Thankfully it didn’t take long for the first winner to go in. AP sat motionless and El Namoose strangely drifted out to odds against at 11/10 just before the off! I will update the P+L at the end of the week for anyone following.
Moving on to today’s racing, there is plenty of action both in the UK and Ireland. Punchestown takes centre stage in Ireland and there are four meetings to choose from in the UK. As you may have gathered I think the best opportunities of a winner or two will come from the lovely leafy Lingfield in Surrey. Having had a good look through all five cards, two horses stand out to me as having a good opportunity to strike. The fourth race on the Lingfield card features a small but select group of 2yos for this nursery. Ten horses go to post and over half of the field (7/10) have won a race already in their short careers. Rather than taking the view that this race is competitive on paper and the likeliness that all have their respective chances on figures, I have instead focussed on the fact that as 2yos these horses will generally be progressive as they mature into their careers. I narrowed the race down to four horses which are Evening Rain, Russian Heroine, L’addition and Koptoon.
L’addition is the biggest price of these but that is no reason to be put off having won here over C&D on her debut. She then ran twice on turf and has a chance, returned to all-weather and may be able to pick up on the AW where she had left off. Russian Heroine has had four runs and has been 2nd three times, all over 6f on turf and came agonisingly close to winning last time missing out by a nose. Her chance is obvious if she handles the AW surface and she represents top connections. Koptoon was a last time out winner and most importantly it was on a similar AW surface in Kempton. She is handed an opening mark of 78 but it is hard to gauge the form of that maiden having no worthwhile form to go on. She may well defy her mark but I am not convinced. Finally that leaves Evening Rain for the Saeed Bin Suroor and Godolphin operation who is the top weight on a mark of 82. She has ran respectably well on all four starts but her first three were over today’s 6f trip on turf. Interestingly she was upped in trip to 7f last time (also on turf) and despite finishing second, lost little in defeat. She looks to have the form to be competitive and her current mark is probably just right on what she has achieved so far. On her third run she was upped in class and ran well splitting 80+ rated performers and last time I think she wasn’t quite ready for 7f having plodded on at one pace against a winner who looks to be improving having won their previous race too. She has the assistance of cheekpieces and a very capable 5lb claimer in Kevin Stott on board to do the steering. While the surface is an unknown I think she has less to prove than some of the others and I expect her to get her head in front today. 5/1 with Bet365
In the penultimate race on the same card, Sir Mark Prescott runs a horse called Alba Verde over nearly 2m. She is a progressive horse having won her last two races since being upped in trip to around this distance. Having ran over inadequate trips earlier in her career she has now found the winning thread as so many do from Sir Mark’s yard. She is going for her hat-trick here and is probably not done improving just yet. I would think she will go off at a shade of odds-on so 6/5 (Bet365) may look good while it still lasts. Graylyn Ruby will probably give her most to do as she is a proven C&D winner. The race lacks any real strength so hence this short paragraph.
Bets: 1 pt win on each and an 0.5 pt double.