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Thread: Rambling and Gambling

  1. #3081
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    I'm just sat here sifting through the weekends cards and i'm currently on Sundays card at Cartmel. And looking through the 3.05 i have come across our friend The Jam Man again. And to pass the time for two minutes i have just jotted down his form figures for his races in Ireland and his figures for over here in Britain. All i can say is, it must be something in the air here.

    His form figures in Ireland - 5F70000P26702F9P3007

    And now his form figures over here - 61113111

  2. 1 Thanks from:
    typhoon

  3. #3082
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    And then you have the likes of Eve Johnston Houghton who tweets to warn punters that her horse maybe carrying a 1lb or 2 overweight. Refreshingly honest
    Last edited by typhoon; 27-06-2019 at 00:15.

  4. #3083
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    Ratings question.

    Faylaq 2.45 was as easy a winner as I have ever seen.

    Was rated 73.

    Sporting Life says it went up 12 but it is off 73 today - what am I missing? Thanks.

  5. #3084
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    All horses lose their form and then come back into form, thats how it goes. They arent machines. But when you start digging a bit deeper and look at the actual facts in front of you, its no wonder that its hit the headlines. I've put its Irish v British form figures up earlier and they dont make for pleasant reading. But to the lads on here reading this, the game is all about betting. So when you see that a horse trained in Ireland, more often than not goes off at various prices between 20/1 and 100/1, eleven times out of eighteen races to be exact, its easy to see why the average punter would readily dismiss it. But then when you look at its starting prices when its raced in England and Scotland, it again raises eyebrows. Its first ever start in Britain was at Ayr back in February of last year. It went off at 12/1 but that doesnt tell the whole story. If i remember rightly, and if anyone knows better i would like to hear your recollection, it opened around 25/1 or 33's in the early prices and was hammered down to around 5's before drifting out. When the betting opened on course it opened at 8's before drifting to an SP of 12/1. But it was backed ! Unlike any of its prior runs in Ireland. But now we can look at its SP's in its other seven British runs and see how they compare with the regular large double figure odds in ts Irish races. Over here it has gone off at 9/2, 4/6, 4/7, 2/1, 7/4, 10/11, 9/4.
    What can we deduce from it all ? I'll leave that up to you. I've got my thoughts. But what i will say is that, and i've spoken with Jombo about this a few times on here, i will not touch certain races where a jockey/s or a trainer/s have rides/runners. Form goes out of the window too many times for my liking when certain individuals are involved.

    And finally , for someone who has stopped having a go at the BHA, i seem to having a go at the BHA a bit over the past couple of days. But they are inept, a shambles, utterly useless. They should be on to this sort of thing straight away and dig and dig and then dig some more. All we have had out of them is the statement that there "appeared" to be some improvement ! Are they for f****** real !?!? They are supposed to have betting intelligence people. But for that job, intelligence is needed. And thats where they are going wrong. They wouldnt know where to start ! I am certain they dont actually know what they are supposed to be looking at.


    Have a good day all.
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 27-06-2019 at 08:25.

  6. #3085
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    Ratings question.

    Faylaq 2.45 was as easy a winner as I have ever seen.

    Was rated 73.
    Sporting Life says it went up 12 but it is off 73 today - what am I missing? Thanks.

    It won last week off a mark of 73 and has got a 6lb penalty which has taken it up to 79. Thats what it runs off today. It won at Ripon last Thursday but the ratings for horses are only revised on a Tuesday. So two days ago it was given a rating of 85 but those ratings dont kick in until the Saturday after being re-assessed. So if it had been entered for a race next Tuesday for instance then it would run off 85.
    Thats how Impressive Duke, who i mentioned a day or two back, can run off 89 at Cartmel tomorrow but has to run off its revised mark of 104 on Sunday, i.e. the day after the revised mark has kicked in.
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 27-06-2019 at 12:18.

  7. #3086
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    Super - Thanks QC - Great to have a Top Man on the forum.

  8. #3087
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    Super - Thanks QC - Great to have a Top Man on the forum.
    I'm just an anorak mate.

    Dunno if this will help any more, it basically just covers what i said earlier. I was on the database half an hour ago so i copied this for you.

    The ratings are updated on a weekly basis and published every Tuesday at 07:00. These figures take into account all performances in all races from the previous racing week, including British runners abroad. For handicapping purposes, the racing week starts every Sunday and ends every Saturday night.
    By Tuesday morning, we have already published the entries and weights for races until the end of Friday. The revised ratings only affect the weights for races from Saturday onwards. This is to enable trainers to race their horses as planned in the intervening days without having to account for any change in rating.
    Trainers usually make their entries six days before a race is staged. However, entries for races staged both on Saturdays and Sundays are made on the preceding Monday. This means trainers must enter for those races without knowing what their horses’ revised handicap marks will be.

    Hows that ?

  9. #3088
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    Excellent Thanks.

    Also - Have you a 'rule-of-thumb' for comparing Irish and UK ratings.

  10. #3089
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    Excellent Thanks.

    Also - Have you a 'rule-of-thumb' for comparing Irish and UK ratings.
    Not really mate. Its a bit of a sore point with British trainers at the moment and that is the case with me also. Its actually something i am trying to steer away from. I have more or less stopped looking at Perth because its now just a Gordon Elliott benefit meeting. And even by having a runner or two in every race he is spoiling the market at times.
    There are a few Irish trained runners at Cartmel tomorrow but it isnt as bad as it could be so i'm doing three there. I've already done the last race, the Amateurs handicap hurdle, and i defy anybody on here to back anything in the race with 100% confidence.

  11. #3090
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    After your comments - Bit surprised Impressive Duke not going tomorrow.

  12. #3091
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    After your comments - Bit surprised Impressive Duke not going tomorrow.
    Yeah, i thought he would run.

  13. #3092
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    This just shows how amateurish and downright useless todays "traders" and bookies are. In the 5.10 at Cartmel tomorrow, Curious Carlos has been a non runner since 7.43 this evening. Only seven firms (as i type this) have done a rule 4 and changed the betting and five firms have actually shortened it since it was taken out.
    They are so useless it beggars belief !!!

  14. #3093
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    Of course the cynics amongst us would look at firms shortening up horses from 7/2 to 3/1 after it has been pulled as a way of getting a bigger rule 4. Lets face it, 7/2 equals a 20p rule 4 whereas a 3/1 chance means a 25p one. But you dont have to be a cynic, it does happen. I've seen it done and i've had a go at a rep who is often seen on tv about it. Of course he denied it but it didnt wash.
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 28-06-2019 at 08:40.

  15. #3094
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    Its now an hour since the horse was pulled out and yet there are still 15 firms with it still in the betting. And for all the poor punters who have had the misfortune to bet with these thieves, you're gonna get hit with a 25p rule 4.
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 27-06-2019 at 20:53.

  16. #3095
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    I'm just sat here sifting through the weekends cards and i'm currently on Sundays card at Cartmel. And looking through the 3.05 i have come across our friend The Jam Man again. And to pass the time for two minutes i have just jotted down his form figures for his races in Ireland and his figures for over here in Britain. All i can say is, it must be something in the air here.

    His form figures in Ireland - 5F70000P26702F9P3007

    And now his form figures over here - 61113111

    Surely you, above anybody, would not begrudge a poor struggling Irish trainer a wee bit of jam on his soda bread every now and then ...

  17. #3096
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post

    Surely you, above anybody, would not begrudge a poor struggling Irish trainer a wee bit of jam on his soda bread every now and then ...
    To be absolutely truthful, i dont. Its obviously been well planned, although connections would deny it, and the plan has come off. Sir Micky does it and so do many, many others. Some are more blatant than others and unfortunately, some of those are just crooks !!! I watch Sir Micky's yard closely and i have a list of horses that are going through the motions at the moment and its just a matter of being patient. For instance, i have one of his jumpers on my list that needs soft ground and although we will get some between now and Autumn, he wouldnt be able to plot its route to victory simply because its summer time. So its a case of waiting until the rain sets in later in the year and then hoping i time it right for when the handbrake is released.

    Dunno about jam on his soda bread though. More like Beluga Caviar followed by Lobster Thermidor and a big slab of Black Forest Gateaux.

  18. #3097
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    Frankelio is down to run at Pontefract on Monday. I was sure Sir Micky would look for a race there for him bearing in mind its the track where he has had most success over the years. Conditions, currently good to soft at this moment in time, look ideal and this one mile race is there for the taking.
    The jockey booking is a disappointment though. But then again, i knew it was coming.

  19. #3098
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    I'm just starting on Sundays Cartmel card and our friend, The Jam Man, has been declared for the three and a quarter mile chase at 3.05. He's up to a mark of 121 and has got 12-2 on his back. Aidan Coleman again takes the ride in what is a similar type race to the one he won at Southwell last Monday. The trainer will have expected the 7lb rise so i doubt he will be choking on his Fugu starter done in saffron, followed by Kobe Beef with white truffles done in a matsutake sauce.

    Jam with soda bread

  20. #3099
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    I'm just starting on Sundays Cartmel card and our friend, The Jam Man, has been declared for the three and a quarter mile chase at 3.05. He's up to a mark of 121 and has got 12-2 on his back. Aidan Coleman again takes the ride in what is a similar type race to the one he won at Southwell last Monday. The trainer will have expected the 7lb rise so i doubt he will be choking on his Fugu starter done in saffron, followed by Kobe Beef with white truffles done in a matsutake sauce.

    Jam with soda bread
    best of luck with it. deffo wouldn't be for me. what price do you reckon it will be?

  21. #3100
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    best of luck with it. deffo wouldn't be for me. what price do you reckon it will be?
    I havent done it yet mate, thats for later. I've done one race there but i started with the last race, the long distance handicap hurdle.

    Mrs Crossett has started off well. She's had her each way patent as usual and Ever So Much was her first one. Normally when i put her last few selections up they finish tailed so lets see how todays go. I know whats she's backed coz i marked them down for her. She's got Mac Cennetig (Sir Micky) in the 4.35 and Sleepy Haven in the 5.10.

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