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Thread: Rambling and Gambling

  1. #6141
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    QC - The maestro have a few running tomorrow. I am keeping an eye on that ballycrystal i doubt if tomorrow will be its day tho. its over 200 days since the maestro had a winner over jumps.

    that my rennaisance looks very well handicapped now. hard to see it not in the first 3 in this race.

  2. #6142
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    QC - The maestro have a few running tomorrow. I am keeping an eye on that ballycrystal i doubt if tomorrow will be its day tho. its over 200 days since the maestro had a winner over jumps.

    that my rennaisance looks very well handicapped now. hard to see it not in the first 3 in this race.


    11/1 into 9/1 with Hills already, 182 traded on Betfair at 11 already and money lined up for it.
    The copy and pasters are getting their job done for them.


  3. #6143
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    [/B]11/1 into 9/1 with Hills already, 182 traded on Betfair at 11 already and money lined up for it.
    The copy and pasters are getting their job done for them.

    just goes to show hills are clueless. but that betfair you just cant believe no-one laid that at 11/1 unless someone is backing it with themselves!

  4. #6144
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    just goes to show hills are clueless. but that betfair you just cant believe no-one laid that at 11/1 unless someone is backing it with themselves!
    The England's wont be happy if they dont get their price. If it keeps on getting backed they might well pull it out.

    I'm going thru Saturdays, there are a couple of interesting entries.

  5. #6145
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    For those who like comparing hurdle marks with flat ones, there is one to ponder over tomorrow. In the 5.15 race at Sedgefield, The Navigator runs off a mark of 88 whereas his flat mark is now 80. The horse has been fairly consistent on the flat since the resumption of racing and won at Catterick in August. Mick Fitz used to (and probably still does) bang on about how he works on a 45lb difference between flat and hurdle ratings. Well this one is 8 !!!!!
    And the good kid on top takes another 3lb off !!

    This HAS to go well.

  6. 1 Thanks from:
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  7. #6146
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    And for those who kept the faith after i said he would get a win soon, Card High wins easily after a couple of big priced places recently. It touched 10's this morning. But no, i didnt back it, too tricky a race for me but the missus had a fiver each way.

  8. #6147
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    There are not many times that i give myself a ticking off for missing one but i have done today. Its part and parcel of the game to let one slip by but i've gone back to what i wrote about Card High in a post on the 2nd of July and i've looked at what he was up against that day. Nearly every sodding runner in that race has won since.
    I'm almost tempted to let Mrs Crossett give me a good kicking !!

    Here is the post -

    HAMILTON 6.20

    NAKEETA - Didnt run too badly on his reappearence at Ponty last time out and didnt get the clearest of runs at crucial times. He has been dropped 3lb since that run and is now 26lb lower than his last win which came in the 2017 Ebor at York. A few months later he was an excellent fifth in the Melbourne Cup behind Joseph O'Briens Rekindling. He is down 20lb since this time last year and drops into class 5 company for the first time since winning over this course in September 2014. Conditions will suit and this extra furlong will be ideal.

    MULTELLIE - He was well beaten on his all weather return at Newcastle four weeks ago. He was a winner over hurdles at Carlisle in February and does seem to have a liking for a stiff track. He has won twice round Carlisle and three times here at Hamilton and has also won at Ponty. He was a winner here off a mark of 74 last September and my only niggling doubt is this mark of 77.

    EURO IMPLOSION - A well beaten third at Thirsk on his reappearence run which was his first outing since being tailed at York in October. He won three times last summer starting off on a mark of 62 and he now finds himself on 75. The ground wont be a problem and the trip is probably ok but the mark of 75 is a concern to me.


    CHIEF CRAFTSMAN - This is his first run since July 2017 although he was down to run at Haydock last week but was pulled out because of the fast ground. He started life with Luca Cumani but left that trainer in Nnovember 2017 to join Paul Nicholls but has joined Tim Easterby this year having never run for Nicholls. The trip shouldnt be a problem and this slower ground is probably more to his liking but we dont know what to expect after three years off. Definitely one to keep an eye on.

    VENTURA DRAGON - He wears first time cheekpieces on his first run for Kevin Ryan after leaving Oliver Sherwood. He was down to run at Thirsk two weeks ago but apparently the good ground wasnt to his liking. He hasnt got his head in front since winning at Donny in 2018 off a mark of 76. He races off a 4lb lower mark today on 72 and trip and ground will be ok.

    COUNTRY FAIR - Had two hurdles outings in Jan/Feb time and was pulled up in both. He had joined Jim Goldie in 2018 having raced in France in his early days for David Smaga. He won for that trainer on the all weather at Chantilly back in 2017 over a staying trip of 14f but has to prove he has retained any ability.

    KENSINGTON ART - He has been disappointing in two recent outings and hasnt really shown a great deal since winning twice last summer. He is still 8lb higher than his last turf win and although he does stay further than this, he may want the ground a bit quicker.

    AUXILIARY - Another that was well beaten on his comeback run but not one to write off just yet. He won a decent enough handicap at York last year off the same mark as today. He has won round Hamilton before and with conditions in his favour he is one who can defy his odds.

    NATALEENA - A winner at Redcar last time out and up 2lb for her troubles. This is a much better race and although she stays well and has won over further, i do have my concerns with her in the ground and in this better company.

    SIOUX FRONTIER - He has been off the track since February and returns to a track where he won last season. He actually won twice last season but they were both on fast ground. He can go in this sort of ground though and was a winner here over shorter on soft in 2018. Races here off a 2lb lower mark than his last win.

    CARD HIGH - I've got my eye on this one !!!!! I'm not expecting him to win today (i bloody well hope not) but i've been watching him closely in his last two runs and although he has been well beaten, that doesnt tell the full story. He is now down to his lowest mark for over five years and come September/October time i reckon dear old Wilf will be lining a nice little race up.

    SOCIOLOGIST - He ran ok when fourth at Thirsk at the beginning of last week but is 0/9 on the flat on turf. Conditions will probably suit. His only win came on the all weather off an 11lb higher mark but he does have a nasty habit of finishing second.

    And there you have it. Any fancies ?? I know which one i like !


    There's always tomorrow

  9. #6148
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    Crash helmet 7.45 noticed it won 28 sept 2018

  10. #6149
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    Quote Originally Posted by slim View Post
    Crash helmet 7.45 noticed it won 28 sept 2018
    Hello mate and thanks for that. But the missus is already on. It was one i put up as one to follow when i compiled a list back during the lockdown. She backed Sir Mickys first winner and has it in an each way double with this one. Excuse the pun but it has a bit of a slim chance of coming up but you never know.

    The cakes are on her tomorrow if it does.

    Cheers.

  11. #6150
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    The king of Sir Mickys stable, Cornerstone Lad is entered up at Redcar on Saturday. He is rated just 71 on the flat compared to his mark of 159 over hurdles. I have to say that i dont believe he is a 159 horse but thats where they have put him.
    Anyway, this will be his first outing since pulling up in the Champion Hurdle when something was amiss. I'm not expecting that much from him to be honest because every man and his dog knows where he is going and that is to try and win the Fighting Fifth for the second year running. He will never win a Champion Hurdle and this race will be his "Champion".

  12. #6151
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    Quote Originally Posted by slim View Post
    Crash helmet 7.45 noticed it won 28 sept 2018

    Here is what the joker sorry trainer said this morning.......
    19.45 Crash Helmet "Crash Helmet has been working nicely at home lately. He is on a competitive mark and handles all-weather surfaces very well so that's why we left him off in the summer with an autumn/winter campaign in mind. Could run very well at a big price."

    Take the hint, Mickey never has an outside jock up when they are trying..

    Last 12 months

    Jockeys Rides Wins Places Win prize Strike rate P/L (1 stake)
    Emma Smith-Chaston 43 7 14 28,202 16.28% 3.25
    Joe Colliver 37 5 6 27,552 13.51% -9.30
    Billy Garritty 40 4 4 19,950 10% -17.09
    G Lee 44 3 9 11,547 6.82% -29.00
    Miss Becky Smith 42 3 7 11,975 7.14% -17.50
    Last edited by the dope; 28-09-2020 at 23:37.
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

  13. #6152
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    Quote Originally Posted by the dope View Post
    Here is what the joker sorry trainer said this morning.......
    19.45 Crash Helmet "Crash Helmet has been working nicely at home lately. He is on a competitive mark and handles all-weather surfaces very well so that's why we left him off in the summer with an autumn/winter campaign in mind. Could run very well at a big price."

    Take the hint, Mickey never has an outside jock up when they are trying..

    Last 12 months

    Jockeys Rides Wins Places Win prize Strike rate P/L (1 stake)
    Emma Smith-Chaston 43 7 14 28,202 16.28% 3.25
    Joe Colliver 37 5 6 27,552 13.51% -9.30
    Billy Garritty 40 4 4 19,950 10% -17.09
    G Lee 44 3 9 11,547 6.82% -29.00
    Miss Becky Smith 42 3 7 11,975 7.14% -17.50
    Joker ?!?!

    I did say to the missus that the horse would probably need the run bearing in mind that he's been off since Feb. But she didnt listen, she never does. But Sir Micky will win races with the horse, its just a case of timing it right.

  14. #6153
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    Quote Originally Posted by the dope View Post
    Here is what the joker sorry trainer said this morning.......
    19.45 Crash Helmet "Crash Helmet has been working nicely at home lately. He is on a competitive mark and handles all-weather surfaces very well so that's why we left him off in the summer with an autumn/winter campaign in mind. Could run very well at a big price."

    Take the hint, Mickey never has an outside jock up when they are trying..

    Last 12 months

    Jockeys Rides Wins Places Win prize Strike rate P/L (1 stake)
    Emma Smith-Chaston 43 7 14 28,202 16.28% 3.25
    Joe Colliver 37 5 6 27,552 13.51% -9.30
    Billy Garritty 40 4 4 19,950 10% -17.09
    G Lee 44 3 9 11,547 6.82% -29.00
    Miss Becky Smith 42 3 7 11,975 7.14% -17.50
    One cup of tea and one cup of coffee later, i am fully awake now

    I know you like your stats mate but they just bore the pants off me. But as i always say, each to their own. I use my five pointers that i apply with every race i do and even though i say it myself, it works very well for me. I've mentioned them many times before on here and i never stray from them. For me, it is the only way.
    But i must pick up on the point i have highlighted about Sir Micky not using outside jockeys when they are "trying". Dragons Will Rise was well backed and who rode that ????????
    I think you will find it was Robert Havlin.
    Unless he was appointed stable jockey late yesterday afternoon, i reckon you will find he is an "outside" jockey.

  15. #6154
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    Apparently William Hill are in takeover talks with some American company who are likely to only want their US interests and will be wanting to ditch the UK bookmaking bit ASAP and Baldy Fred is in the running as a possible buyer. That would be bad news for me because it cuts down the number of bookies I can use by one if it happens

    I think he ruined the Tote but I've allways found Betfred to be pretty decent to be honest. Hills have been steady enough but one fewer bookie is one fewer option for a better price.

  16. #6155
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    Has anyone mentioned Ben Jones on here? Looks a decent jock to my untrained eyes

  17. #6156
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    Has anyone mentioned Ben Jones on here? Looks a decent jock to my untrained eyes
    Yes, when he won the Hennessy on De Rasher Counter

  18. #6157
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    QC - The maestro have a few running tomorrow. I am keeping an eye on that ballycrystal i doubt if tomorrow will be its day tho. its over 200 days since the maestro had a winner over jumps.

    that my rennaisance looks very well handicapped now. hard to see it not in the first 3 in this race.
    Another one that slips by. I hope you were on it. It was always going to return to form but the question was when.

    Scoop The Pot got as close, and ran as well as he has done for a long time. The trip was on the short side so a 3m+ hurdle race looks an obvious target. I have a feeling they will keep him away from the fences because he just hits too many.

  19. #6158
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    Yes, when he won the Hennessy on De Rasher Counter

    Must admit he's not one I've ever taken any notice of but I noticed his name kept cropping up time and again on horses shortening on oddschecker (no idea if he rides for stables/owners particularly renowned for backing their horses big) so I had a look at his stats and they weren't particularly impressive in a straight profit and loss sense but it did lead to me watching his rides more than I would have before and I like him. Just wondered if anyone had any particular views on him from a betting point of view (e.g. in the same way one might have on a certain G Lee for example )

  20. #6159
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    Another one that slips by. I hope you were on it. It was always going to return to form but the question was when.

    Scoop The Pot got as close, and ran as well as he has done for a long time. The trip was on the short side so a 3m+ hurdle race looks an obvious target. I have a feeling they will keep him away from the fences because he just hits too many.
    yes i was at 9/1. that ballycrystal ran too well.

  21. #6160
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    https://www.racingpost.com/news/late...e-of-53/452512

    very young.

    I backed the fellow the year he won gold cup.

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