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  1. #41
    Registered Member Radoslav's Avatar
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    Seattle for me HUGE BET

  2. #42
    Degenerate Member larryk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Radoslav View Post
    Seattle for me HUGE BET
    I'm thinking of doing the same
    The US Postal Service honored legendary race horse champion Secretariat with his own postage stamp. That shows you how strange life is for racehorses. You win the race, you wind up on the front of the stamp. Lose a race, you wind up on the back.

  3. #43
    Administrator camroc's Avatar
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    Having the NFL buildup shows shown on sky sports this week has really shown (could I use words with show in it more often) the level of hype and analysis involved in this game; it's simply amazing. Really looking forward to the game as it's a great clash of styles but I worry that defense wins these games and that Seattle will choke the life out of NE but here's hoping for an open and entertaining game.

  4. #44
    Ex-Administrator Flyingbolt's Avatar
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    I hope the Patriots have to go very, very deep into the playback and come up with some ridiculously crazy plays. I'm expecting a couple of touchdowns by players I've never heard of!

  5. #45
    Administrator camroc's Avatar
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    Indeed. You'd expect at least one big play to one of the fatties.

  6. #46
    Administrator camroc's Avatar
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    The Brady rushing bet looks good enough again. Lynch to be MVP at 9/2 looks good too, although someone like Sherman at 25/1 could be a nice price.

  7. #47
    Administrator camroc's Avatar
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    Actually, looking through the 9,000 different bets that you can have on this game, the one that stands out is Marshawn Lynch over 107.5 yards for rushing + receiving. When I first saw it at a glance I thought that they had set his rushing line a little bit high at 107.5 but actually that's at 87.5. He almost always has one big reception in a game for 10 to 20 yards and as the Seahawks don't have a huge number of star receivers they might rely on him a lot tonight and going for the 107.5 yards covers both angles as it's incredibly frustrating when you back overs on a running back and they bust a massive pass play.

  8. #48
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    Sherman to make an interception at 11/5 just for interest

  9. #49
    Degenerate Member frogger13's Avatar
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    have the patriots to win between 7 -12 points @ 5/1

  10. #50
    Degenerate Member larryk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by camroc View Post
    The Brady rushing bet looks good enough again. Lynch to be MVP at 9/2 looks good too, although someone like Sherman at 25/1 could be a nice price.
    11/2 and 33/1 with William Hill
    The US Postal Service honored legendary race horse champion Secretariat with his own postage stamp. That shows you how strange life is for racehorses. You win the race, you wind up on the front of the stamp. Lose a race, you wind up on the back.

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  12. #51
    Administrator camroc's Avatar
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    An entertaining half and the Seahawks are blessed (again!) to be level. The half seemed to fly by (maybe that's inevitable to some degree after all of the build up - the game seems relatively short!). The Patriots' game plan is typically brilliant but with the Seahawks getting the ball to start the second half they will probably regret not having a large lead at HT. Really hope that the Pats win though, would hate to see Brady's legacy tarnished even a tiny bit with three consecutive super bowl defeats. After the championship game you just got the feeling that this was the Seahawks' year again, and the first half reinforces that.

  13. #52
    Degenerate Member frogger13's Avatar
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    seahawks can fuck the right off lol

  14. #53
    Degenerate Member frogger13's Avatar
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    im a pure jinx

  15. #54
    Ex-Administrator Flyingbolt's Avatar
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    What a great end to the game. Yay football!

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  17. #55
    Administrator camroc's Avatar
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    Holy shit, this game never ceases to amaze. It looked like a freak play had cost the Pats another super bowl but in my biased opinion they didn't deserve to lose. Brady, despite throwing two interceptions, played wonderfully and deserved to be on the winning side and Belichick really showed his class in how he masterminded the victory (albeit it looked like it wasn't going to be enough). Fantastic game and a shame that the season is over. It's hard to disagree with the commentators in questioning why Seattle didn't run the ball with Lynch at the end.

  18. #56
    Ex-Administrator Flyingbolt's Avatar
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  20. #57
    Ex-Administrator Flyingbolt's Avatar
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    Jimmy Graham to the Seahawks!?

  21. #58
    Puppies and Cushions Moderator jimmyboy's Avatar
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    Jermaine Kearse over 38.5 yards with skybet 10/11.
    Under 47.5 bet365 10/13.
    Cracking opportunity herre
    Ted walsh: "This ones a cracker, I once rode her mother!"

  22. #59
    Puppies and Cushions Moderator jimmyboy's Avatar
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    This is aimed at Camroc as I know he's a lecturer in finance but if anyone else could help me it be appreciated.
    Are a players rushing/receiving yards normally distributed??
    I was trying to calculate the confidence interval for Kearse's receiving yards but its not making sense to me.
    For example, he's received a total of 685 yards this season.
    That gives: N=16
    Average = 42.8
    Stand. dev = 35.08
    Stand error = 8.77

    If I go to calculate a 95% confidence interval I get:

    42.8+_ (2.1)(8.77)= [34.4, 61.2] ------ 95% confident he will be in the range 34-61 yards in next game.

    Which of course can't be right.
    Is it just a case that its not a normal distribution and if so what is it?
    Also how would one go about calculating the confidence interval?
    How would the bookies price it up if they were doing a market on 'Range of Yards'.

    Also in hindsight I realise it be better to use rushing players as they'd have more touches in a game and the averages would be more accurate and not as commonly exposed to huge yardage gains
    Ted walsh: "This ones a cracker, I once rode her mother!"

  23. #60
    Puppies and Cushions Moderator jimmyboy's Avatar
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    Also...........Vikings and Bengals
    Ted walsh: "This ones a cracker, I once rode her mother!"

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