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Thread: Rambling and Gambling

  1. #4381
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  2. #4382
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    It would have to be really soft/heavy to give it any sort of chance but i couldnt be backing it. That said, i do wish the maestro all the very best. And its not the greatest Champion Hurdle you will ever see, far from it. I always like to see a proper champion and at this moment in time we just havent got one. And that applies to the Gold Cup field as well.

    Back to work

  3. #4383
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    A mate of mine who reads this forum has just rung and was telling me that he has backed the horse at 50's but will definitely be doing a rain dance in March. Good luck to him is what i say. But he started going thru his race record and it does put into perspective what a consistent animal he is. I've mentioned before on here the fact that he has never been out of the first three in all thirteen hurdle races. But he has also won four of his last five races with his only defeat coming by a neck at Carlisle when he was ridden by Graham Lee and really should have won. In fact, since October 2017, the horse has only been out of the first three once in eighteen starts and that was when he was beaten less than 2L into fifth in a Redcar handicap when ridden by Graham Lee (bit of a pattern developing here ).

    Haydock next apparently on the 18th for the Champion Hurdle trial at 3.15.

  4. #4384
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    I am with your mate - But experience of ante post has told me that it is so hard just to get a horse to the races - However the price is too good to resist and horse is improving it seems - Could be an Epic one.

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    Realistically its not going to win a Champion Hurdle. But then i think we'd all be hard pressed to actually name what IS going to win it. From where i am sitting, it is a very average renewal this year. There is not one "stand out" horse in the field. The race should be called the "Best Of The Current Bunch Hurdle" for 2020.
    I read one person who said that with Apples Jade coming back to form last time out, he would give her one more chance. Personally, i think she has two hopes. No hope and Bob Hope. But to put that into perspective, there is still some 50's available for her for the race while all the 50's for Cornerstone Lad has dried up and its a top price 40/1 now.

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    As for the Gold Cup, that is nearly as bad. I was hoping Patrick Kelly would give Presenting Percy three or four runs this time round rather than his effort of last season. He has had two so far and is shaping ok. Mrs Crossett, in her wisdom , has backed him at 16's i think mainly because i was ranting on about the horse so much.
    Of the rest, as i have said a few times, i am a fan of Lostintranslation but i just have it in my head that he could be three or four pounds short of winning one. I cant get into Kemboy so those other two aside, it could possibly be Al Boum Photo again.

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    And dont even get me started on a five day festival. Personally, i would take it back to three although i can just about get away with the four days.

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    yea there deffo doesn't look like any superstars this year.

  9. #4389
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    Well I am on Percy and the Lad for ew singles and double.

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    Racing Post obviously read this thread.
    **********

    Insight 2020 VISION
    The betting ring: 'Hopefully it will survive but it's a totally different game'
    The first part in a week-long series on life at the heart of the industry
    Barry Dennis on his pitch at Lingfield: "Any bookmaker with an opinion has gone"
    Barry Dennis on his pitch at Lingfield: "Any bookmaker with an opinion has gone"
    1 of 1
    By Graham Dench
    3:45PM, JAN 5 2020

    Barry Dennis has been a fixture in the Lingfield betting ring for the best part of 40 years and knows better than anyone how things have changed. By contrast Julian Head, who bets as Goodwin Racing, is a relative newcomer.

    The pair have somewhat different approaches to the business, but neither is in denial. The once vibrant on-course market is a shadow of its former self, and at mid-winter midweek fixtures turnover can be dire, with too many bookmakers chasing too little business.

    Both acknowledge it will be hard to arrest the decline in on-course turnover that was accelerated by the advent of the exchanges and the growth of online betting via tablets and mobile phones.

    It's not all doom and gloom, however, and on the Saturday after Christmas it's relatively lively, with a crowd of around 2,600. That total, however, includes children, and there are ten pitches on the rails and another ten in the ring, all chasing business that is distinctly recreational.

    Dennis, of 'Barry's Bismarck' fame and 80 later this month, says: "I admire the new kids coming into the game, full of enthusiasm, and I hope they do well, but it's a totally different game to what it was. Hopefully it will survive, but there's no 'get rich quick' anymore, that's for sure."

    Helpfully, Dennis has kept ledgers from the 'good old days' and he is happy to share details of his current day-to-day turnover levels, as well as a snapshot of his business on this particular day.

    Reflecting first on better times, with his ledger open at 2003 when Betfair was in its infancy, Dennis pointed to days when turnover was many times greater than what is typical nowadays. On one December afternoon it was over 46,000, and on another it was a whopping 72,687.

    He had just one pitch in those days yet typical daily turnover might be in the region of 35,000. He nowadays reckons to average around 9,000 or 10,000 a day from two pitches and can point to afternoons when turnover is as low as 4,000. Even on Good Friday, with a crowd of around 9,000, he took only around 25,000.

    Before he even takes a bet he says he is "around a monkey down", that 500 comprising fees of five times admission price per pitch (entrance is 27 in this instance), plus wages and other everyday fees and expenses.

    He says: "In the old days I was dealing with Ladbrokes and some big punters. Even when I started in the back row I was taking more than I am now.

    "At one time I knew them all but I don't know any of my punters by name now. You just don't get punters betting 200, 400 or 500 in the ring anymore, as they are doing their betting online by their phones.

    "Any bookmaker with an opinion has gone. A couple of Australians came a few years ago and set the ring alight, but they've gone. Loads of different people have come in but they ain't here now. To take decent money you've got to have an opinion, and when you can take a decent bet it's probably a bet you shouldn't be taking."

    He adds: "I used to have 15 pitches and I'd be at all the major southern meetings, betting at 390 meetings a year – doing two a day when possible. Now I only bet at the 80 meetings here, plus Sandown, Epsom on Derby Day and Goodwood 'off' [not Glorious]."

    Dennis admits his age and reluctance to travel are a big factor in his cutting back but he has no plans to retire, saying: "I've had a marvellous time and I'll carry on until I drop. It's been a wonderful life."

    Head has been a bookmaker since 1993, owning a number of betting shops, but decided to change direction due to the likely cull as a result of the lowering of the maximum stake for FOBTs. Four and a half years ago he set up a telephone betting operation at the company he had recently purchased, Goodwin Racing, and to bolster income during its infancy he decided to enter the world of on-course betting.

    Julian Head: "What's really rocked the boat is the exchanges. I can't believe they were legalised"
    Julian Head: "What's really rocked the boat is the exchanges. I can't believe they were legalised"

    He has found the on-course game "surprisingly good" but has nevertheless noticed the decline even in his short time in the ring.

    He says: "It was a great help that we came in from a shop background as this gave us an open mind as to what to expect and we didn't have memories of when on-course betting was a licence to print, pre-Betfair.

    "Our policy is to have a good margin built in on all prices. We try not to hedge and we're not bothered about making a book as we just track the exchange. These tactics do mean we lose on one meeting every five, but overall we make a very healthy 20 per cent profit on turnover which is a much higher percentage than our shop (15 per cent) and our telephone business (ten per cent).

    "This sounds all well and dandy but you still need to turnover at least 600 a race to make it pay as the exes are high."

    He adds: "When we arrived all the live money had appeared to have gone years ago and the business left was purely recreational. It's not unusual for customers to back three or four horses a race and not necessarily the ones at the top of the market, which was a refreshing change to the off-course market."

    While substantial ‘live’ money on course is a rarity these days, there was an instance in December when a punter went down the line backing a horse who had shown nothing whatsoever in seven starts since being claimed.

    Head says: "I laid 500 each-way at 14-1 but I didn't like the look of it as there was a guy going down the line having it on everywhere so I laid it back on the machine, which is unusual for me.

    "I've heard they took 50,000 out of the ring, which wouldn't surprise me, but that's a rarity. I could probably count the number of 1,000 bets I've taken on two hands, but I don't mind that. Smaller fish are sweet, and I'm happy to go home with a profit."

    Head is in no doubt about where the blame lies for the decline of the on-course market.

    He says: "What's really rocked the boat in this industry is the exchanges. It's made margins really tight on horseracing and I can't believe they were ever legalised. Everyone is trying to compete with a zero-rated product, with no margins.

    "Also, bookmakers don't hedge with one another these days. Some will take a bet and then lay it back on the machine at a slightly better price. Hedging on the machine rather than with another bookmaker is bad for the game. It should stay in the ring."

    Besides a fundamental belief that the exchanges should be taxed differently in order to help level the playing field, Head also believes that at many meetings there are too many bookmakers. To help address this he suggests bookmakers should not be allowed multiple pitches in one area, even though this would affect him adversely as he has two pitches here, like Dennis, and at some meetings he may have three in the ring or on the rails.

    He has further concerns about his ageing clientele and the growth of the cashless society, and while he has few regrets about going into on-course bookmaking he is cautious about the future.

    He says: "I love the racecourse life and I'm glad we came into the business, but I wouldn't be thinking of expanding. If anything I'd be cutting down slightly and being a little more selective about where I go."

    For the record, on this particular day Dennis had four losing races out of seven but showed a profit of just short of 3,188, before expenses, on his 14,023 turnover.

    Head also had four losing races, and much of his profit disappeared in the last, when he was paying out to a long queue of small-stakes each-way punters on a 16-1 winner and a 66-1 second while others were packing up. Such a result would have been a good winner for old-style bookmakers, but not for Goodwin Racing.

    Head says: "You can tell who lays the outsiders! I've lost a grand on the last race. Trade was well above average today but results didn’t fall our way and we made only 435 on a turnover of 9,204, which would mean a small loss after exes."

  11. #4391
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    As for the Gold Cup, that is nearly as bad. I was hoping Patrick Kelly would give Presenting Percy three or four runs this time round rather than his effort of last season. He has had two so far and is shaping ok. Mrs Crossett, in her wisdom , has backed him at 16's i think mainly because i was ranting on about the horse so much.
    Of the rest, as i have said a few times, i am a fan of Lostintranslation but i just have it in my head that he could be three or four pounds short of winning one. I cant get into Kemboy so those other two aside, it could possibly be Al Boum Photo again.
    Whats sure is that there are no superstars in the highest grade right now, 12/1, 22/1 and 18/1 was the 1,2,3 last year. for that reason I'd be looking for an improving type, next 7 weeks we're bound to see something.
    Last edited by typhoon; 07-01-2020 at 14:00.

  12. #4392
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    Racing Post obviously read this thread.
    **********

    Insight 2020 VISION
    The betting ring: 'Hopefully it will survive but it's a totally different game'
    The first part in a week-long series on life at the heart of the industry
    Barry Dennis on his pitch at Lingfield: "Any bookmaker with an opinion has gone"
    Barry Dennis on his pitch at Lingfield: "Any bookmaker with an opinion has gone"
    1 of 1
    By Graham Dench
    3:45PM, JAN 5 2020

    Barry Dennis has been a fixture in the Lingfield betting ring for the best part of 40 years and knows better than anyone how things have changed. By contrast Julian Head, who bets as Goodwin Racing, is a relative newcomer.

    The pair have somewhat different approaches to the business, but neither is in denial. The once vibrant on-course market is a shadow of its former self, and at mid-winter midweek fixtures turnover can be dire, with too many bookmakers chasing too little business.

    Both acknowledge it will be hard to arrest the decline in on-course turnover that was accelerated by the advent of the exchanges and the growth of online betting via tablets and mobile phones.

    It's not all doom and gloom, however, and on the Saturday after Christmas it's relatively lively, with a crowd of around 2,600. That total, however, includes children, and there are ten pitches on the rails and another ten in the ring, all chasing business that is distinctly recreational.

    Dennis, of 'Barry's Bismarck' fame and 80 later this month, says: "I admire the new kids coming into the game, full of enthusiasm, and I hope they do well, but it's a totally different game to what it was. Hopefully it will survive, but there's no 'get rich quick' anymore, that's for sure."

    Helpfully, Dennis has kept ledgers from the 'good old days' and he is happy to share details of his current day-to-day turnover levels, as well as a snapshot of his business on this particular day.

    Reflecting first on better times, with his ledger open at 2003 when Betfair was in its infancy, Dennis pointed to days when turnover was many times greater than what is typical nowadays. On one December afternoon it was over 46,000, and on another it was a whopping 72,687.

    He had just one pitch in those days yet typical daily turnover might be in the region of 35,000. He nowadays reckons to average around 9,000 or 10,000 a day from two pitches and can point to afternoons when turnover is as low as 4,000. Even on Good Friday, with a crowd of around 9,000, he took only around 25,000.

    Before he even takes a bet he says he is "around a monkey down", that 500 comprising fees of five times admission price per pitch (entrance is 27 in this instance), plus wages and other everyday fees and expenses.

    He says: "In the old days I was dealing with Ladbrokes and some big punters. Even when I started in the back row I was taking more than I am now.

    "At one time I knew them all but I don't know any of my punters by name now. You just don't get punters betting 200, 400 or 500 in the ring anymore, as they are doing their betting online by their phones.

    "Any bookmaker with an opinion has gone. A couple of Australians came a few years ago and set the ring alight, but they've gone. Loads of different people have come in but they ain't here now. To take decent money you've got to have an opinion, and when you can take a decent bet it's probably a bet you shouldn't be taking."

    He adds: "I used to have 15 pitches and I'd be at all the major southern meetings, betting at 390 meetings a year – doing two a day when possible. Now I only bet at the 80 meetings here, plus Sandown, Epsom on Derby Day and Goodwood 'off' [not Glorious]."

    Dennis admits his age and reluctance to travel are a big factor in his cutting back but he has no plans to retire, saying: "I've had a marvellous time and I'll carry on until I drop. It's been a wonderful life."

    Head has been a bookmaker since 1993, owning a number of betting shops, but decided to change direction due to the likely cull as a result of the lowering of the maximum stake for FOBTs. Four and a half years ago he set up a telephone betting operation at the company he had recently purchased, Goodwin Racing, and to bolster income during its infancy he decided to enter the world of on-course betting.

    Julian Head: "What's really rocked the boat is the exchanges. I can't believe they were legalised"
    Julian Head: "What's really rocked the boat is the exchanges. I can't believe they were legalised"

    He has found the on-course game "surprisingly good" but has nevertheless noticed the decline even in his short time in the ring.

    He says: "It was a great help that we came in from a shop background as this gave us an open mind as to what to expect and we didn't have memories of when on-course betting was a licence to print, pre-Betfair.

    "Our policy is to have a good margin built in on all prices. We try not to hedge and we're not bothered about making a book as we just track the exchange. These tactics do mean we lose on one meeting every five, but overall we make a very healthy 20 per cent profit on turnover which is a much higher percentage than our shop (15 per cent) and our telephone business (ten per cent).

    "This sounds all well and dandy but you still need to turnover at least 600 a race to make it pay as the exes are high."

    He adds: "When we arrived all the live money had appeared to have gone years ago and the business left was purely recreational. It's not unusual for customers to back three or four horses a race and not necessarily the ones at the top of the market, which was a refreshing change to the off-course market."

    While substantial ‘live’ money on course is a rarity these days, there was an instance in December when a punter went down the line backing a horse who had shown nothing whatsoever in seven starts since being claimed.

    Head says: "I laid 500 each-way at 14-1 but I didn't like the look of it as there was a guy going down the line having it on everywhere so I laid it back on the machine, which is unusual for me.

    "I've heard they took 50,000 out of the ring, which wouldn't surprise me, but that's a rarity. I could probably count the number of 1,000 bets I've taken on two hands, but I don't mind that. Smaller fish are sweet, and I'm happy to go home with a profit."

    Head is in no doubt about where the blame lies for the decline of the on-course market.

    He says: "What's really rocked the boat in this industry is the exchanges. It's made margins really tight on horseracing and I can't believe they were ever legalised. Everyone is trying to compete with a zero-rated product, with no margins.

    "Also, bookmakers don't hedge with one another these days. Some will take a bet and then lay it back on the machine at a slightly better price. Hedging on the machine rather than with another bookmaker is bad for the game. It should stay in the ring."

    Besides a fundamental belief that the exchanges should be taxed differently in order to help level the playing field, Head also believes that at many meetings there are too many bookmakers. To help address this he suggests bookmakers should not be allowed multiple pitches in one area, even though this would affect him adversely as he has two pitches here, like Dennis, and at some meetings he may have three in the ring or on the rails.

    He has further concerns about his ageing clientele and the growth of the cashless society, and while he has few regrets about going into on-course bookmaking he is cautious about the future.

    He says: "I love the racecourse life and I'm glad we came into the business, but I wouldn't be thinking of expanding. If anything I'd be cutting down slightly and being a little more selective about where I go."

    For the record, on this particular day Dennis had four losing races out of seven but showed a profit of just short of 3,188, before expenses, on his 14,023 turnover.

    Head also had four losing races, and much of his profit disappeared in the last, when he was paying out to a long queue of small-stakes each-way punters on a 16-1 winner and a 66-1 second while others were packing up. Such a result would have been a good winner for old-style bookmakers, but not for Goodwin Racing.

    Head says: "You can tell who lays the outsiders! I've lost a grand on the last race. Trade was well above average today but results didn’t fall our way and we made only 435 on a turnover of 9,204, which would mean a small loss after exes."
    Interesting read but, to be honest, it's difficult to read most of these types of things without getting a bit fed up of hearing the bookies mourning the good old days when they could make money hand over fist (and before we start wiping our eyes for their sad fate, it might be worth remembering that it was our money that the bastards are waxing lyrical over ).

    I know our own QC likes to reminisce about when punting was punting but, like anything else, things change and we move on. It's like hearing the hangman whining about how how great it was in the old days before some bastard scrapped the death-penalty. They can never put Betfair or mobile technology back in the box so move on and stop fucking whinging. Just like the people who lost their jobs at the steel factory or the car factory or the coal mine or Woolworths or Thomas Cook, or a thousand other places. Sorry that you can't fleece us as much as you used to do. What a shame. Now fuck off!

    So, after saying all that, what do you think a racecourse will look like in ten years time. The future can't be the Tote surely? There has to be something to replace on course bookies if they do all disappear? Maybe those who don't have online accounts can queue up at betting terminals and use their cards to chose a bookmaker to place a bet with and the card is automatically credited with any winnings? Or maybe you are given a "gambling card" when you go through the gate and you load it with cash and use that to place bets on betting terminals? Might actually be an improvement on queuing in the rain for some miserable twat in a raincoat to begrudgingly throw a couple of 50 notes at you or, even worse, having a winner in the last race to find that the bookie that you placed the bet with has packed up and fucked off.
    Last edited by ONEDUNME; 07-01-2020 at 19:43.

  13. #4393
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    The days of Sean Graham (senior) laying seven and a half grand to five followed by six pounds to four and saying "Good Luck Sir" to the second punter are long gone.

    The electronic boards ruined the ring for me - The excitement of a rush as a lad with fistfuls of notes that now look like some giant monstrosities - dashed down the line - Tictac men with white gloves flailing - Chalk being wiped - Feckin great - No colour now - Terminals and phones will win out eventually.

  14. #4394
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    The days of Sean Graham (senior) laying seven and a half grand to five followed by six pounds to four and saying "Good Luck Sir" to the second punter are long gone.

    The electronic boards ruined the ring for me - The excitement of a rush as a lad with fistfuls of notes that now look like some giant monstrosities - dashed down the line - Tictac men with white gloves flailing - Chalk being wiped - Feckin great - No colour now - Terminals and phones will win out eventually.

    No wonder he was able to lay those bets they were bettin* to a huge overround.. they should get rid of all the bookies (unless they will lay bets to a certain amount) and just use betfair sp.

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    If we can just accept that there are knowledgable punters on here that understand odds.

    I would go to the likes of Leopardstown in eighties and nineties - a load of lads that were making good money
    Giving it a lash - and I can guarantee you that 98 percent of people at the races would not have a clue about over rounds - and I include lads that bet in thousands - when a thousand was a thousand.

    I would guess that QC would not have met ten shop punters in his life that could calculate a race (leaving out those sharp lads he refers to now).

    No wonder the bookies were coining it - And with all the education and advances since - I would say punters are even thicker now - particularly the new young 'E' generation - who cannot add / count / multiply or even think.

    The Irish economy is apparently the envy of Europe - But everybody is skint - huge numbers on minimum wage - construction workers who used to fuel a lot of the activity in the ring on course have not got the same disposable income either - If there is a crowd at the races now it is more for the drinking than the gambling - and most of the bets will be done on the phone in the bar by the new generation - Powers are the sharpest of all - so just watch their ads to see where they know the dosh is for them ( the ads that QC sees as pointless - and I can understand why) but a billion pound biz tells its own tale.

    The ring will be around for a while I am sure but only the biggest will survive.

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    Bloody hell lads ! Mrs Crossett and I go out for a few hours and you lot take advantage
    Seriously though, good stuff. I enjoyed reading it all when i got home.

    There are so many points i'd like to make but you all know me. I start on one and then digress and leave out loads of other stuff i was going to say.

    I do agree with ONEDUNME in that i like to reminisce. But then again, dont we all ? But i just dont do that with racing alone. We were out last night for a bloody big steak and we were reminiscing about restaurants we used to go to and pubs we used to drink in that are no longer there or are now Prosecco bars
    The old days of bookmaking are long gone and will NEVER return. That is fact ! Its now all about numbers and slots and lotteries and dont let anybody tell you any different.

    And on course yesteryear was a good living and a good life. Thats why i contemplated getting into it. But you couldnt pay me to do it these days. Am i not doing something similar every day in the comfort of my own home and without the massive exes !?

    And Clancy is absolutely spot on about punters not knowing about odds and bets. Classic case is my old man who is 88 this year and has been betting since he was 14. He does his Yankee's and Round Robins etc but STILL does not know how to work them out. I get a call every now and again when he gets one up and asking me to work it out for him. But he's not alone, there are plenty more out there.
    I wouldnt even try and explain percentages, over rounds, going 2% or 3% a runner etc etc because it would be a complete waste of my breath But again, he is not alone. Your average punter would be totally oblivious to all that and as Clancy says, even those who have a wedge on a horse wouldnt know and they wouldnt have a clue if the bookies were betting to 112%, 122% or even 142% !!
    True, there are those who come on this thread and know what they are talking about regarding betting, odds etc but to be honest, i read very few other threads on here now.

    And finally, going back to ONEDUNME's post about things changing and having to move on. I cant think of anyone who has moved on ore than me. I still havent had a bet this year and it was only on Monday that i said to Mrs Crossett, and not for the first time, that it wouldnt bother me if i never had another bet again ! I know i will, but at the same time, its not the be all and end all. I would still be spending between eight and ten hours every day doing my thing but there wouldnt be a bet at the end of it.
    But there are still quite a few horses on my radar and a bet will come.

    Have a good day all, and same again tonight please.

  17. #4397
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    Could I ask the Forum Moderator to please delete the account of the poster that goes by the name of: QC

    He is clearly in flagrant breach of the Forum ethos which is of course:

    LETSBET

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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    Could I ask the Forum Moderator to please delete the account of the poster that goes by the name of: QC

    He is clearly in flagrant breach of the Forum ethos which is of course:

    LETSBET


    I said it wouldnt bother me, not i wouldnt ever again.

    But maybe i would qualify by some other means, i'm sure i could find a loophole

    I think if you had my agenda each day, you'd maybe think different. So far today ---

    6-30 - 8.00 Checking the prices of certain races and then watching yesterdays races and a couple from Saturday over again.

    10.45 until now - Watched two more races from Saturday, jotted down the three races for tomorrow that i am doing and then starting on the North Yorkshire National, the Catterick 2.40 (I cant believe Sam England is running Manwell).
    That race is now done so its a quick sarnie and then onto the Catterick 3.45 and then the Leicester 3.20 and watching all of todays racing while doing them. Then its checking the early prices as they come out and then the fun starts. This laptop will be on until around 6.00 and then its tea and then back on again for more fun and games until around 9.00. Hopefully that will be the end of the day but it does drag on sometimes.

    And you want to deprive me of my bit of craic on here !!

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    What are your criteria for selecting which races to study? Thanks.

  20. #4400
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    What are your criteria for selecting which races to study? Thanks.
    Handicaps between seven and twelve runners but ideally eight or nine. I much prefer the low grade stuff and thats why i much prefer midweek meetings to Saturdays. If it was a day where Ascot, Sandown, Newton Abbot and Sedgefield were on, i know which two meetings i'd be getting stuck into. I still occasionally do races from the bigger meetings but they are far more competitive and therefore harder to suss.

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