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Thread: Rambling and Gambling

  1. #3181
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    Well you do surprise me QC. After all the times that you've said that you need to be confident of all the variables before you will consider a race, you then go and pick an amateur jockey's race to look at.. Well this is going to be easy. The first rule of a race like this is pick the best jockey. Serina Brotherton is the best jockey and Sarah Bowen is probably the second best so there are you bets folks.

    Buyer Beware - currently 6/1 Brotherly Company each way 14/1 and a nice little reverse forecast.

    Sorted
    Thank you. I do like surprising people.
    But i'm afraid i am going to have to ask you to go and stand in the naughty corner for an hour for not paying attention . Amateur races are one of my favourite types to look at for many reasons and i've often gone through them on here. Its fairly easy to spot the ones who are very good riders and wouldnt look out of place in a professional race. And its even easier to spot those who are riding as if both arms are cast in plaster and who rubbed their saddles with copious amounts of baby oil before mounting. In a nutshell, there is an advantage to be gained there. Plus, i'm as certain in my mind as i can be that all the riders are trying.
    Unforunately, as we all know, that is not the case in all races. I was chuckling to myself the other day (although it definitely isnt a laughing matter) when i saw seven runner race which had three jocks in it that i am vary wary of. That was definitely a race i wouldnt dream of getting involved in. Give me an amateur race any time.

    And while we are talking about amateur races, Frankelio was jocked up with Becky Smith on board to run in the first at Chester tomorrow night. That was when i was going through all the entries the other day. But the horse wasnt declared at the final dec stage yesterday and currently isnt entered in any races. But that isnt a bad thing because Sir Micky knows what he is doing and the horses mark is due to drop from 79 to 76 as from Saturday so i doubt it will be very long before we see him.

    Have a good day all.

  2. #3182
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    A piece about The Jam Man for those who havent read it.

    https://3furlongsout.com/2019/07/09/...of-his-rivals/

  3. #3183
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    I consider myself well and trust chastised

    I must pay more attention. Although Iíve seen races where itís turned out that one of the best horses in the race has won DESPITE the jockeyís best efforts to do an impression of a bag of coal. Plus, the wider betting public must be attracted to the jockey names that they recognise (although perhaps they arenít the kind of people who will largely affect the very early prices that you would be taking. Having said that, the bookies would be aware of that and probably factor it into the early prices anyway).

  4. #3184
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    I consider myself well and trust chastised

    I must pay more attention. Although I’ve seen races where it’s turned out that one of the best horses in the race has won DESPITE the jockey’s best efforts to do an impression of a bag of coal. Plus, the wider betting public must be attracted to the jockey names that they recognise (although perhaps they aren’t the kind of people who will largely affect the very early prices that you would be taking. Having said that, the bookies would be aware of that and probably factor it into the early prices anyway).

    Cant argue with any of that. But as i said earlier, at least i know when i watch those type of races that ALL the jocks are trying. Which as we all know isnt the case in the professional game.

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  6. #3185
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post

    Cant argue with any of that. But as i said earlier, at least i know when i watch those type of races that ALL the jocks are trying. Which as we all know isnt the case in the professional game.

  7. #3186
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    Brotherly company Non Runner

  8. #3187
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    PERL BLANCA IS A CASE.

    What always interests me is a horse that won the race last year.

    It means that the horse acts on the course / at this time of year / and has probably been targeted at this race.

    I don't know if there are any databases that would give results for these.

    But similarly I wonder about horses that may have placed in race last year - perhaps unlucky or just beaten narrowly.

  9. #3188
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    While i can still be pestered typing up my thoughts on a race each day i will carry on. The race that interests me tomorrow is the apprentice race at Chepstow, the 6.00.

    The top horse, Sigrid Nansen, will be hard to beat. But he has been put up 13lb for his two recent wins although he is a pound well in here as his mark of 58 doesnt kick in until Saturday. The trip and ground are ideal and young Cieren Fallon takes the ride again after winning on this horse last time out.

    Purple Jazz has been tailed on all four starts for this stable. This quicker ground is the only positive i can find.

    Next is Carnage who won a hurdle at Warwick last time out in May. The odds on fav in that race fell early so the performance may not have been that meritorious. Conditions should suit.

    Muraaqeb was tailed at Epsom last time out but did win on the AW in May. He is 3lb higher here than that win. This trip, especially round here, seems to stretch him and he looks better on the sand.

    Then theres Lauberhorn Rocket who was well beaten at Nottingham last time out where the ground was heavy. The trip might have stretched him that day but he hasnt really shown anything that would put him in here with a chance.

    On to Das Kapital who didnt run too badly when third at Nottingham last month. But he was disappointing at Bath last time out and he has been beaten 30L+ on all three runs on quick ground.

    Crindle Carr was completely tailed in a hurdle race here back in March. He did win on the AW last year and has gone well round here in the past. Conditions will suit.

    The Wire Flyer has shown very little so far and was tailed on his only run on turf. He did show some improvement at Wolverhampton last time out but it was a very bad race.

    Cougar Kid is interesting and wont be far away. Although he is 0/5 on his flat runs on the grass, he has won four hurdle races. He stays this trip well and the ground wont be a problem. This track should play to his strengths and i can see him going well. The young lass on board has ridden a few winners and trainer John O'Shea has had plenty of winners at Chepstow over the years.

    Ice Cool Cullis has first time cheekpieces on but has shown very little so far. At least his stable is getting a few winners.

    Interrogation has shown absolutely nothing and i will give up cake if this wins !

    And now for the fly in the ointment. Artiste Celebre is having its first run for Christian Williams here having left Debbie Faulkner after only one run for her and prior to that, having only one run for Carroll Gray. His last run was a fourth in a hurdle race at Ffos Las which was its first outing for 20 months. He has shown glimmers of form here and there and needs watching on its first start for a stable that can definitely line one up.

    The fav, Sigrid Nansen, is the probable winner but his price will reflect that. Mrs Crossett has been instructed () to get on Cougar Kid each way but of course she has already told me she is doing the forecast as well. And Artiste Celebre is the one to keep an eye on.

    Thoughts, views, opinions welcome as usual.

  10. #3189
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    Aah QC you go from an amateur race to an apprentice race! Young Fallon is clearly going to be a good jockey whether he will be as good as his old man only time will tell! Anyway deffo the Christian Williams horse is 5he one to keep the eye on but one could not back it. What price is that cougar kid?

  11. #3190
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    Aah QC you go from an amateur race to an apprentice race! Young Fallon is clearly going to be a good jockey whether he will be as good as his old man only time will tell! Anyway deffo the Christian Williams horse is 5he one to keep the eye on but one could not back it. What price is that cougar kid?
    Cougar Kid is 12's mate, i put him in at 8's.
    I like amateur and apprentice races. It means GL and co cant compete !

    I did another race, the last at Chester and i had a few negatives for the front few in the betting. I know Franny Norton is the "King Of Chester" but he'll need to be to get So Near So Farrh home. I just dont think this track will suit the horse one bit, He's just a grinder and needs a long straight to get himself going. He aint gonna get that at Chester is he !?!? A couple more look dubious stayers and i put a line thru them and it was Perfect Summer that i thought had every chance. He deffo wont be far away.

  12. #3191
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    Cougar Kid is 12's mate, i put him in at 8's.
    I like amateur and apprentice races. It means GL and co cant compete !

    I did another race, the last at Chester and i had a few negatives for the front few in the betting. I know Franny Norton is the "King Of Chester" but he'll need to be to get So Near So Farrh home. I just dont think this track will suit the horse one bit, He's just a grinder and needs a long straight to get himself going. He aint gonna get that at Chester is he !?!? A couple more look dubious stayers and i put a line thru them and it was Perfect Summer that i thought had every chance. He deffo wont be far away.

    Cheers I will have a look at other race in the morning. I have noticed that GL isn’t getting many rides recently. A lot of those stables up north seem to be at it. 1 stable that is trained by a former champion jockeys other half seems to run there horses by there own code!

  13. #3192
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    Sigrid Nanson. Taking in all of the points that QC has made, I'd be happy to take one each way at a bigger price than take a chance on this at 6/4. I accept that it is in form and is 1lb under what it's new rating will be but it has never won off that weight and has never been turned out so quickly as it is being now in order to take advantage before the revised weight kicks in. Fallon is great and will become brilliant in my view but not for me at that price.

    Purple Jazz's recent form is poor, there's no denying but it is a better horse on good to firm. It's only win came at around this time of the year last year but not enough positives to be worth taking a chance on for me. Best price 14/1 in one place, 12/1 in the rest

    Carnage is an intriguing one for me. Three piss-poor efforts on the all weather and three nondescript races over hurdles up to March and then two decent efforts over them since finishing 3rd and 1st at 40/1. With young horses, I often like to apply the "what if" question. What if this horse is just shite on the all-weather and its two latest runs are actually an indication that it's an improving four year old ? So far it's only ran on good ground (and variations thereof) but its sire loved good to firm ground so what if it takes after him in that respect, loves the ground, is improving with every race and what if it hoses up tomorrow? Could happen. To me it's worth taking a chance on.

    I have further evidence your honour. Check out the form of its dam and you'll see two runs on the all weather. Last and 6th of 10. Check out her form on good to firm. One poor one, one 3rd of 16 and a win.

    Muraaqueb. Good all weather form but that goes to a heap of rat shit on grass regardless of what the going is. Will give it a miss at 12/1

    Lauberhorn Rocket . Lightly raced 4 year old. Placed on last 2 trips. First time on anything other than AW or heavy ground so unknown on surface and therefore possibly worth a look at for me at 6/1. Ran a decent race three races ago at Wolves after pulling for it's head and then seeming to run green in the finish but finished off the race quite well and enough to suggest it can improve if liking the ground and settling better.

    Das Kapital . Won't like the ground on all evidence but there is money for it at the moment 14/1

    Crindle Car. Its runs on Good to Firm stand out as two of its best which, in itself is enough to make it worth another look but it has also had decent runs at tomorrows track and if you're looking for a big outsider than this is the one for you at 25/1

    The Wire Flyer. Decent run on its handicap debut last time out. The Handicapper must be pretty pleased with his initial work as he is showing no signs of straying far from his initial rating. Again, lightly races, going unknown and anything can happen. Currently 7/1 and being backed. Another one possibly worth taking a gamble on.

    Cougar Kid. Well campaigned 8 year old over sticks but nothing to recommend it on its flat form. 12/1

    Ice Cool Cullis, Four year old raced only 5 times at odds of 33/1 and over. 50/1 First time cheekpieces unlikely to perform miracles

    Interrogation Similar comments to the above at 66/1. Nuff said


    Artiste Celebre .I'll bow to the Sporting Life's assessment of this one...... has not raced on the flat since his juvenile days; really difficult to assess and would only be of interest if the money is down for some reason.
    Looks like money is coming for it at the moment. 14/1 still available with betfair and paddys

    Short list of three for me.

    Carnage 5/1 available with 1/5 return for places so an each way bet worth a go (I realise that most people don't back ew at 5/1)


    Lauberhorn Rocket. 6/1 available (price drifting) and same comments apply as above.

    The Wire Flyer. Ditto 7/1


    Obviously I'm not going to back all three. I'm torn between Carnage and Lauberhorn Rocket but have come down on the side of Carnage for what it's worth.

    Good luck to anyone having a punt.

  14. #3193
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    ODM- you must have plenty of time on your hands! Well nearly as much as QC! FWIW anyone who doesn’t back ew @5/1 is a mug in my opinion! Best of luck if you get involved too many superbocks here to make informed opinion!

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  16. #3194
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    Cheers I will have a look at other race in the morning. I have noticed that GL isn’t getting many rides recently. A lot of those stables up north seem to be at it. 1 stable that is trained by a former champion jockeys other half seems to run there horses by there own code!

    I would disagree with u here QC on this race and reckon so near so Farrh is a cracking ew bet@ 7/2 or thereabouts eso if all 8 run. Looks a great ew double material. If only I wasn’t on holidays...

  17. #3195
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    Sigrid Nanson. Taking in all of the points that QC has made, I'd be happy to take one each way at a bigger price than take a chance on this at 6/4. I accept that it is in form and is 1lb under what it's new rating will be but it has never won off that weight and has never been turned out so quickly as it is being now in order to take advantage before the revised weight kicks in. Fallon is great and will become brilliant in my view but not for me at that price.

    Purple Jazz's recent form is poor, there's no denying but it is a better horse on good to firm. It's only win came at around this time of the year last year but not enough positives to be worth taking a chance on for me. Best price 14/1 in one place, 12/1 in the rest

    Carnage is an intriguing one for me. Three piss-poor efforts on the all weather and three nondescript races over hurdles up to March and then two decent efforts over them since finishing 3rd and 1st at 40/1. With young horses, I often like to apply the "what if" question. What if this horse is just shite on the all-weather and its two latest runs are actually an indication that it's an improving four year old ? So far it's only ran on good ground (and variations thereof) but its sire loved good to firm ground so what if it takes after him in that respect, loves the ground, is improving with every race and what if it hoses up tomorrow? Could happen. To me it's worth taking a chance on.

    I have further evidence your honour. Check out the form of its dam and you'll see two runs on the all weather. Last and 6th of 10. Check out her form on good to firm. One poor one, one 3rd of 16 and a win.

    Muraaqueb. Good all weather form but that goes to a heap of rat shit on grass regardless of what the going is. Will give it a miss at 12/1

    Lauberhorn Rocket . Lightly raced 4 year old. Placed on last 2 trips. First time on anything other than AW or heavy ground so unknown on surface and therefore possibly worth a look at for me at 6/1. Ran a decent race three races ago at Wolves after pulling for it's head and then seeming to run green in the finish but finished off the race quite well and enough to suggest it can improve if liking the ground and settling better.

    Das Kapital . Won't like the ground on all evidence but there is money for it at the moment 14/1

    Crindle Car. Its runs on Good to Firm stand out as two of its best which, in itself is enough to make it worth another look but it has also had decent runs at tomorrows track and if you're looking for a big outsider than this is the one for you at 25/1

    The Wire Flyer. Decent run on its handicap debut last time out. The Handicapper must be pretty pleased with his initial work as he is showing no signs of straying far from his initial rating. Again, lightly races, going unknown and anything can happen. Currently 7/1 and being backed. Another one possibly worth taking a gamble on.

    Cougar Kid. Well campaigned 8 year old over sticks but nothing to recommend it on its flat form. 12/1

    Ice Cool Cullis, Four year old raced only 5 times at odds of 33/1 and over. 50/1 First time cheekpieces unlikely to perform miracles

    Interrogation Similar comments to the above at 66/1. Nuff said


    Artiste Celebre .I'll bow to the Sporting Life's assessment of this one...... has not raced on the flat since his juvenile days; really difficult to assess and would only be of interest if the money is down for some reason.
    Looks like money is coming for it at the moment. 14/1 still available with betfair and paddys

    Short list of three for me.

    Carnage 5/1 available with 1/5 return for places so an each way bet worth a go (I realise that most people don't back ew at 5/1)


    Lauberhorn Rocket. 6/1 available (price drifting) and same comments apply as above.

    The Wire Flyer. Ditto 7/1



    Obviously I'm not going to back all three. I'm torn between Carnage and Lauberhorn Rocket but have come down on the side of Carnage for what it's worth.

    Good luck to anyone having a punt.
    Great stuff ODM.
    You have passed the test and i am now pleased to offer you the job. You can start doing these as from tonight
    I will take a back seat and enjoy your ramblings.

  18. #3196
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    I would disagree with u here QC on this race and reckon so near so Farrh is a cracking ew bet@ 7/2 or thereabouts eso if all 8 run. Looks a great ew double material. If only I wasn’t on holidays...
    Holidays !!!!!! You have spent more time on here since you were away than you normally do !

    I am really pleased you disagree. Wouldnt it be boring if we all fancied the same horse ?
    For me the horse needs stoking and pushing plenty and Chester doesnt seem his type of track. I wouldnt touch him with counterfeit but thats just my opinion.

    As for GL..................

  19. #3197
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    ODM- you must have plenty of time on your hands! Well nearly as much as QC! FWIW anyone who doesn’t back ew @5/1 is a mug in my opinion! Best of luck if you get involved too many superbocks here to make informed opinion!
    I had a spell back in the mid/late 90's where i was backing each way down to 3/1. I would put them in e.w.dbls or trbls with a local firm who used to bet a quarter odds a place every race, every day. I would look for 8 or 9 runner races where i could easily discount two or three of the runners. They werent always "bad each way" races, as they are known in the trade, but to be fair, most of them were. I took them for bundles until they finally clicked and stopped the quarter odds. I was still hitting them with the normal place terms and then they barred me.

    Bugger !

  20. #3198
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    ODM- you must have plenty of time on your hands! Well nearly as much as QC! FWIW anyone who doesn’t back ew @5/1 is a mug in my opinion! Best of luck if you get involved too many superbocks here to make informed opinion!
    I back 5/1 and above e/w however statistically I believe win only long term is more profitable than e/w.

    Hugh Taylor for example does win only for all his selections up to 20/1, only higher than that does he go e/w, but then he's good enough that he can afford to go that way
    Last edited by typhoon; 12-07-2019 at 08:53.

  21. #3199
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    Quote Originally Posted by typhoon View Post
    I back 5/1 and above e/w however statistically I believe win only long term is more profitable than e/w.

    Hugh Taylor for example does win only for all his selections up to 20/1, only higher than that does he go e/w
    statistically it might be but the enivitable losing run will drain confidence. I don’t set any strict rules and would often Dutch a few in a race in stead of just backing 1 horse ew.

  22. #3200
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    Holidays !!!!!! You have spent more time on here since you were away than you normally do !

    I am really pleased you disagree. Wouldnt it be boring if we all fancied the same horse ?
    For me the horse needs stoking and pushing plenty and Chester doesnt seem his type of track. I wouldnt touch him with counterfeit but thats just my opinion.

    As for GL..................

    I might bow to your superior knowledge on this so. Are you going to place lay it? I will Look at it again later on today. Still 8 runners at the moment.

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