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Thread: Financial Markets Discussion

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    Financial Markets Discussion

    as per suggestion from flyingbolt..set up this thread to see how it goes

    flyingbolt asked the following..

    "My first question for Daytrader on the subject would be what is the best online option for Irish people to trade shares or financials? Excessive fees and charges is what stops me from getting involved. I've heard of Robinhood.com with its zero charges but that's only for US-based people afaik."


    the best way for a newbie to start is with a spreadbetting account..the main reason is that when people start they do not have a clue so it is crucial to keep the risk very very small..otherwise money will be lost very quickly

    there are numereous sb companies..easily found by google search..most in UK..safest is IG Markets..but their spreads are very wide on stocks..ok for forex and main indices like DOW,FTSE and DAX

    overall..it all depends on what the person's objective is..if just wanting to have a quick gamble like on horses or football..then odds are u will lose all of your risk money..

    if someone want to try and make some money over a specific time period..whatever that is..then it becomes different..as some analysis must be done to identify low risk entry levels..and potential profit target levels

    like all gambling..for e.g...those who back horses and know the "form" will do better in the longrun than those who know nothing about form and just pick a horse by it's "name" - trading is no different..those who put the time and effort into learning what is required can make good money if they start with the correct mindset..that being..very low risk trades until the required experiences are gained..only then can higher risk be taken on for higher reward..trading is a numbers game..and u have to keep playing to keep the odds in your favour..which most never do as they usually blow their account with the first few trades

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    Thanks Daytrader. Looking forward to reading more.

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    Degenerate Member fridge's Avatar
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    Quick question if your bets are safe surely all or most little profit made will be consumed by fees etc

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    what do you mean safe..only guarantee is that you can lose..fees are only relevant if you are daytrading..i.e doing many trades during the day with smaller size than if u were holding for a few days..or more..this is why spreadbetting is difficult with stocks for daytrading..spreads are too wide and you are down a good bit the moment you open the trade

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    Degenerate Member fridge's Avatar
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    How can you make money at it then?

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    instead of me trying to explain..here is a very good section from an article in a FX magazine..most of it holds true for any market you decide to gamble with..there is an awful lot more to it than normal gambling..as the learning curve is long and hard..but if one has the right attitude and is willing to do the required work then making money (which involves losing money as well) can be as easy as picking apples off the ground..

    "If you haven’t spent twenty years working on the Foreign Exchange desk at Goldman Sachs or you don’t have a Harvard PhD in Finance then the chances are your journey into the world of trading Forex begins at the Google homepage. Luckily for us, we live in an age where much of our education can be found at the click of a mouse. In spite of our ‘online focused’ world however, not every page you click will have your best interests at heart. Google (or similar search engines) will instantly expose you to thousands of products and services ‘specifically designed’ to help you make profits from Forex. Just like they do for every ambitious hopeful, these virtual promises will seem extremely lucrative. Keep in mind, however, that most of these products or services are, at best, a waste of time, or at worst, an outright scam. Most of them are designed to simply part you from your money as quickly as possible. I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but better now than when your wallet and bank account have been drained of their contents. So, if most of the services on the internet are rubbish, where do you go for a good quality Forex trading education? More importantly, what concepts should you try to learn? The purpose of this book isn’t to promote any particular product or service, but to help you make good decisions that will bring you closer to achieving your overall goal of becoming a professional trader. The keys to trading consistently can be broken down into three main categories which, if mastered, will definitely place you among the leading contenders to find trading success. First of all, the biggest obstacle and reason why so many new traders fail is the psychological aspect of trading. This is the one thing that must be addressed before you can hope to trade other people’s money successfully. The bad news (sorry) is that these psychological issues are amplified when you are under the pressure of fund management. It’s always a good idea to find courses and publications that will help you recognise these problems and then provide solutions to them. Perhaps one of the very best coaches in this field is Mark Douglas, and specifically his book, Trading in the Zone. This book offers unique insights into how training your mind and your view of the markets can really help your perspective on issues such as losses and draw-downs. His courses do tend to be expensive, but the prices are justified by their excellent quality. As with everything in life, you get what you pay for and anything from Mark Douglas is worth a few extra pounds. In fact, it was only when I watched one of his seminar presentations that I really turned the corner in my own trading. If you don’t at least understand the concept of trading psychology and why it’s so important, you will never make it past the hurdles that it presents. What most struggling traders fail to realise is that deep down, at the very heart of all their trading woes, are issues of psychology. Have you ever wondered why you can’t seem to find a decent trading system or why you fear taking trades? Maybe you have questioned why you were doing so well and then all of a sudden your account was destroyed. Or perhaps you have concluded that trading is a mug’s game and consistent profits are impossible. If ever you have stumbled across any of these concerns, then you are amongst the majority. Many people don’t realise this, but all of these are common issues of trading psychology. You should make sure that you spend enough time grasping the concepts of trading and tuning your mindset to that of a professional. Don’t just pay lip service to this; really make a concerted effort to live and breathe it. The second most important concept in successful trading (and especially in trading other people’s funds) is the concept of prudent risk management. The notion of risk management is age-old and gets huge coverage in trading courses, seminars and books. Ninety-five percent of new traders, however, still blow up their accounts and lose all of their money. Why is this true? To give a direct answer, most people are either ignorant of the importance of risk management, or worse, they only pay lip service to its merits. In other words, people agree that it is a vital element of trading but continue trading contrary to that view point. The unfortunate thing about the scenario of traders going broke through bad risk management practices is that the concepts themselves are among the simplest in trading. When I was learning to trade, I never had a problem with risk management because I was always too worried about losing all of my hard earned money. Making my first million came second to that. Over the years, however, I have met and worked with many traders who have provided me with countless horror stories. By completely ignoring sound risk management principles, some traders have lost £250,000 (30% of their total equity) in a single trading session, and then made it back the following day! These kinds of rollercoasters are not uncommon and can even give the impression that the trader riding them is actually on top of his game. It may seem that the trader is some kind of maverick that can bend and break the rules and always come out on top. This perception is very dangerous; not only to us and our own trading, but also to potential clients. These are the people who will lose a lot in terms of money, credibility and future opportunities. It’s very important to think about how similar we all are as human beings, which brings us back to psychology and it being the biggest reason why ninety-five percent of people fail. The majority of people are unsuccessful because as human beings we tend to think and act in the same way. There is a trader,for example, who promotes himself by sharing his trading story. The story is a true and verified one; he turned $10,000 into almost $2 million in around three years. What is your initial reaction to that statement? Do you want to buy his course? Does he sound like the kind of trader you want to be? Shortly after this amazing feat, this trader started his own hedge fund which did nothing but lose money. Unsurprisingly, it was closed down after a couple of years. Why? Because the original feat of turning small amounts into huge amounts was mainly due to luck. In those days, he was risking far too much and getting rewarded for it, which is just as likely to be punished for it. After all, on the end of every single move there is a buyer and a seller; neither of whom has any real clue where the market is going next. Our initial reaction to these events is usually positive, but for a trained risk manager, it’s a much more disapproving tone. Generally, if a trader makes huge gains against small initial investments, they are usually considered lucky rather than talented. Furthermore, the only way to prove talent is through time, and unfortunately, there are not many traders (even the most famous ones) who can say they have not gone broke at least once. With that in mind, it’s absolutely critical that you focus your energy on learning and more importantly, implementing sound risk management principles. You don’t usually have to pay large sums of money to do this, as the internet is littered with articles and coaches that will happily train you in the art for very little cost, if any at all. Nonetheless, I did learn a massive lesson in how most novice investors and traders view risk management, and how that view point can cost people their entire life’s savings. I had been trading quite successfully for around six months, but still had no trading capital or income. I had, however, found a new website which allowed me to give my trading signals to other traders who just wanted to follow someone else who made a profit. The site was called www.GFsignals.com and still exists to this day. I must point out, however, that when I first started trading through them, they had far fewer traders and the competition was much lower. The website solicits a very simple process; each week I would input my trade calls and anyone who chose to subscribe could follow my trades. At the end of each week, the results would be posted and the top performers would stand out and get more subscribers. At the same time, the traders who performed at the poorest levels would fall to the bottom of the pile. At the peak of my trading signals service, I had over thirty subscribers each paying £150 for my trades, which meant that by the time the signals company had taken their cut, I was making over £3000 per month. This income allowed me to remain at home in front of the charts, which in turn allowed me to continue my education and focus on even more profitable strategies. This was crucial because despite the fact that I was making regular pips, the way I was doing it was totally unsustainable, and if combined with poor risk management, would almost certainly result in an utter disaster, as I was about to discover… I had been sending my signals for almost six months, and had been consistently one of the top performing traders. I was making a very consistent income from my subscriptions and this income even allowed me to open a very small live trading account from which to start my journey towards becoming a professional trader. One day, however, something happened that completely altered my perception of trading and more importantly, taught me how other traders are usually totally unprepared, and that risk management is a truly vital piece of the trading puzzle. My method at the time was based on higher timeframe trading and waiting for a currency pair to start moving away from either an overbought or an oversold situation. I would scan the pairs each night and then identify the pairs that were ready to start moving either up or down. I would then place my trades with a time-based stop loss covering the whole day and take profit levels the same, which meant that I would leave all positions open until the same time the next day and collect my pips. The principle at the time was that any losing trades would be covered by the winning trades because all trades that were entered had a slightly higher chance of going my way than against me. What I failed to realise was that the traders following me would soon decide to ramp up their leverage and risk exposure. You can probably see where this is going but at the time I was making regular consistent profits every day (at one point I was averaging around 600 pips per day) and the method seemed solid. So I continued, until one day it all came crashing down. I had several open positions and a few of them started to run against me, badly. I can’t remember the exact details now, but it was several hundred pips, which for me was actually OK because I wasn’t trading with any leverage. For one particular follower, however, it meant his whole account got wiped out. I still remember receiving the email and seeing that he had lost £50,000 (his life savings!). The ironic thing was that the positions turned around and actually ended the day in a profit, but because of his overleveraging he just didn’t have enough margin in his account to sustain the drawdown. This experience alone, however, was enough to make me stop dead in my tracks and re-evaluate exactly what I was doing. Yes, I was technically profitable, and yes, I made profits most days, but the fact was that if people were going to over-leverage and blow up accounts, it wasn’t worth it. From that day on, I stopped giving exact trading signals for people to simply follow. I also vowed never to do it again. If I was going to help people trade Forex, I would teach them how to do it for themselves. The other lesson I learned was that when it comes to your trading account, risk management is literally the difference between life and death. From my own trading experience (and particularly by meeting and working closely with other traders), I have come to the conclusion that the ones who tend to last the distance are the ones who don’t make particularly spectacular returns (due to their low risk).The ones who do take the risk, however, almost always get caught out and subsequently, end up broke. One other common theme that I have discovered is the differing attitudes to leverage between novice traders, educators, coaches and professionals. A successful professional will use no leverage at all (or at least a very tiny amount but never more than 2:1) whereas a novice trader will attempt things like risking 3% per trade and compounding their size. This only leads to huge losses and a shortened career. On the other hand, avoiding leverage completely tends to lead to smoother equity curves and more prolonged trading careers. In fact, if I were to sum up the whole risk management principle in one sentence it would be: “Avoid the use of leverage and always remember that there is no such thing as not enough profit.” The final piece of the puzzle is your trading system. This should be the least of your concerns (which is why it’s last on the list of things to learn). However, most people make it their number one priority, which again, is why most people fail.

    This concept is probably the least understood by the majority of novice traders. It goes a little something like this: a trader searches high and low for a system, finds one that looks brilliant, watches it for a few trading sessions and sees its brilliance in action. Then the trader begins trading it live, at which point its brilliance seemingly vanishes and it does nothing but lose. The system is then dumped and the whole cycle starts again. Sound familiar? That’s because it’s the same cycle that almost all novice traders go through. Why? Because what the trader is looking for can never be found. Most traders place the importance on the system and thus believe that in order to achieve success they must have a system that never loses or one that can achieve a ‘hit rate’ that is consistent and stable. At the very start of my career, I actually fell into this trap and probably wasted a solid year in this ridiculous, never ending cycle. As is often the case, however, I encountered people who had been stuck in the same infinite cycle long before I found trading and are still trapped to this day. One person who I met and worked quite closely with in my early days was literally obsessed with developing a method that didn’t lose. He became known within our group for his catch phrase, which he used when describing his system: “It never ever fails.” The peculiar thing about this guy was that when I first met him, his system was supposedly bullet-proof. Nevertheless, I managed to wipe out an entire account trading it and every three months the entire strategy was revised or altered. As you would expect, the new version would always be better than the last even though none of the versions “ever failed”! This guy has been in this cycle for well over fifteen years and I can confidently predict that he will be in it forever (or at least until he concludes that trading is a mug’s game and that it’s impossible to make a consistent profit). In his mind, the key to achieving his dream of trading success is in his system. So, am I trying to say that the system is insignificant? Well, the system will be what you use to determine when to buy or when to sell and buying and selling at the right times will be paramount to your overall trading success. Although by saying that I risk the possibility of self-contradiction, it’s only when you fully understand the nature of trading that you can truly grasp this concept. The fact is that whatever you use to determine your entry into the market will have little impact on the outcome of each individual trade. There is little or no point, therefore, in focusing solely on your trading method. To put it directly, you will never know who is participating in the market or why. When you consider this, it may help to explain those times when you have had an absolute text book set-up but the price has acted as if it wasn’t even there. This is even more frustrating when the last trade you took was a text book set-up, and it paid, just like it was ‘supposed’ to do. If this happens several times (and it will, on every strategy), then the inclination is to dump the system as ‘ineffective’ and find a new one. The reason that people are inclined to ditch the method and persist in the never-ending cycle (which we like to call the ‘Holy Grail Quest’) is because many assume that to be a good trader means that you have to somehow know which way the markets will go each session that you trade. By trading a system with this mindset, people place expectations on the outcome of each trade. The expectation is, of course, that the trade should win, when in reality, there is no way of possibly knowing what will happen next or where the price will go. You end up, therefore, with a random distribution of wins and losses which leads to disappointment, which subsequently perpetuates the cycle.

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    "The topic of how markets move and how to develop the correct viewpoint on them is much more detailed than I have covered here and is definitely a subject best left for coaches like Mark Douglas. What I am trying to do is help you to understand that the system really isn’t the ‘be all and end all’, because it’s impossible to have one that never loses. When it comes to the strategy that you are trading, the focus should merely be: Does this method result in a net gain or a net loss in my account after sustained trading? And how dramatic are the draw-downs during that trading period? If the answer to the first question is “yes”, and the answer to the second question is “not very dramatic at all”, then you are onto a winner and on your way to trading professionally. Assuming that you have taken all of that advice to heart, and that you are focused on merely finding a profitable strategy with no exaggerated expectation with regard to performance, then where do you go to find good potential trading strategies? When I was learning to trade, I tried almost every method and concept under the sun, but the one that caught my eye and really helped me become profitable was a concept called ‘Support and Resistance’. If you have been trading for any length of time, then I expect you will have heard of this concept, but if you haven’t, it’s very simple to get your head around. Start by looking on the price chart for an area where the price has already been repelled down. This area is now ‘resistance’, and vice- versa for ‘support’. If the price comes back to these same areas again, you can be ready and sell or buy in anticipation of the price being once again repelled. Of course, ‘Support and Resistance’ isn’t quite that simple, but again, the purpose of this book isn’t to give specific trade education. There are many courses on the internet that provide a detailed education on the concept of trading with ‘Support and Resistance’; my own course being one of many. The fact is that no one course is better than another. It’s a fact that these concepts exist and all that varies is the approach that one takes when trading with them. Typing a search for ‘Forex trading system’ into Google will bring up hundreds of potential trading methods that you can employ in your quest to become a professional trader. The one thing I would say is that if you are learning from someone who has been there and done it, and has the verified track record of performance to prove it, the education is going to be that much more insightful (as opposed to some guy who studied some charts for a few years). To get you started, here are a couple of really great web sites, which offer free content: Forex-strategiesrevealed.com is a fantastic resource in that it literally contains every method or strategy you could possibly imagine. In addition to these sites there are many quality forums where traders happily post their methods for free. One of the biggest and one that I would highly recommend is ForexFactory.com As you can see, finding a strategy is the easy part, but there is a step that most unsuccessful traders miss out on completely, which, ironically, is one of the keys to bringing psychology, risk management and your trading method together and helping you on your way to professional trading. The step I am talking about is that of testing your method. Testing your method brings about many huge benefits that will absolutely help you become a fund trader. How? Well, for a start it will give you a solid record of how your chosen system performs in real market conditions. This is very important for two reasons. Firstly, you will know the exact point that your method is not performing as it should be so that you can tweak it to improve performance; and secondly, going forward, it will provide you with the most reliable indicator on which to base your expectations in terms of performance. Knowing that you are in the middle of a draw- down or losing streak that has happened several times before is priceless, because, based on your record, you will also know that every time this kind of thing has happened your system has always righted itself and continued on in overall profit. This will help you to remain focused on the most important task at hand: taking the next trade. If you were without this data, the most likely scenario is that you would see the losing streak as another failed system and dump it in search of a ‘better’ one. So again, find a course or coach that helps you carry out these steps. I don’t conduct personal coaching but my DVD course basically outlines everything that I did which worked (whilst leaving out all the things that didn’t). I also outline in much greater detail the testing process that almost every other ‘guru’ seems to miss out. But again, no one course or coach or service is the ‘be all and end all’. The important thing is to find a strategy and test it to confirm that it works over a sustained period of trading. You can then use that history to give you the confidence to continue on trading it live. This can be done all on your own just by using the resources that we have looked at in this chapter. Through the course of this book, I will reference various traders whom I have met and worked with during my time. Some of those encounters involve them losing a lot of money or quitting trading altogether, simply because they didn’t know or just didn’t follow the principles and guidelines that I will outline here. On the other hand, there have also been a few traders who have done the exact opposite by taking what they have learned and applying it in such a way as to become fully fledged professional fund traders. So, once you have learned what to do in order to trade professionally, what comes next? Millions of pounds raked in by the day? Not quite yet. The next step in your ladder of success is all about credibility and standing out from the competition."

  10. #8
    Degenerate Member fridge's Avatar
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    Took a while but your selling a system,I have one for the horse's we can trade if you like

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    would you care to let everyone know how you came to that conclusion!

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    Fridge - I think you are mistaken here - Daytrader's first post says he was acting on a request from Flyingbolt - He has already answered questions - I think it could be a good thread. Continue Daytrader please.

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    Daytrader - What markets do you trade yourself.

    I would have thought that it be wise to pick a single market and try and become an expert' in this - or would this be precisely what a starter should not do?

    If it is a good strategy - what one market would you recommend? Thanks.

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    Degenerate Member fridge's Avatar
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    Actually believe it or not I am interested in the markets and think its a form of gambling,but when I read through the write up he says he doesn't do personal coaching but his dvd course etc also fb didnt ask, daytrader approached fb I apologize if I have got this tits up,and do want this to carry on

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    No problem fridge - I just read it all myself - he is quoting an article - which appears to be an extract from a book (written for people who manage other peoples funds I think) - contains some good pointers and advises against courses/ DVDs really - apart from favourable mentions of a Mark Douglas.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Kelly View Post
    Daytrader - What markets do you trade yourself.

    I would have thought that it be wise to pick a single market and try and become an expert' in this - or would this be precisely what a starter should not do?

    If it is a good strategy - what one market would you recommend? Thanks.
    have done several markets..but i think US stocks are the best for low risk v.s high reward..forget about Irish or UK stocks..they do not have the same moves as US ones

    the way you trade will depend on your circumstances and available time..if you can not sit down for the US open at 14:30..then you can try the last hour or 1.5 hour..19:30 to 21:00..other than that you are looking at holding overnight..or for a few days..or weeks..or months..which carries more risk..especially in the volatile markets we currently have

    the key is to start real small..as you will make many mistakes when you start..and get used to losing very quick if wrong..as mentioned..its a numbers game..and as long as you realize this and keep playing..you can get the odds on your side with experience..as like everything in life..you have to learn what works best and what does not..

    no one can tell you what way to trade..that is entirely your own decision..and trading might not suit you one little bit..but you will know very quickly..as there is no faster way to lose money than to dabble in the financial markets..look at sean quinn..hard to believe a person could lose so much money with leverage..i assume he was trading cfd's on anglo..he is obviously not as smart as he thought he was..or he was trying to buy anglo with a view to getting into the banking business..and it all backfired on him..my own guess is that he relied too much on advice from those around him..who made big money from his investing in anglo..in other words..he listened to so called "professionals"..which is the one thing you never do when gambling in the financial markets..you need to get off your ass and do the ground work yourself..that way you will know exactly how much you can lose..which is the only way to stay in the game so that you can make money

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    Quote Originally Posted by fridge View Post
    Actually believe it or not I am interested in the markets and think its a form of gambling,but when I read through the write up he says he doesn't do personal coaching but his dvd course etc also fb didnt ask, daytrader approached fb I apologize if I have got this tits up,and do want this to carry on
    apology accepted..as t kelly rightly said..it is just an abstract from an article to show the way it might work..one thing you never ever do is hand over money to anyone..for..the markets are such that no one can tell you the best way or the wrong way..there are many ways to trade..each with their own advantage and disadvantages..and each person must decide what way suits them best..then do a bit of learning..and just go for it..

    there was a recent meeting in aviva stadium held by IG..big event with all the big speakers..i looked up some videos since last years meeting..and all i can say it is just one big marketing campaign to try and get punters to sign up to IG..which is fine..for that is what they do..provide a stock/cfd/spreadbetting platform..as for the speakers..most of what they say is not relative unless you are a long term investor..which may suit some..but with the current world volatility..i think you would be mad to be a long term investor..for it is really simple..why leave your money at risk when you can open and close trades on a daily basis and reduce your risk..

    they still think everyone in Ireland is thick and can't read..the reality is that anyone who is selling you something is only doing it for one reason..to make money from you..they don't care if you win or lose..but you do..so ignore the idiots who think everyone is thick and take control of your own finances..but..very few will..as very few are prepared to put in the hours and hours of hard work to acquire the required knowledge..and that is the main reason why all these idiots will still be there in another 20 years time

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    here is a free ebook that provides some insight as to what is required..do not bother subscribing to their newsletter or anything else..just read the book as most of what is says is relative if you want to succeed
    Attached Files Attached Files

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    Degenerate Member fridge's Avatar
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    Daytrader,what is a reasonable bankroll to make a run at this?

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    if i was starting again..looking back at all what happened..i would go with spreadbet first to keep risk as small as possible when gaining experience..to start i would only put in 500 euro..as it is very tempting if you put in a few K euro to risk more then you should..most have a minimum bet if 1 sterling..some have lower but you will find that their platforms are not that good as the one who have the higher minimum

    summary..to make sure your money is safe..i would go with IG markets in the UK..they are a little bit more expensive in that the spreads are a little wider..but they are around the longest and have the biggest presence in the market..they also have the best mobile app in relation to charts and information..i think they have a conference in cork shortly..but those events are pure sales..i doubt if you will learn anything about reading charts at one of those events..and if you did it would more than likely be the wrong way
    Last edited by Daytrader; 28-10-2015 at 20:34.

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    Daytrader - Is what you are doing 'scalping'? Thanks.

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    tom..i trade a few different ways..some etf's and some options..the options are the longer term bet..but as i am buying an option..not selling it..each day will will see the value drop with time decay..so you only use money that you have already made..for the etf's..the duration can be anything from 1 min to 5 min..depending on how price moves after you enter..this could be considered a type of scalping..but i am not trading for just a few cents (or ticks if trading futures)..which most scalpers do..i trade based on what the chart is doing..some scalpers rely on time and sales and depth of market more so that charts..it really depends on what way you find the best for you..

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