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Thread: 100 Bets to Broke, NH :-) and last of the flat

  1. #1
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    100 Bets to Broke, NH :-) and last of the flat

    1- 15:40 Ascot, 1m 4f ladbrokes.com Stakes
    Icon Dream: This one really looks likely to have lot in his favor tomorrow at a decent price. All his best runs have been on soft going, winning his maiden on heavy and second in the Chester Vase on good-soft. He gets a 6lb 3yo allowance and this puts him in here on a decent racing weight of 9:0 with a rating of 101. He is visored tomorrow with a tongue -tie and it's his first run in a handicap - all of which adds up to a decent chance of tomorrow being a going day. He is currently overpriced 20/1

    2 points EW

    2- 15:55 York, 6f Coral Sprint Trophy
    Able Master: He was my selection for the Ayr Silver Cup a few weeks ago and ran really well when short of room to finish 8th. His C&D win here off the same mark as today (also at the end of the season) on similar ground puts him in here with a great chance. He is drawn low in 5 and this looks to be the right side to be on. Considering he has run well this year off 10lbs higher also on ground with some give in it, he looks to have a lot in his favor tomorrow. Currently 14/1 Stan James

    2 points EW

    3- 14:15 York, 1m coral.co.uk Handicap
    Bonnie Charlie: I'm going to give him a small chance at a very decent price; he has a decent record at the end of the year in the last 2 years and most of his best runs have been on ground with some cut in it. He has come down 14lbs from his peak last year, and if he gets the extra furlong which has looked likely in one or two of his previous races, he is capable of placing in this type of race of this mark. Currently 42 win 8.6 place

    1 point win, 1 point place

    4- 17:10 Chepstow, 3m Rhys Howells Memorial Handicap Chase
    Ellerslie George: Altough his last run was poor, today he has the right conditions and trip and looks overpriced at 20/1 to come back to form today. he had some support last day which might indicate some kind of home form. His record at this time of the year is very good.. with a few wins in october..

    1 Point EW 20/1

    5- 15:05 Ascot,6f Models 1 Bengough Stakes
    Genki
    : In the form of his life and conditions to suit today, he has a decent weight advantage with Redford from their last run and really there is nothing between them and he is double the price.

    3 Points Win 6/1 Stan James
    Last edited by aidankk; 09-10-2010 at 09:45.
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    Bad day yesterday,

    Summerinthecity : Not my style going for favs but this ones last run was a long way ahead of anything else in this race and he has gone up only 4lbs (he was 1 over last time), he beat some very good consistant horses last time who have franked the form. He is drawn 13 of 13 which is perfect and looks overpriced at 9/2. He also is proven on soft going..

    3 Points Win 9/2
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    Munster National, Fisher Bridge He looks overpriced considering his good form at this time of the year, couple of decent flat run this year, and will be fit. The Good ground should suit, but its his first try at 3m, worth a shot at a big price, and being the stable second string might not rule him out here, as Meade i ususally in great for at this time of the year..

    1 Point Each Way 28/1 Ladbrokes
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    Quote Originally Posted by aidankk View Post
    Munster National, Fisher Bridge He looks overpriced considering his good form at this time of the year, couple of decent flat run this year, and will be fit. The Good ground should suit, but its his first try at 3m, worth a shot at a big price, and being the stable second string might not rule him out here, as Meade i ususally in great for at this time of the year..

    1 Point Each Way 28/1 Ladbrokes
    nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnooooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooooooooooooooooooooooo


    Jeez i was counting the money... ahh well.. the winner stayed on really well
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    Newmarket 5:15, Gallagher, he is racing of his lowest ever mark. the run when a very good 6th off 6 lbs higher at ascot, look good on his current mark, and all his runs since have been on softer going. He has the best draw of all wide in 30 and also has a claimer on for the first time since that good run.. Its s lot of tick marks for one horse in this type of race so he looks valye at 33/1 EW and could be bigger tomorrow.

    1 Point Each Way 33/1
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    Make sure you get 5 Places in that race. Good Luck Aiden
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    Quote Originally Posted by aidankk View Post
    Newmarket 5:15, Gallagher, he is racing of his lowest ever mark. the run when a very good 6th off 6 lbs higher at ascot, look good on his current mark, and all his runs since have been on softer going. He has the best draw of all wide in 30 and also has a claimer on for the first time since that good run.. Its s lot of tick marks for one horse in this type of race so he looks valye at 33/1 EW and could be bigger tomorrow.

    1 Point Each Way 33/1
    I agree has an excellent chance today. very strange jockey booking tho.
    Last edited by Jombo; 15-10-2010 at 08:17. Reason: strange jockey!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimbo View Post
    I agree has an excellent chance today. very strange jockey booking tho.
    me too Jimbo, no concerns over the Jockey for me as he's been a very good season.

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    I have no problems with him either. Its just his first ride for meehan that would concern me. surely it would be better to use someone that has ridden for you before if you were trying to win a big handicap.

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    15:40 Newmarket, 2m 2f totesport.com Cesarewitch
    Swingkeel: I like the look of his run at Ascot in the Queen Alexandra, where he was gaining all the way to the line when 3rd and well supported. He had previously run well in the Chester Cup and looks to have been laid out for this with a break and a run in a 14f Conditions Event where he ran above his mark over a distance too short. He was well supported in this last year and although he ran poorly he clearly is highly tough of by connections, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see support for him tomorrow.

    1 Point Each Way 33/1 12345 Bet365

    Kayf Aramis: If he can show any of the improvement on the flat that he showed over hurdles in the last 18 months, he will have a great chance here. Ran well of 2lbs higher at Ascot in June 09 and has had only one Flat race since, which was hopefully a warm up for this race over the C&D a month ago. He looks sure to improve for that run and may well be well treated of this mark, considering his improvement over hurdles.

    1 Point Each Way 28/1 12345 Bet265

    14:40 Cheltenham, 2m 4f 110y zeturf.com Handicap Chase
    Gwanako: This race looks the ideal combination of Trip and Ground for him. He has gone down a few pounds and has a 5lbs claimer on board which will give him decent racing weight. He was well supported in a similar race over C&D last year and a mistake gave him no chance. He is Currently 12/1 but could easily be bigger tomorrow considering Ruby is on another Nichols horse.
    1 Point Each Way

    15:00 Newmarket, 1m 2f Emirates Airline Champion Stakes
    Sri Putra: He just looks overpriced to place particularly, I’m not sure his Eclipse 2nd was that much of a fluke, he has a number of good runs this year. This looks a very poor Group 1 and he has a decent chance of getting into it after having a decent break which may help
    1 Point Each Way 33/1 Stan James


    Ante Post Champion Hurdle 2011
    Barizan: I was really impressed with this horse at the end of last year after a hard season. He looks well overpriced for the Champion Hurdle and reminds me of Katchit, in that he is super tough and has top notch course form. He may or may not win tomorrow but im sure that in the Spring next year he will be hard to pass coming up the hill next year. Currently 48 win 10 place and looks worth a small investment at those odds in case of an easy success tomorrow.
    1 Point Win 1 Point Place
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    Star Rover Catterick 3:25. Well overpriced at 25/1 EW of this mark to get placed at least, has been running well this year and no superstars in this race, more like a 12/1 Shot..

    2 Points Eachs Way 25/1
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    Ponte 3:40 , Strike Up The Band: more gut feeling than anything here, but todays 5f on good ground might suit him, and he has a turn around in weights with tha fav, which might just bring them together, he looks overpriced

    2 Point Win 8/1
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    Bit late notice, but i like AOB in these late season nurseries, and Flavia Tatiana , look sure to like the step up in trip and gets in here on a decent mark. looks overpriced at 11.5 on betfair. second last run was decent and looked to be staying on over 6f. JM not on has pushed up price, he is on one for Watchman, but that has a decent bit of weight.

    2 Points Win 11.5 Betfair

    2:45 Nav
    Last edited by aidankk; 20-10-2010 at 14:42.
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    Unlucky Aidan

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    F sake, on a shocking run of luck.. That one had loads in hand, but broke badly and couldnt get out... really flying at the end..

    Ahh well..
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    Quote Originally Posted by aidankk View Post


    F sake, on a shocking run of luck.. That one had loads in hand, but broke badly and couldnt get out... really flying at the end..

    Ahh well..
    yea that should have won. pity that moral victors dont pay out tho!

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    3:55 Doncaster, 5f 40% Better Off On Betfair SP Handicap Secret Asset has been running well off around this mark or higher all season, and his last run looked better than the 8th place finish suggested. He is fine on good-soft or softer going and seems equally good at 5f or 6f. He is down 2lbs today and has the claimer who rode him in most of his decent runs this year. The draw isn't ideal near the middle in 9 but he can go to either side from here and looks to have a reasonable chance.

    2 Points Each Way 33/1 SkyBet 12345

    3:10 Newbury, 7f E.B.F. Bathwick Tyres Fillies' Handicap
    Bintalwaddi had a couple of very decent runs earlier this year and didn't look to stay 1m in his last run, leading until running out of petrol. The step back to 7f will surely suit, along with good-soft going. He looks overpriced at 22 to win and 4.9 to place.

    2pt win, 2pt place


    16:35 Aintree, 3m 1f Totetentofollow.co.uk Veterans' Handicap Chase
    Royal Rosa had a few very decent runs last year, and is a proven stayer who is often good on his first run. His run in the Becher last year on his reappearance was very good and he looks to be underestimated. Any extra rain will help and he has an excellent chance of running into a place on the long run-in here. Currently 16 to win 4.6 place.

    1pts win, 2pts place

    3:25 Aintree, Old Roan Chase

    Albertas Run, has a really top notch record first time out, and i cant understand how hes not much shorter here, his last 2 runs last year were a revelation and the C&D win at the end of last year was one of the best chases id seen for years. Id put him at 7/4 Fav here on known form, i cant resist that price he's 5.8 on Betfair. He wasnt really supported last year first time out but still obliged..


    4 Points Win 5.8 Betfair
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    On an epic bad run, but ive got to give chief yeoman a small change at 60/12 on betfair for Chep 4:10. He has ran well of this mark in teh past and has a few times come back from a poor run to improve plenty. Just looks a nice price

    1 Point win 1 Point Place
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    No internet today so have to use phone..


    King Edmund, ascot 4:50 8.0 betfair very good last year overpriced.. *3 pts win

    Massinis maguire , ascot 3.40. Looks ovrpriced and reasonably treated 2 pts win 8.2

    Blazing baily, weth 2:50 , might be a tight enough race and he look the most value at 17.5 betfair. 2 pts win

    Nacarat, weth 3:25 looks a few pounds clear of these and should be fav, stable reasonably confident .. *6.4 betfair 3 pts win..*
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  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by aidankk View Post
    No internet today so have to use phone..


    King Edmund, ascot 4:50 8.0 betfair very good last year overpriced.. *3 pts win

    Massinis maguire , ascot 3.40. Looks ovrpriced and reasonably treated 2 pts win 8.2

    Blazing baily, weth 2:50 , might be a tight enough race and he look the most value at 17.5 betfair. 2 pts win

    Nacarat, weth 3:25 looks a few pounds clear of these and should be fav, stable reasonably confident .. *6.4 betfair 3 pts win..*
    In poker terms I may use my one time here for king Edmund..

    Thank god for national hunt..
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