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Thread: 100 Bets Flat Peak Season

  1. #1
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    100 Bets Flat Peak Season

    Going to start again, and hopefully do better with this tread.

    Rules this time


    • No Big Dog Racing
    • Less Place Bets
    • Less picks
    • Report on every runner
    • Keep profit up to date on each run
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  2. #2
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    Bet 1

    York 4:25

    Duchess Dora. The more i look at this race the more sure i am that she should be fav here. She has been steadily getting better this year and her run over c&d earlier this year in what looks a much tougher race, should really put her in with a big shout here. She is drawn low and that looks the place to be as most of the fancied horses are drawn low. She has a claimer back on today and has only ever won with a claimer on board. 11 on betfair or 9/1 with boyles looks too big, i reckon she is more of a 9/2-5/1 shot


    2 Points Win 11.0 Betfair
    Last edited by aidankk; 10-06-2011 at 12:46.
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  3. #3
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    Bet 2

    York 3:15

    Grand Caiman: He has been a consistant enough horse on the AW in sellers/claimers lately, but has come down a huge chunk in ratings. He is here of 73 which looks about fair for his last few runs. He has a decent claimer on and should the return to turn spark anything at all he would have a small chance. His price on betfair of 70 win 11 place looks a bit too big, and he may be more of a 33/1 shot.

    .5 point win .5 point place Betfair
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  4. #4
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    Bet 3

    4:35 Sandown

    Layline: Improver on the AW lately with a rating of 91 and running up to that. Outclassed last time in a group 3 , but has run well in the past on turf and in here with a mark of 86, which does look to give him a reasonable chance if he can produce on turf here. I would put her at arounf 16-20/1 and the 33/1 available from StanJames looks a bit generous.

    1 Point Each way 33/1 Stan James
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  5. #5
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    Duchess Dora looks a bit short of pace at the moment ill wait until she goes off at a big price maybe after a break. She had every chance but just couldnt pickup.

    Layline, ran well enough and may be worth another bet, got run out of it in the end after leading for most of the way. He may be able to win of that mark on turf.
    Less said about grand caiman the better, last by a mile.


    -5 points yesterday.
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  6. #6
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    Bet 4

    York 3:15

    Majestic Dubawi: A very good juvanile winning a good G3 at Ayr. Was poor first time out this year, but did run well enough until not staying in the irish 1000. The step back in trip to 6 furlongs might do the trick here and she could get involved here at a huge price for a filly of her class at 2. Currently 60 win 9.6 place on betfair

    1 Point win 1 Point Place
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  7. #7
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    Bet 5

    Sandown 2:55

    Namecheck: probably the most unexposed in the field, and had plenty of promise at 2, particulary in a very good listed race. He has had a run this year which he ran ok but ran out of steam and looks certain to come on for that. The stable is in good form and often trows up a winner with a similiar profile. He looks a bit overpriced at 20/1 to improve or get back to 2yo form, with a tep back in trip to 7f.

    1 Point each way 20/1
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  8. #8
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    Majestic Dubawi, ran a great race for a 60/1 shot, and looked to have a great chance of placing until getting no room at all near the finish. Looked under pressure early but really responded, looks as if she can really win a nice 7 furlong event shortly.

    Namecheck was backed into 12/1 and ran well in 5th, stayed on towards the finish and considering how little action he has seen could eassily improve for that run..
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  9. #9
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    Doncaster 3:25

    Able Master: Generally off form last season, but one very good run in the Ayr gold cup where he finished really well, he looks on a very good mark and should be worth a small win bet here on his late seasonal appearance. I wouldnt be surprised if he was being aimed at the Ayr gold cup again this year but of this mark he worth a small bet at a huge price.

    1 Point EW 33/1 William Hill

    Star Rover: Was very well supported last time but ran poorly enough, but his last run over c&d when 2nd with 1 lbs higher reads well for this race, he is capable of getting into a place here enough times to warrent an EW bet at big odds

    1 Point EW 40/1 Boyle Sports
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  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by aidankk View Post
    Doncaster 3:25

    Able Master: Generally off form last season, but one very good run in the Ayr gold cup where he finished really well, he looks on a very good mark and should be worth a small win bet here on his late seasonal appearance. I wouldnt be surprised if he was being aimed at the Ayr gold cup again this year but of this mark he worth a small bet at a huge price.

    1 Point EW 33/1 William Hill

    Star Rover: Was very well supported last time but ran poorly enough, but his last run over c&d when 2nd with 1 lbs higher reads well for this race, he is capable of getting into a place here enough times to warrent an EW bet at big odds

    1 Point EW 40/1 Boyle Sports
    You got 40/1!? I'm backing him at 30s on the machine, waiting for someone to match me at 8.2 in the place market.
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  11. #11
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    actually backed him at 42 on the machine
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  12. #12
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    Fuck, I never got matched
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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by aidankk View Post
    Doncaster 3:25

    Able Master: Generally off form last season, but one very good run in the Ayr gold cup where he finished really well, he looks on a very good mark and should be worth a small win bet here on his late seasonal appearance. I wouldnt be surprised if he was being aimed at the Ayr gold cup again this year but of this mark he worth a small bet at a huge price.

    1 Point EW 33/1 William Hill

    Star Rover: Was very well supported last time but ran poorly enough, but his last run over c&d when 2nd with 1 lbs higher reads well for this race, he is capable of getting into a place here enough times to warrent an EW bet at big odds

    1 Point EW 40/1 Boyle Sports
    4th Jeez i tought he was going to win still decent run at a nice price..
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  14. #14
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    -4 yesterday running total -9

    today 40/1 with boyles has 15% reduction which is 34/1, 9.5 points back including stake.

    +6.5 Points today - running total -3.5
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  15. #15
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    Bet 8

    St James's Palace Stakes

    Zoffany: One time main hopes for ballydoyle as a 2yo, and again seems to be overpriced here given the almost certain massive improvement from his ok first run of the season. Could easily be the 2nd best in this race and with NRNB its worth a try at 25/1 with ladbrokes.

    1 Point EW Ladbroesk NRNB 25/1
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  16. #16
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    Bet 9 / 10

    Kings Stand

    Sole Power: Not a lot of explanation here required, he has the best 5 furlong form in the race and really should be fav here on his run in the temple last time out. He is being underestimated, his beating of SSB last year is better form than anything else in the race. The softer going is reducing the size of my bet as it could be a negative.

    2 Points win 8/1 Various

    Monsieur Chevalier: on looking trough the field there is a lot that can be ruled out, but i liked the look of his last run considering it was his first since he was 2. He looks a bit overpriced at 25/1 and its more of a gut feeling selection than anything else. He did run a very good race in the Prix Abbay as a 2yo and any improvement will put him in with a shout here.

    1 Point each way 25/1

    Worth going for the 4 places here as a few are offering it . I went with boyles 4 place ew..
    Last edited by aidankk; 13-06-2011 at 23:22.
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  17. #17
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    only problem here might be that both come off the pace. In an ideal world you'd like one at either end of the pace spectrum. Tangerine Trees, Overdose and Rose Blossom like to blast off though so the back might be the place to be.

    I've taken Kingsgate Native, Prohibit and Arctic who I think could outrun his odds of 50/1
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  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nulty View Post
    only problem here might be that both come off the pace. In an ideal world you'd like one at either end of the pace spectrum. Tangerine Trees, Overdose and Rose Blossom like to blast off though so the back might be the place to be.

    I've taken Kingsgate Native, Prohibit and Arctic who I think could outrun his odds of 50/1

    You could be right there, i had tought overdose all week when he was about 16 18/1 but he doesnt appeal at 12s which looks about right.. Artic should be helped by the softening ground.
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  19. #19
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    Bet 11

    Ascot 5:00

    Desert Sea: He ran a few very good races last year of slightly higher mark, including a 6th in the Chester Cup 3rd in the northumberland plate and 6 again in the Ebor. He has a good record fresh and looks about 3/1 to be to place considering he looks a stout stayer, making the 6.8 available currently on betfair look a bit of value. Id prefer if i could get on at 5 places but there doesnt seem to be any available.

    1 Point win 1 Point Place Betfair 50 win 6.8 place
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  20. #20
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    Golden Jubilee Stakes Ascot Sat

    Monsieur Chevalier : Good run there when left with far too much to do , the extra furlong will surly help, and 50/1 will not last.

    2 Points Each Way 50/1 William Hill/ otesport
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