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Thread: Rambling and Gambling

  1. #4681
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    Back to handicap marks again. Mrs Crossett and I went out for lunch so i've just watched the Racing Debate. I listened closely to the BHA handicapper, Martin Greenwood, trying to explain the difference in handicap marks for Irish horses coming over here and vice versa. In my opinion, and some people will not agree and Mr Greenwood definitely wouldnt, i think that he would love to say that the Irish handicapper doesnt know what he is doing and he is only correcting their mistakes. That might sound a bit controversial but remember that he is a BHA employee and they think they are the best and can do no wrong ! But we all know that that is not the case and they need to listen more.
    There is hardly a day goes by where i dont see a handicap mark of an Irish, or ex Irish horse, and think how on earth has the BHA handicapper given him that mark. There was one today. In the Market Rasen 3.15 race, the ex Jonathan Fogarty trained Robin Gold was down to have his second run for Dan Skelton off a mark of 110. This mare finally got her head in front on her eighth start for Fogarty when winning a poor Thurles mares handicap off a mark of 85. She followed up a week later when scraping home by half a length off 90. She was then put up to 99 and was completely tailed on her next outing and beaten 69L. She then went over fences and was beaten 28L, 40L and 69L in her next three outings. She then moved to Skelton but was put up another 5lb and raced off 104 when falling when beaten at Market Rasen. Today she was back over hurdles and was now up even more to a career high mark of 110 ! That is a massive 20lb higher than when just getting home at Clonmel.


  2. #4682
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    Back to handicap marks again. Mrs Crossett and I went out for lunch so i've just watched the Racing Debate. I listened closely to the BHA handicapper, Martin Greenwood, trying to explain the difference in handicap marks for Irish horses coming over here and vice versa. In my opinion, and some people will not agree and Mr Greenwood definitely wouldnt, i think that he would love to say that the Irish handicapper doesnt know what he is doing and he is only correcting their mistakes. That might sound a bit controversial but remember that he is a BHA employee and they think they are the best and can do no wrong ! But we all know that that is not the case and they need to listen more.
    There is hardly a day goes by where i dont see a handicap mark of an Irish, or ex Irish horse, and think how on earth has the BHA handicapper given him that mark. There was one today. In the Market Rasen 3.15 race, the ex Jonathan Fogarty trained Robin Gold was down to have his second run for Dan Skelton off a mark of 110. This mare finally got her head in front on her eighth start for Fogarty when winning a poor Thurles mares handicap off a mark of 85. She followed up a week later when scraping home by half a length off 90. She was then put up to 99 and was completely tailed on her next outing and beaten 69L. She then went over fences and was beaten 28L, 40L and 69L in her next three outings. She then moved to Skelton but was put up another 5lb and raced off 104 when falling when beaten at Market Rasen. Today she was back over hurdles and was now up even more to a career high mark of 110 ! That is a massive 20lb higher than when just getting home at Clonmel.

    I can remember when an irish horse never won a handicap in England. It's fairly obvious that horses are rated too high by English handicapper mainly to say that they have the best horses etc. if they brought in a standardised handicapping system it deffo woudn't suit there mid tier handicappper's as they would be rated lower. The poor prizemoney in england is probably the cause of this. Maybe brexit will change this....

  3. #4683
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    I've actually enjoyed doing a couple of all weather races over the past few days and if this one tomorrow manages to win or hit the frame, i might become a convert !

    Yeah right !!!!!!!

    In the first at Lingers, the obvious ones, Cheng Gong, River Dart and Capricorn Prince will head the market and obviously run well, Of those three, i like Cheng Gong most.
    I would definitely keep an eye on Billy Star from the Jimmy Fox yard. This one has shown enough to suggest he will win a race and the stable went for a touch here on Saturday with Purple Paddy who wasnt beaten far in third. Beware with that one.
    I see there has been early money around for the bottom horse, Lottie Deno, but i am struggling to see the angle on this one. It has been campaigned over six and seven furlongs and makes the big jump up to a mile and a half here.
    But, as is often the case, there is usually something that has been overlooked and underestimated and that applies here. The John Berry trained Hidden Pearl has a far better chance than the current odds of 25/1 would suggest. This filly ran an absolute cracker of a race at Chelmsford just before xmas when beaten just a neck by the prolific winner, Clap Your Hands. That horse has won its last four races and won off a mark of 88 at Wolverhampton last Monday. He is certainly going to go up into the 90's when the revised marks come out on Tuesday morning. Hidden Pearl was only getting 5lb that day courtesy of the jocks claim and if she repeats that run here she wins, end of !!
    She was beaten over further next time out and at Wolves last week she was sent over a most inadequate trip of nine and a half furlongs. But she ran really well that day and was keeping on really well on the rails late on over that trip which would not have suited her one bit. She was only beaten just over four lengths and back over a more suitable trip and against a moderate bunch, she must go well.
    The 25/1 is an insult !

    If this runs well you can stuff your Cheltenham. I'll be a Southwell and Chelmsford sort of bloke from now on !

  4. #4684
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    Good morning all,

    Although i dont know whats good about it, its still blowing a gale here although the rain has stopped. The wind got very bad in the night and i almost allowed Mrs Crossett back in the house. It must have been cold in that tent !

    As i said a few days ago, i hope some of you are laying these overpriced horses back. I know its nice when they cop but they wont always win and i dont like to see friends on here lose money. That said, if they are all fit and well and they all run to form, i think she wins.

    There's a lovely class 6 one mile and threequarter handicap at Southwell tomorrow night. I'm starting it now.

  5. #4685
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    I am definitely going soft in my old age. Thats what my missus has just told me.
    Must be distressing - But I think there is a little tablet that helps with that sort of problem.

  6. #4686
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    Must be distressing - But I think there is a little tablet that helps with that sort of problem.

    Very good mate. But all in good working order here.

  7. #4687
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    If anyone backed it each way i'm certain you can call yourselves unlucky. The second horse has cut across her inside the last and made her swerve and Nicola stopped riding for a couple of strides. And she's only missed third by a short head.

    But not to worry, there's always tomorrow. There's one at Southwell but i cant really seeing the guessers putting it in that much bigger than it should be but i reckon that they will go too big about the one at Musselburgh.
    They both have sporting chances.

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  9. #4688
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    No time tonight for a 3000 word essay so if you are having a bet tomorrow, you could possibly do worse than have a look at these two before you jump in.

    First of all, My Strong Man in the last at Southwell. Although its form figures show that it hasnt run on the flat since November 2018, it has been running fairly well over hurdles of late. It was a decent fourth at Newcastle last time out to Kauto D'Amour in what was a half decent novices handicap hurdle. Its ability to act on the fibresand has to be taken on trust but it likes to be up with the pace and with this featherweight of 8-4 i'd be amazed if he wasnt ridden prominently. That would potentially eliminate the kickback problem.

    Next up is So Satisfied in the 4.35 at Musselburgh. This horse loves it round this track as its course form figures of 3122414 show. He ran a fairly decent race on his comeback run at Catterick last time out and has been dropped 4lb for that. It actually surprised me that he had been dropped so much and i think his trainer might feel the same way. He was trying to give Ask Paddy 4lb and bearing in mind that "Paddy" is on a bit of a roll at the moment, he was never going to win. But with that run under his belt and off a mark 4lb lower than his course and distance win last February, he has to go well. This isnt a great race and if the ground hadnt been soft i think our friend Kenny Johnson might have gone close with King Golan. But its So Satisfied for me.
    And Mrs Crossett

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  11. #4689
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    Anybody know where I can get a detailed breakdown of a jockey's rides going back to the start of the year. Everywhere I've looked either only goes back a certain number of rides (RacingPost, Sportinglife) or just gives a number of rides, winners etc and I want to see a list of every ride by date.

    Thanks in advance

  12. #4690
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    At the risk of looking like one of those spammers who posts up a question and then answers it with a link to his own website I just found the answer to my question but I'm still open to suggestions of good racing websites to look at (free ones and definitely not tipping sites).

    The answer to my question was the Timeform site by the way

  13. #4691
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    Invicta Lake has been entered in both a hurdle and a chase at Fontwell next Sunday. He has been dropped another 3lb and if they want to get another win out of him before it is too late (and i reckon that is the plan) then they must strike soon. He is now down to 87 and if it was down to me i would go for the hurdle race. He has never convinced me as a chaser. But i still think the plan is for Plumpton next Monday. The decs are out later so we will see if he is entered. I'd be amazed if he wasnt !

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  15. #4692
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    A very competitive Veterans chase at Donny tomorrow. I havent got a clue whats going to win it although i have got a shortlist of three and i have a feeling that one of them is going to be put in too big when the guessers open up.

    Lets hope so eh ?!?!

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  17. #4693
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    You're welcome Gamblor

  18. #4694
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    Well that has surprised me. Invicta Lake is not entered up next Monday at Plumpton. I admit that the shorter trip at Fontwell will probably suit him better but the Plumpton race looks far easier.

    If i had a thinking cap i would put it on.
    He was entered for a chase just over a week ago but surely they will go for the hurdle race if they go at all.

  19. #4695
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    Strange betting on My Strong Man today. It was allowed to drift out to 16/1 by the guessers and as high as 29 on Betfair. But in the last hour or so it has come down (as i type) to 8.8 on the machine and around 8/1 in the books. My involvement with the horse and also So Satisfied was completed last night but i wish i had seen the 29's.
    Unfortunately, my head was stuck into Ludlow and Doncaster.

  20. #4696
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    I have to admit that i am surprised that Cryogenics has only been raised 7lb for its win at Fakenham last Friday. As i said a few days ago, there have been some dramatic increases in marks after certain horses have won and i was definitely expecting it here. I think we would all agree that the horse absolutely sluiced in with Alison Clarke looking round for dangers a couple of times and i also think that the horse could have gone round again. The horse will definitely win more races but whether he wins next time out is a different matter.
    I note that he has been entered for a "jumpers bumper" at Newcastle on Friday.

  21. #4697
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    That disq horse that did not weigh in - Ladbs treating as loser - No money back - I this correct
    ? Thanks

  22. #4698
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    That disq horse that did not weigh in - Ladbs treating as loser - No money back - I this correct
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    Yes mate. ALL firms should treat it as a loser. Within the rules that have been around for many a year are lines that read that horses have to complete the correct course and also carry the correct weight. Bingo D'Olivate didnt so had to be disqualified and is a loser.

  23. #4699
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    Cheers - Lad in pub had a nifty on it - Sickened to have backed ‘a winner’ and get zero back - But I thought as you confirmed - Just double checking. Thanks

  24. #4700
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    There's one at Ludlow tomorrow that has been put in far too big at 20/1. I had it much shorter and this has to drop. The horse is All Is Good and it runs in a very poor novices handicap chase over 2 miles. It was just beaten a neck by Baby King here last April off a mark of 106 and gets in here off 99. That sort of form is far superior than anything this field has mustered and although it hasnt shown much in two starts this season, it should be nearing its best now. Tabitha Worsley is well worth her claim and this is definitely NOT a 20/1 chance !!!!!!!!!!!

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