just think, yeah I’m happy with my positions for the day, I reckon I’m likely to make a profit. Or days when you think, well maybe i’ve put a bit too much on that one and not enough on that one and the unexpected rain means that one probably won’t get it’s going so I’ll be happy to break even on the day.

    I know these thoughts will be alien to you QC because you only bet when all the planets are aligned but for those of us who bet every day, I wonder if this is the norm?

    By the way, I’m very optimistic of a profit today which is what made me think about this in the first place
    I wouldnt know how to answer that but good luck today.

  5. #3245
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    A quick coffee and cake break and then back into it. Four races down, two to go. How on earth i used to do up to two meetings a day years ago is beyond me. I'm knackered now. I ended up doing the two big races at Market Rasen even though they both have fifteen runners. I havent got time to do a full rundown but i will do a brief one.

    Nicky Henderson has the top two here and the pick of them is Casablanca Mix. I know Pacific De Baune won well enough at Newton Abbot last time but he is up 7lb and a different track altogether here. Casablanca Mix was second here in November and won well at Aintree last time out. The horse he beat at Aintree, Indian Temple, has won both of his starts since so the form is holding up very well.
    Henryville has been raised 10lb for his win at Newton Abbot last week which is a bit on the harsh side from where i am sitting. But he has won off higher marks and conditions here will be ideal. He was there at the last in this corresponding race back in 2016 but was brought down after jumping it by Cernunnos. He probably wouldnt have won but he can go ok round here. He was well beaten in the race in 2017 but looked on his way back last week.
    Van Gogh Du Granit won here in March off a 12lb lower mark. He was well beaten at Uttoxeter last time out but this drop back in trip might help.
    Royal Village is interesting. His record round this track reads 2411 and he will have conditions to suit. He has nothing to fear from Pacific De Baune on their meeting at Uttoxeter in May and he wont be far away.
    Get Out Of The Gate has been well beaten in his last two starts and doesnt appeal.
    Darcy Ward is 2lb higher than his C/D second last time out but had won his previous three. I think this mark of 137 puts him out of it.
    Ronava has been raised 19lb for his last two very easy wins but this is a different grade altogether here. I can see him running well without actually being good enough to win.
    Gortroe Joe is up 7lb for his C/D win last time out and has to go well. He has always looked as though there is a half decent race in him although he is inclined to hit one now and again and he cant afford too many mistakes here.
    Gone Platinum has the beating of Darcy Ward on their meeting here last month but is steadily creeping up the handicap.
    More Bucks won this last year off a 6lb lower mark but has been very disappointing of late. He did win off this mark at Ludlow back in January but hasnt shown much since. He did have a spin over hurdles here last week and is possibly one that could bounce back.
    El Terremoto is having his first run back after a wind op, his first run for this stable and also has first time cheekpieces on. He was rated 142 at best but has never been the best of jumpers and doesnt appeal.
    Value At Risk was thought of as top class a few years ago but his jumping was constantly letting him down. It has improved though and with conditions in his favour he is not a forlorn hope.
    Solar Impulse has always been a two miler to me and i cant see him getting home.
    Trigger Nichol has first time blinkers but whether they will help him jump any better i very much doubt. He has trip and ground to suit but he lets himself down a lot with his silly mistakes.

    And that is that. Its a tricky one and one that i am leaving alone. Even Mrs Crossett is struggling to pick one although i have seen her put a red line through seven or eight of them.
    I hope you lot have better luck and manage to find the winner.

  6. #3246
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    QC: El terremoto goes well after a break and would be my selection in this tough race. Also solar impulse always struck me as a well handicapped horse as his last trainer was worse than useless. The 2 obvious drawbacks is the jockey and as you say it might not stay.

  7. #3247
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    I wouldnt know how to answer that but good luck today.
    No luck required mate. Profit for the day already guaranteed with four still to run

    For the record they are the short priced Byline in the 635 (odds on now but was 11/10 earlier).
    645 Newmarket Alfred Boucher Was 3/1 last night but now 6/4 fav with a non-runner
    735 Hamilton Zig Zag Zyggy Win and 3 places
    915 Hamilton Dancing Rave up to 7/1 and drifting like a barge win and places

  8. #3248
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    QC: El terremoto goes well after a break and would be my selection in this tough race. Also solar impulse always struck me as a well handicapped horse as his last trainer was worse than useless. The 2 obvious drawbacks is the jockey and as you say it might not stay.
    Trust you to pick those two !

    Good luck, i think you'll need it.

  9. #3249
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    No luck required mate. Profit for the day already guaranteed with four still to run

    For the record they are the short priced Byline in the 635 (odds on now but was 11/10 earlier).
    645 Newmarket Alfred Boucher Was 3/1 last night but now 6/4 fav with a non-runner
    735 Hamilton Zig Zag Zyggy Win and 3 places
    915 Hamilton Dancing Rave up to 7/1 and drifting like a barge win and places
    Great stuff, something for me to watch now.

  10. #3250
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    Great stuff, something for me to watch now.
    Today has been a lesson in sticking to your own opinions and methods. Bint Soghaan probably wouldn't get the trip in the 545 at Newmarket and didn't stand a chance against the 5/4 fav but, as I've said before on this thread, nobody knows what these young horses are capable off until they try and that includes the handicapper who has very little evidence to go on. First time handicap - wins at 7/2 - strong fav (who had won at 1m 2) finishes fifth.

    Don't want sound like a crowing after-timing prick. Just saying stick to your methods and your bank balance will tell you whether they are right or wrong.

  11. #3251
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    Today has been a lesson in sticking to your own opinions and methods. Bint Soghaan probably wouldn't get the trip in the 545 at Newmarket and didn't stand a chance against the 5/4 fav but, as I've said before on this thread, nobody knows what these young horses are capable off until they try and that includes the handicapper who has very little evidence to go on. First time handicap - wins at 7/2 - strong fav (who had won at 1m 2) finishes fifth.

    Don't want sound like a crowing after-timing prick. Just saying stick to your methods and your bank balance will tell you whether they are right or wrong.
    More to the point, as you say, stick to your own opinions !!!!!! These "experts", "tipsters", "judges", "specialists" etc etc are just hyped up wannabe's. Those four terms have all been used by the RP today to bull up their below average journalists. Ignore the lot of them !

  12. #3252
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    And now Byline

    I'm scurrying round trying to get a few quid on something that has been priced up too high. This has a definite chance but regardless of that, the price is too big.
    The blue will appear soon.

  13. #3253
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    And another one ODM

  14. #3254
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    And another one ODM
    And the 3rd in a photo!

  15. #3255
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    ODM Aah jaysus that was unlucky with zig zag I thought it had won!

  16. #3256
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    Balls. Beaten in a photo at 7/1

  17. #3257
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    ODM Aah jaysus that was unlucky with zig zag I thought it had won!
    Me, you and the commentator mate

  18. #3258
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    Me, you and the commentator mate

  19. #3259
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    It happens. I'm sure I've won as many photo finishes as I've lost - it just never seems like it

  20. #3260
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    QC: El terremoto goes well after a break and would be my selection in this tough race. Also solar impulse always struck me as a well handicapped horse as his last trainer was worse than useless. The 2 obvious drawbacks is the jockey and as you say it might not stay.
    Have a look at the Cartmel 3.05 race mate. Two decent price ones caught my eye, Anteros and Justatenner. They have both been backed but i was only getting on Anteros.

    Job done

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