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Thread: 100 Bets to broke NH Finale

  1. #1
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    100 Bets to broke NH Finale

    Sandown 2:25
    Reve De Sivola: Although his last run didn't look that great, his second last run was better. He was a top class novice hurdler finishing second to Peddlers Cross at the festival last year. I'm not convinced that there is a lot between the main contenders and he looks a bit of value at around 13 win and 3.5 to place.


    2 Points win 2 Points Place

    Sandown 3:00
    Gee Dee Nen: Hasn't been consistent over fences this year but his last few runs over hurdles look decent considering his lower mark here. He was 3rd in the Lanzarote Handicap hurdle to Michael Flipps of a mark of 125 this time last year. He is in here of 122 with only 10:02 to carry and that makes him look competitive. Currently 70.0 to win and 8.0 to place. He certainly doesn't look that big to me on his hurdles form.
    1 Point win 1 Point Place

    Sandown 3:35
    Take the Breeze: I tipped him last week when he was a non runner, and nothing has changed except this is a weaker race. He is gone up 6lbs for his last very good run against an excellent yardstick in Massinis Maguire, and has a decent 5lb claimer on to offset that today. He looks a good bit clear of these on known form and could be well capable of giving weight all around. He looks a couple of points overpriced @ 5.2.


    3 Points Win

    Ffos Las: 2:40
    Tarkari:, I'm going to go with gut feeling that this one might have a very decent chance of being second here, he is the choice over Barizan of the stable jockey, and none of the other rivals have any decent form on softer going. Currently he looks overpriced at about 5.2 and might get a bit bigger as the market strengthens.


    2 Points Place
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    Degenerate Member De Town's Avatar
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    I've decided to follow this religiously. In Aidan I trust.

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    Degenerate Member De Town's Avatar
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    And just as I log into Betfair to back the horses, it tells me it's down for planned maintenance...at fucking midday on a Saturday. Gobshites.

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    Quote Originally Posted by aidankk View Post
    Ffos Las: 2:40
    Tarkari:, I'm going to go with gut feeling that this one might have a very decent chance of being second here, he is the choice over Barizan of the stable jockey, and none of the other rivals have any decent form on softer going. Currently he looks overpriced at about 5.2 and might get a bit bigger as the market strengthens.


    2 Points Place
    Absolutely robbed by a shocking jump at the last.

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    yeah, it was gong well, and obviously ridden for 2nd.. ahh well.. he is really well handicapped tough if hes not nailed for that run..
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    Sandown 4:05

    King Edmund, he is back from a bit of a break on decent ground which should suit him. He had a few poor jumps in both starts early this season, and hopefully it has been sorted out for this. He looks a bit overpriced here at 10/1

    2 Points win 10/1
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    Sandown 2:25
    Reve De Sivola: Never was running well at all, and surely cant be anywhere near his best yet.


    Sandown 3:00
    Gee Dee Nen: Went of 100/1 on betfair , Ran very well and was still coasting until the 3rd last, when he made a terrible mistake.. He look a well handicapped horse to me and could well do something soon...

    Sandown 3:35
    Take the Breeze: Didnt Stay after looking the most likely winner 2 out.


    Ffos Las: 2:40
    Tarkari:, Looked sure to place 2nd as expected but made a big mistake at the last...
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    15:35 Musselburgh


    Bocamix: This is just a case of his price being too big, altough he has gone up massivly in the weights, his second to last run was very good in the context of this race. There he had a few horses behind rated well above even his new rating of 130 and that kind of run again might just give him a decent shot of placing, he has a reasonable racing weight of 11:02.. Currently 48 win 10.5 place

    1 Point win 2 Point Place
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    Southwell 3:45

    Masked Dance: Ticks a few boxes here, he is down to 70, has a good 3lbs claimer on board for the first time in a while. His last run can be excluded as he just didnt stay, but he was in front with 1 f to go over 8f. His 3rd last run over c&d to me looks good in the context of this race. he ran well here and i would put that run about 80 really , considering he conceeded weight all round and finished well. He looks a 7/1 shot to me at most, and is currently 12/1 generally and 14.5/3.3 on betfair.. I would think he is very likely to place here given that he stays further and is on a very low mark.

    2 Points win 2 points Place
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    Quote Originally Posted by aidankk View Post
    Southwell 3:45

    Masked Dance: Ticks a few boxes here, he is down to 70, has a good 3lbs claimer on board for the first time in a while. His last run can be excluded as he just didnt stay, but he was in front with 1 f to go over 8f. His 3rd last run over c&d to me looks good in the context of this race. he ran well here and i would put that run about 80 really , considering he conceeded weight all round and finished well. He looks a 7/1 shot to me at most, and is currently 12/1 generally and 14.5/3.3 on betfair.. I would think he is very likely to place here given that he stays further and is on a very low mark.

    2 Points win 2 points Place

    grrrrrrr.. flew in the end from last place, to just fail to get placed, one for next time definatly...
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    totesport Trophy Hurdle 3:35 Newbury
    Nearby: Having looked at his last handicap win of 145 in the Elite hurdle, he really won this well and did look as if he could stand another rise in the weights. He is running here of 150, and has the same 7lbs claimer that he has won with 3 times this season. It could be said that he was a bit disappointing in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth, but that was a hot race, and he wasn't made to work hard when it was obvious he wasn't going to place. He has had a decent break since the end of November and hopefully is ready to do himself justice here. He looks overpriced at 90.0 win and 13.0 place.
    1 Point win 1 Point place.

    Tarkari: For me he ran an eye-catching race last week. He was obviously ridden for second and looked like achieving that until he made a mess of the last. Considering Black Jack Blues is rated 147, and the selection looked like overhauling him for second, his mark here of 132 looks very good. He is also due to go up 4lbs after this race. There are some negatives in that that race was only 7 days ago but the price reflects that and he looks value at current odds of 36.0 win and 7.0 place. He also seemed to be going well in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham until falling 3 out.
    1 Point win 1 Point Place

    Deloitte Novice Hurdle 2:45 Leopardstown

    Si C'etait Vrai: Just looking at this race it appears to me that there is not a lot between the rest of the field apart from Zaidpour. This one should handle the ground and ran well last time over 2m4f at the course. He is currently double the price of The Bull Hayes having already beaten him before, and just looks value at currently 70 win and 8.4 place.
    1 Point win 1 Point Place

    Bet On totescoop6 Handicap Chase Warwick 2:10

    Panjo Bere: in a race with a lot of question marks over most of the runners, if he can be sparked back into form with the addition of blinkers, and reproduce the run is his second last race, he may be in with a shout here at a decent price. He is currently 16/1 with Stan James
    1 Point Each Way
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    Tarkari: For me he ran an eye-catching race last week. He was obviously ridden for second and looked like achieving that until he made a mess of the last. Considering Black Jack Blues is rated 147, and the selection looked like overhauling him for second, his mark here of 132 looks very good. He is also due to go up 4lbs after this race. There are some negatives in that that race was only 7 days ago but the price reflects that and he looks value at current odds of 36.0 win and 7.0 place. He also seemed to be going well in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham until falling 3 out.
    1 Point win 1 Point Place

    NON Runner, he was pricewise pick as well and price had gone into 20
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    Totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle Newbury 1:55

    Ackertac: We will have to forgive him his last run, but the stable is in flying form now and his form earlier this season puts him in here with a great shout, he is a few points bigger that i tough he would be at 14/1 with stanjames and is worthy of a small win bet at those odds. The decent ground 3miles around here should suit him.

    1 Point win 14/1 Stanjames
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    Ladbrokes.com Boyne Hurdle 2:50 Navan

    Oscar Dan Dan: In this race it looks to me as if there is nothing between most of the contenders bar Vol la Ved, he has good form over the course on the ground and returned to form last time over a trip to far in Gowran. If the Fav can reproduce her hattons grace run where she wasnt loosing any ground at the end, shell be miles clear of these, but the selection looks overpriced of the rest.

    1 Point win 15.0 Betfair 2 points place 3.55

    1 Point Exacta Vol la Ved / Oscar
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    Betfair Graduation Chase Exeter 3:10

    The Sliotar: He was supported first time out this season , but jumped badly and pulled up. If there is any chance he can reproduce his form of last season where he beat Blazing Baily twice on soft ground, he will be overpriced here. Trainer and jock have a great record at this course and he just looks overpriced at 12 to win on betfair. i would this 8 is more realistic.

    2 Points win 12.0
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    Southwell. 1:50

    Dickie Le Davoir: His last run in a seller where all the other runners were much higher rated, he finished well enough in the context of this poor race. He has raced of much higher in the past and is much higher on betfair than with any of the bookies. Currently 15.5 win. There was money for him earlier but he is being layed now. He is worth a point at that price.

    1 Point win
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    Punchestown 2:45

    Mr Meaner: he was midfield in a much stronger race behind So Young at Leopardstown, and look overpriced to place here currently at 11.0 to place. 79 to win. This look a much easier race than that one and with normal improvement he might get into a place.

    1 Point win 1 Point Place
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    Quote Originally Posted by aidankk View Post
    Punchestown 2:45

    Mr Meaner: he was midfield in a much stronger race behind So Young at Leopardstown, and look overpriced to place here currently at 11.0 to place. 79 to win. This look a much easier race than that one and with normal improvement he might get into a place.

    1 Point win 1 Point Place

    Feck went of at 160 on betfair, and finished best of all making up a huge amount of ground near the end to finish a close up 6th... One for the notebook in a longer maiden hurdle..
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    [QUOTE=aidankk;231902]totesport Trophy Hurdle 3:35 Newbury
    Nearby: Having looked at his last handicap win of 145 in the Elite hurdle, he really won this well and did look as if he could stand another rise in the weights. He is running here of 150, and has the same 7lbs claimer that he has won with 3 times this season. It could be said that he was a bit disappointing in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth, but that was a hot race, and he wasn't made to work hard when it was obvious he wasn't going to place. He has had a decent break since the end of November and hopefully is ready to do himself justice here. He looks overpriced at 90.0 win and 13.0 place.
    1 Point win 1 Point place.


    Running tomorrow at 1:50, in the rescheduled race. currently 65 win 10 place, still to big even tough the softer ground probably wont help.
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    Newbury 12:10

    Miss Overdrive : This one came second in a stonger C&D Race a couple or runs ago, and then ran well at chepstow as well. Has run 3 times on the course and placed each time. Also has form of soft going. She has a 7lbs claimer on this time that has got on well before. This really looks a missprice, i have it much shorter.

    3 Pts Each Way 16/1 Bet365. also 20 win on betfair.
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