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Thread: Rambling and Gambling

  1. #6101
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    I met a man in LIDL this morning - senior citizen - gentleman - retired civil servant.


    Does a bet every day - fifty cent Lucky 15 - maybe a fiver on a tip - I put on his bets when he was cocooned.


    His first words would always be: Did you hear anything.


    We all like a whisper of info.


    Today he said: Did you see that case - Total disgrace that fella is - should lose his licence.


    I don’t think he is alone in that opinion.


    I love a stroke snd am a Chancy Clancy - But even for me this has a bad taste - Not the hero status of the Gay Future or Yellow Sam.


    Don’t know why exactly but it feels like theft - and not from the bookies - treating punters with total contempt - particularly that run on the flat I think.


    It gives me the same feeling as when a CEO sells his shares a week before the company goes bust.


    I don’t see Ronan as a clever operator in this case.


    Rotten is the word for me.

  2. #6102
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    Cases like this stand out and it seems to me that there are almost as many who say "Good on him" as there are who say that he want's stringing up.

    I know I've found myself saying both of those things and, to be perfectly honest, I'm not sure where the boundary is between "cheating" and trying to give your horse a chance to actually win a race.

    The whole handicap system is based on the fact that you need your horse to be carrying the right amount of lead in the saddle to enable it to win a race. Every horse in training could be weighted down to ever stop it from winning a handicap again no matter how good it is. So what are you supposed to do if you're a trainer? We should all ask ourselves what we would do. Would we train it up to its peak for every race and wait for the handcapper to do us a favour (we all know they come down the weights a lot slower than they are usually put up). Or do we run it in a race tomorrow knowing that the ground may not suit and knowing that it's a bit further than it would normally like on the assumption that the handicapper might look kindly on us and drop us a couple of pounds so that we actually have a chance of winning a race.

    That's the problem. Handicap racing forces people to get as much weight off their horses as they possibly can. It should be the handcapper's job to say "you know what, I'm ignoring that run matey because I know as well as you do that it was nowhere near a reflection of your horse's true ability. If they aren't allowed to do that under their rules then the rules should be changed.

    I'm not sticking up for the trainer for Saturday's example but what I'm saying is, in a system that encourages underperforming for a longer term gain, where is the line between "shrewd trainer" and "cheating bastard"?

    I'm sure I don't know.

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  4. #6103
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    I think Clancy is looking for a reply from me but i cant really fathom why. Is it because i put it up and have been banging on about it since March 25th ? The first thing to ask is why have i been banging on about it. There are quite a few reasons really but i'll mention two of them. A) The form was there in the book for the horse to win and B) i know how the trainer operates !
    Yes, the form was there. Although some of these so called form "experts" still cant see it even three days after the race. And that is because they are NOT "experts". They have a job in racing and are hyped up so much it beggars belief and are referred to as "experts" And it is just nonsense. They are people who look at some of the form and even then dont really know what they are looking for. If they did, they would have known about it and then told the world and this thing would have opened up at 5/2.
    Its knowing how the trainer operates and delving far enough back to see what this horse has achieved lifetime rather than its last few runs. I'm trying not to blow my own trumpet here but this is what i wrote on this thread on March 25th.
    "So Ddreal Deal finishes twelfth and goes off at 16/1. Well done if you managed to get the 25's and laid it back shorter and locked yourself in a profit. But if you backed it at 4/1, or any single figure price for that matter, i would seriously consider packing this game in. There is never a day that goes by without punters jumping on the bandwagon only to find out that it is on its way to the scrapyard and they have done their money.
    I would love to have been a fly on the wall in the Ronan McNally yard yesterday after seeing their horse plunge from 25's into 4's. Now i'm not saying that this is what happened but the fact is that it does happen. Did they say just let it run and see what happens ? Or did they consider pulling it out ? Or was it a case of them saying "the twats have nicked our price and i'm gonna make sure they do their dough before instructing his jockey to finish nearer last than first ?
    As i said, that might just be me being mischievous. But then again, i have been at the end of a phone line when a trainer has rung up and asked where the money for his horse had come from. I can think of two occasions off the top of my head and there may be others. And on both of those occasions the horses were soon declared non runners.
    The facts are that this horse had been beaten anywhere between 34L and 75L in his previous runs under rules and all at big prices. So when you see it as low as 4/1 it does set alarm bells ringing. As it turns out, it looked to be having a private battle for last place before somehow managing to get past a few of them.
    But its day will come and hopefully some of you will be on. It finished second in a good ground 3m point at Ballindenisk last May so the 2m on soft at Clonmel yesterday would hardly seem ideal. But when racing resumes and the ground quickens up a bit, i would imagine the stable looking for a little race somewhere come summer time. It more than possible that he will bring it this side of the water and i might get involved myself.

    Its in the book


    That form at Ballindenisk is working out very well and more winners from that race will follow. Now here's what Ronan said yesterday.
    "McNally said he paid €50,000 for Dreal Deal and the most he had ever spent on a horse before that was €15,000. The trainer said: "It was an abysmal race, let's be honest about it. If you go back through my horse's form, he was second in a four-year-old maiden point at Ballindenisk. If he had won that he would have been sold for about €150,000 and he would have won that race had he jumped the last better".

    Yes, we know that it has shown nothing since but thats how these small yards operate. I am not sticking up for him, far from it, but the way the finances are in racing these days, especially over here, you can see why they do it. Some punters will call it a disgrace, some will say he should be warned off. It looked blatant to many and i can obviously see their point. But then again, if they had bothered to go thru the form and got to learn how he, and others like him, operate, they would have known that the day was coming.
    I like to think that i have put up more than my fair share of big priced winners on here and i do it for a bit of fun. If it sticks an extra few quid/euros in the lads pockets i am more than happy. But if you look at the ones i put up, you will see a pattern. I'll just go thru a few of them from this year. We had Drums Of War which was backed in from 20's to 14/1. Then there was Cryogenics which collapsed from 33/1 down to 7/1. We had Frankelio which went from 33's into an unbelievable 4/1. And now we've had Dreal Deal which has gone from 20/1 into 6/4. And now look at the trainers of these horses. Chris Grant, Kenny Johnson, Micky Hammond and Ronan. They are not exactly in the top bracket of trainers are they ?! Never the less, they are MORE than capable of doing the job. Or doing A job as it turns out. This is where you should be looking for future winners, these type of trainers. I can think of nothing more boring and mindnumbing than going thru horses trained by the Gosdens, O'Briens, Hendersons and Nicholls etc etc of this world. Yes you will get plenty of 6/4 and 11/10 and 4/5 winners but what is the point of that ?????????????
    Before i go any further, can i refer back to the punters who are saying he should be warned off, suspended or whatever. Put 100 of them in a room today and later on i will go into that room and tell them that i have a horse for tomorrow that WILL win and it will open up a big price and they better get on early. How many of those 100 will back it ?????????????????????????????????????
    We all know the answer !!! Thats punters for you.

    Lets go back to gambles though. Only the naive would deny that they happen every day. There is NEVER day goes by when a touch hasnt been landed. And how many times in our betting years have we been on the wrong end of those gambles ? We've had a bet and thought we were on a good thing and some nag has flew by and beat us. And we hear later that there was plenty of money late on for it and the stable were very confident. But you look at the form and have to go back a long way to find anything worthwhile in its formlines.
    That is racing ! It happens !
    And having been in the game for a long time now, i have seen and heard some devious stunts pulled. And of course, most by the smaller trainer. But others do it as well. And what would you class as "rotten" or "devious" or as putting the punters away ? This example is one of many reasons that i have when i say just ignore trainer quotes. They are in the game for themselves and their owners. I would imagine that "F*** The Punters" is their motto. At least Ronan didnt come out and say anything before the race.
    Many years ago i took a call from a trainer who had three runners at a meeting that day. The "normal" punters went thru to the telephonists but trainers and some big VIP's came thru to the trading desk. I'll have to obviously keep names out of this. The trainer asked me the price of one of the horses. I told the trainer 6/1. The trainer asked for a grand on it. Now i knew, although i did check when i put the phone down, that the normal bet for this person was ALWAYS between 300 and 500. It had NEVER gone above that. So that told me a story straight away. So later on, this trainer is on TV being interviewed before racing and is asked about the three horses. Now the horse concerned was the second of this trainers runners that day. The trainer was asked which was the best of the three that day. The reply was the first one !!!

    The trainer then went on to say about the second one "It will definitely need the run and we are looking to step it up in trip in future but there are no suitable races around at the moment so he'll run here and it will blow some of the cobwebs away" !!
    And yes, of course the horse won, but you all knew that was coning
    Now thats what i call blatant !!!!! How many punters would have been put off by that ? Some would call that cheating.
    But the point of this story is that this was no small trainer trying to get by and keep his yard going and stay in business. This trainer has trained the winner of the Grand National !.

    This is racing. It happens. Wherever there is money involved, there will always be some sort of skullduggery, for want of a better word. I dont condone it but it has always been in racing and always will be.

    One last point before i go. The Irish head of handicapping said that the run of Dreal Deal was at least two stone better than it had shown before. And it won the race in an absolute canter. And yet the horse was only raised 19lb !!??!!


    Have a good day all, i have a plethora of small trainers to delve into.
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 22-09-2020 at 10:26.

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  6. #6104
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    We'll all find something else to whinge about soon and then we can move away from this. But Clancy my old mate , let me ask you a question.
    You are in Lidl (which i dont believe for starters because you seem a Waitrose and Harrods type person to me ) and the old bloke says to you "Did you hear anything" ?
    You then say, "Yes, i've heard Dreal Deal is going in today but get on early because the price will collapse".
    When he sees you the next day, does he say to you either a) "Total disgrace that fella is - should lose his licence" or does he say b) "Nice one mate, thanks for that, if you get any more like that let me know".

    I'll let you and the rest of the lads on here decide which one

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  8. #6105
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    And as i sais earlier, if my studying had to revolve around the like of Gosden, O'brien, Appleby etc etc, i would consider taking up Origami.
    The trainers today i was most interested in were Spittin Mick, Tina Jackson, Ruth Carr and Mick Appleby and a couple of others. Not a Godolphin, Coolmore or Khaled Abdulla horse in sight.

  9. #6106
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    Time to move on. But the need to delve back into the form and not just a horses past couple of runs will always be a necessity. And so will knowing how a trainer operates.
    So there is a horse on Saturday which has not got within 15L of the winner in any of its last eight races but will go to the races with a big chance if they decide to run it. It loves the track, the trip and ground will be ideal and it is down to its lowest mark since it was successful over this Saturdays course and distance.

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  11. #6107
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    OKSANA surely QC?

  12. #6108
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    This game has a habit of taking the piss whilst kicking you in the nuts at the same time. I told Mrs Crossett to back Athmad and she got some 14's. I told you about the trainers i was watching closely today and Ruth Carr was one of them. And what got up to beat us ?? One trained by Spittin Mick !!!! , one of the other trainers i was watching.

  13. #6109
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    Some of you may have sussed that the Tina Jackson horse i was watching today was Jamil seeing as it was her only runner of the day.
    More place money landed for the good lady with a 20/1 third.

  14. #6110
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yddraig View Post
    OKSANA surely QC?

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  16. #6111
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    Anyone else get an email from betfair saying that they were changing there rewards!(commission I presume!) from oct 1st?

  17. #6112
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    Anyone else get an email from betfair saying that they were changing there rewards!(commission I presume!) from oct 1st?
    Nope. I had one a while ago giving me 3 or 4 options on my account. The one I went for was to reduce my commission but not have access to any more promotional offers. I can't remember what the others were

  18. #6113
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    I see Shergar is entered Friday - Saturday - Monday.

  19. #6114
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    I see Shergar is entered Friday - Saturday - Monday.
    You've lost me here mate. I know Dreal Deal is entered at Roscommon on Monday but my head is full of a thousand horses and i dont know which one you are on about

  20. #6115
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    I see Shergar is entered Friday - Saturday - Monday.
    Got it. I think we are talking Easy Cash D'Alex here. The smokescreen from Saturday. I couldnt and still cant find anything to recommend this one and i would be surprised if anyone else could. And thats why i know it was a smokescreen.

  21. #6116
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    Nah - I was talking about DD.

    In other news I hear that believers in Karma are totally disillusioned after that young lad managed to stay in the saddle at the first.

  22. #6117
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    Quote Originally Posted by clancy View Post
    Nah - I was talking about DD.

    In other news I hear that believers in Karma are totally disillusioned after that young lad managed to stay in the saddle at the first.
    Bloody hell Clancy, i think you need to take a chill pill and let it go. You were going to back it all along and then didnt because you missed the price. Now you are taking a moral stance and venting your anger or frustration or whatever it is. Plenty of things like this have happened in the past and will occur again in days or weeks or months to come. Racing has never been straight and never will be and if it bothers you that much perhaps you should give it up. There have no doubt been many occasions i/we have been done over by a "job" but i've never gone on like this. Its horse racing and it happens !

  23. #6118
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    Great reply Q C. As far as I am concerned it water under the bridge. Thanks for all your informative Posts.

  24. #6119
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quixall Crossett View Post
    Bloody hell Clancy, i think you need to take a chill pill and let it go. You were going to back it all along and then didnt because you missed the price. Now you are taking a moral stance and venting your anger or frustration or whatever it is. Plenty of things like this have happened in the past and will occur again in days or weeks or months to come. Racing has never been straight and never will be and if it bothers you that much perhaps you should give it up. There have no doubt been many occasions i/we have been done over by a "job" but i've never gone on like this. Its horse racing and it happens !
    Its Gambling lads as my old man used to say, "them horses would tame lions"
    horse racing is a tax on the stupid.

  25. #6120
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    anyone know what Barry dennis is up to these days? i don't see him on tv anymore - is he alive or dead?

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