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Thread: Rambling and Gambling

  1. #5921
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    Thanks - I was thinking more about Class droppers for example - but anyway I note your comment.

    I did actually know what you were thinking about, but to answer that question from my point of view would have been a (very) long drawn out reply.
    A lot of people presume that just because a horse drops in grade, it automatically has a chance. But you have to ask yourself WHY it has dropped. Is it regressive ? If so, how badly is it regressing ? Is it so much that it wont win in the next grade down either. Should it have been in the higher grade anyway ?? There are so many different questions and answers regarding this and it obviously differs with each and every horse. I much prefer to look at handicap marks than class droppers, they tell a much better story. And dont think that horses who go up in grade after failing to win in a lower grade cant win. There was one just the other day in a race i did but for the life of me i cant remember which horse it was and i've thrown all my notes for that day out. It had been beaten in its previous four runs in class 5 but was up into a class 4 race and won. Many people would have written it off straight away. But these things can win.
    But its the handicap marks that are the focus point for me and they are far more informative. Take our dear old friend Roxyfet. He spends most of his life in class 5 races and since April 2018 he has run in twenty five races of which nine have been in class 4. And he hasnt won a single one of them. And on only one occasion where he has dropped down to class 5 next time out has he won. We all know that Sir Micky puts him in a class 4 to get him down the field so his mark comes down. And then when he has got it down far enough, the maestro releases the handbrake and hey presto the horse wins. But its won because the mark is down to a level the horse can win off. His first win this year was in a hurdle race off a mark of 86 which i highlighted on here a few days before it ran. It hadnt been that low for well over two years but you could just see the route he had plotted. And the horse went on to win three out of four in that spell. But on its next run after those wins, i did come on here and say that it would not win its next race because its mark was now up to 99 and the horse wont win off that sort of mark now. You may remember the day because The Dope put on here the thirty or forty stats from some tipping line or whatever it was, explaining why Roxyfet was the best bet of the day. But just a quick glance of the card and the sight of its mark was enough for me to say no.

    That, believe it or not, was my short reply
    Its the marks for me rather than the class droppers. But as i say all the time, each to their own. The game is all about opinions and as i also say, at the end of the day we are all guessers and we just hope we guess correct.
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 22-08-2020 at 11:53.

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  3. #5922
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    Compiling prices is not an easy job and there are many times when i sit here and scratch my head and wonder where an SP came from. Obviously, money talks, but every possible line of reasoning has to be taken into consideration before you raise your head over the trench and put a price up. But the plain and simple aim when pricing up around teatime the day before a race, is to try and get as close as possible to where the price is going to end up come off time the next day. In other words, you have to go up as close to SP as you possibly can or get there as quick as you can. Believe me, it is far easier said than done but, theoretically, that is the aim.
    Now it may just be me, (it isnt coz i've already rang my mate) and i just cant see how Jonjo's horse in the 3.50 at Cartmel tomorrow can be put in at 7/4. What has it done to be a 7/4 chance ??? I've said to Mrs Crossett that if this thing goes off at 7/4, i will give the game up.

  4. #5923
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    What do you think of Ardera Cross 2.15 15/2 who won the race last year off 2 pounds higher and has won there again since as well? Thanks.

  5. #5924
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    What do you think of Ardera Cross 2.15 15/2 who won the race last year off 2 pounds higher and has won there again since as well? Thanks.
    It must have a chance mate but i thought it was the hardest race on the card so i swerved it. It was only a small field last year when it won and this years renewal looks a bit tougher but course form counts for a lot at Cartmel.

    Second hardest race on the card was the 2.15 but i did have a sneaking fancy for Constancio. But that horse is a non runner now.

    The 3.15 was one i looked at and i was leaning towards Captain Mowbray. But having seen the first two there, it does bring Still Believing into the fray now at a big price. More so if there is any more rain and that ground cuts up further.

    And there was a horse that was entered for the last that i thought would go really well but it wasnt declared. The rain has obviously moved in now and when it came it was never going to be declared. There will be another day however.

  6. #5925
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    QC what do you make of the maestros viking hoard today? it was campaigned strangely last year for another trainer and has plummetted down the handicap. Watching brief for me today tho. his other horse has a squeak too.

  7. #5926
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    QC what do you make of the maestros viking hoard today? it was campaigned strangely last year for another trainer and has plummetted down the handicap. Watching brief for me today tho. his other horse has a squeak too.

    3/1 NOW! is it your money QC?

  8. #5927
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    3/1 NOW! is it your money QC?
    Not guilty mate. I've done five for today but that wasnt one of them. I did look at his two runners obviously and to be fair, if you watch the last run of this horse, it wasnt going too bad at all before it came down at Kelso back in October. Fair enough it still had some ground to make up but there were plenty pushing and shoving and he was still seemingly going well. My mate rang me yesterday teatime to ask what price i thought it would be and off the top of my head i said 12's. He had it the same and has helped himself to much bigger prices. Sadly, i missed them and havent jumped onboard. .

  9. #5928
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    3/1 NOW! is it your money QC?
    14.20 Viking Hoard "Viking Hoard has joined us from Ireland. He has been off for almost a year and did very little last summer. He shapes nicely on the gallops and could have an each-way shout."

    14.20 Rockliffe "Rockcliffe has been struggling in his races on the Flat. Returning to jumping offers a better chance of making an impact but he may have to get back to Catterick to rediscover his best form.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

  10. #5929
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    Not guilty mate. I've done five for today but that wasnt one of them. I did look at his two runners obviously and to be fair, if you watch the last run of this horse, it wasnt going too bad at all before it came down at Kelso back in October. Fair enough it still had some ground to make up but there were plenty pushing and shoving and he was still seemingly going well. My mate rang me yesterday teatime to ask what price i thought it would be and off the top of my head i said 12's. He had it the same and has helped himself to much bigger prices. Sadly, i missed them and havent jumped onboard. .

    well it was either going to be a short price or huge price. his other horse ballycrystal is a huge price now.

  11. #5930
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    13.20 Northwest Frontier "I think Northwest Frontier has a very good chance. He ran well two runs ago at Beverley on his comeback but then found it tough behind Revolver at Pontefract. He has schooled nicely, will get the trip and looks a good each-way bet."
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

  12. #5931
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    I have managed to make a decent whack out of All Yours in the 3.25 but whether it wins or not is a different matter. Go back a couple of years and it would pick this lot up and carry them. He won and was second on the AW earlier in the year and comes here with a better chance than most. The green and white checked colours that he wears landed a nice touch the other day and they have three out today and there has been money for all three. With Messrs Butler and Curran involved, many people could be forgiven for thinking that a certain B.J.Curley might be involved even though he has said he has finished with it all. If the first two go in, i dread to think what price the last one will go off.

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  14. #5932
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    There is one in the last at Beverley today that i have been keeping my eye on although i reckon today is not the day. That said, Mrs Crossett has had a couple of quid each way at 40's.
    The horse is Manzil and it is now with Spittin Mick. It was trained in Ireland in 2018 and won a race at Down Royal for Dermot Weld. Mick has managed to get its mark down from 83 to its current 65 and its winning turn is not far away. If it does win today, you will hear my screams from that side of the water.

    Back to work, i'm on Saturdays already.

  15. #5933
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    The jockey on VIKING HOARD would be a worry to me, the yard don't tend to give winners to outside jockeys, they have stable jockeys at the meeting and as one of them is not riding Viking Hoard, I,m out.

    WATCH IT HACK UP NOW.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

  16. #5934
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    Quote Originally Posted by the dope View Post
    The jockey on VIKING HOARD would be a worry to me, the yard don't tend to give winners to outside jockeys, they have stable jockeys at the meeting and as one of them is not riding Viking Hoard, I,m out.

    WATCH IT HACK UP NOW.
    well noone is going to back it at 9/4 when it was 20s - that's the quickest way to poor house!

  17. #5935
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    well noone is going to back it at 9/4 when it was 20s - that's the quickest way to poor house!

    BOTS
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

  18. #5936
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    if ask paddington beats it the maestro wont be happy!

  19. #5937
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    if ask paddington beats it the maestro wont be happy!
    that won easy in the end. ~+14 pounds on what the maestro did with it~!

  20. #5938
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    that won easy in the end. ~+14 pounds on what the maestro did with it~!
    Just goes to show you how bad a trainer he is.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

  21. #5939
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    Quote Originally Posted by the dope View Post
    Just goes to show you how bad a trainer he is.
    aah he is a great trainer he is not called the maestro for nothing. not many trainers could get roxyfet to win so many races! Just don't believe any of those quotes of his!

  22. #5940
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    Jombo

    I have a mate who lives 2m from the yard and the shoite he hears about horses from the yard is incredible, he is the biggest trainer of our lays by far.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

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