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Thread: Long Shot Value @ Cheltenham

  1. #1
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    Long Shot Value @ Cheltenham

    Had my first look at the handicaps today, as i find it annoying to look at them with too many runners and not sure of plans etc.

    JLT Specialty Handicap Chase 2:40 Tuesday

    Ill have greater explanations but suffice it to say both my selections in the race have the required Course & Festival form and to me look to be on a mark with possibilities.

    Magnanimity: Hasnt been great this year but has been improving and will surly improve again back at the scene of his best run last year in the RSA. He was somewhat supported last time out and that augers well for his chances here. 20/1 in a few palces looks great value.

    Mossley: Seems unsure to be going but again had a great run last year against Bobs Worth in the 3m hurdle last year at the festival and altough his jumping has been poor enough this year, he has a good course record of 122 and looks value at 20/1.

    1pt Each Way both at 20/1
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    Cross Country

    It just dawned on me that if Dancing Tornado bounds up the hill like the last time he was here, in front of Long Run, he is going to look great value at 33/1 or bigger on betfair . A big plus is the trainer knows what is required and he has been running well enough this year...

    1 pt win 1 pt place betfair 50/8.2
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    Distant Memories The 50/1 available about his horse just looks to big for one of his potential. He is one of the best of these on the flat and could really be better than he has currently shown. That being said he was going well when he made a horrible mistake behind midnight game last time out. If he can improve his jumping hell have the pace to compete at the end, as his flat career was near its peak not like a lot of the ex flat in this. A small min bet could pay dividends.

    .5 Points EW 50/1 Bet Victor 4 places
    Last edited by aidankk; 12-03-2012 at 21:49.
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    Sky bet are offering 5 places on that race. Its only 33/1 though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by doors View Post
    Sky bet are offering 5 places on that race. Its only 33/1 though.
    actually just went for 4 places with bet victor at 50/1..
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    5:15

    Battlegroup: The selection is another one that ran well at the festival last year when 4th behind Carlito. He hasnt really set the work on fire with his 3 novice chases, but has had a couple of runs over hurdles lately hopefully to get him ready for a big run here. He does love good ground having won well at Aintree last year as well, and could be on a decent mark. He just looks like on that could be capable of improving for his first run in a handicap for a canny stable. 48 win 7.5 place on betfair .

    1 Point win 1 Point Place Betfair 48/7.5
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    1:30 Agent Archie

    Agent Archie is currently available at 65's on Betfair. I think this is a huge price. If you examine how the form of his debut win when he won with any amount in hand has worked out it points to his odds being much shorter than he is today. He beat Ingleby Spirit by an eased down 7 lengths, Ingleby Spirit went on to win his next two races impressively to gain a mark of 134, he then ran a decent race against older horses in the Scottish County Hurdle. Third in Agent Archies debut race platinum hacked up next time out too.

    An interesting form line between Agent Archie and favourite Darlan comes through a horse called Jawhary who was over 100 lengths behind Agent Archie on his ludlow debut. Jawhary finished 6th of 13 in January behind Darlan (beaten 36 lengths). He's probably not good enough to win this but at 65's for the win and 14 to place he's well overpriced, could at worst be a bet to lay off in running.

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    Out of jail with Battlegroup getting placed at 40/1 yesterday .

    1:30 Alfie Spinner: I think his last run behind Invictus and Bobs Worth is easily the best form in this race and he should be about 5/1 fav. He looked to me like the slower pace and longer trip will only suit and im hoping he is a class ahead of these. 9/1 looks great value/ He has good form on decent ground and no matter what anyone says a very decent amature jockey on board.

    2 Points win 9/1
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    Not by any means a longshot but Simonsig looks exceptional value at 3/1 with will hill. I cant fancy any of the irish horses and i think this trip and ground will be ideal for him. For me his oponents are not up to much and he could be much shorter.

    3 Points win Will Hill 3/1
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    4:00 Son of Flicka. He has done nothing whatsoever this year but ran a great race last year when 2nd to Sir Des Champs over c&d with 5lbs higher in the handicap. The trainer couldnt be in better form and shurely this race has been the plan. i just missed the 40/1 available earlier but 33/1 with 5 places is still good.

    1 pt EW 33/1 5 places boyles pp etc.
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    1:30 Bob n You.

    Has been off the course a long time since finishing second to The Giant Bolster in a novice chase. He has enough ability for this race, and looks to like good ground judging by a good hurdle run of 137 at Ascot 2 years ago. The jockey has a very good record at cheltenham 2/4 and 66/1 with 4 places might be a bit of value.

    .5 pt EW 66/1 Bet 365..
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    4:00

    Consigliere: Have to thank my brother for finding this one, but he is in here with a 10lbs claimer on 10lbs below his very good recent chase form and has great form at the festival albeit over fences. Could well come up the hill well on very little weight.

    1 pt ew 40/1 Coral 5 places and others
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    Quote Originally Posted by aidankk View Post
    4:00

    Consigliere: Have to thank my brother for finding this one, but he is in here with a 10lbs claimer on 10lbs below his very good recent chase form and has great form at the festival albeit over fences. Could well come up the hill well on very little weight.

    1 pt ew 40/1 Coral 5 places and others
    I've backed Consigliere at the last two Festivals and unfortunately one thing he doesn't do is come up the hill well. But as you say, he's in here on a very good mark compared to his chase rating. I might join you on this, at least for a place bet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by aidankk View Post
    4:00 Son of Flicka. He has done nothing whatsoever this year but ran a great race last year when 2nd to Sir Des Champs over c&d with 5lbs higher in the handicap. The trainer couldnt be in better form and shurely this race has been the plan. i just missed the 40/1 available earlier but 33/1 with 5 places is still good.

    1 pt EW 33/1 5 places boyles pp etc.
    Great Pick Aidan!!

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    Top stuff aidan.

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    Well done Aidan. Great pick.

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    Well done Aiden

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    top stuff Aidan

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    Nice!
    The US Postal Service honored legendary race horse champion Secretariat with his own postage stamp. That shows you how strange life is for racehorses. You win the race, you wind up on the front of the stamp. Lose a race, you wind up on the back.

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    Pertmepts

    Pettifour : This horse was very good acouple of years ago and came back this year of a good mark, running very well first time out and well again 2nd time,. He has been poor enough since, but has always run well fresh and has been given a 2 month break. Willie T Davis is up and takes 7lbs off. Surly they would have this race in mind for him when he ran so well first time out. 50/1 on Stan James is well overpriced with 5 places.

    1 PT EW 50/1 Stan James 12345 places
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