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Written by · 17 October 2014 · Category: Horse Racing

Yesterday didn’t go as expected when Prettyasapicture lost out to Jaja De Jau who turned around a 13l defeat with a 2l win. It goes to show the difference a top jockey like AP or Aidan Coleman can make to a horse. I didn’t think JDJ was given a great ride when losing two runs back to my selection but I certainly didn’t think it would result in a 15l swing in distances. Jolie Blonde was a NR so I had just a 2nd on the blog here yesterday. A mini bit of aftertiming here but I did back Gimme Five when Jolie Blonde was taken out of the race as I had mentioned I thought a forecast on both was worth doing. I had priced Gimme Five at 6/4 w/o Jolie Blonde so when I saw he was 2/1-15/8 it was a no brainer of a bet for me.

It is always worth bearing in mind anyone reading this who likes to have a bet that pricing up a race in which you fancy a horse can be beneficial. You don’t have to physically write down all the different prices of each horse if you don’t want to. I like to have a look through the race and it doesn’t matter if it’s priced up already or not, I then ask myself if this race was run ten times what are the chances of my horse winning and then I put odds to my horse. It can be very beneficial in the sense that a horse you think should be 5/1 might be priced up at 8/1. If this is the case you may decide to back it having expected 5/1 and consider it a good value bet. It can also help you if a horse you think should be a 4/1 chance is after opening at 2/1. You may not have a bet at that price and more often than not it will work out for you in the long run.

 

Moving on to today’s racing and coming up shortly is Ivawood in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket. I’ve liked this horse before he even ran having backed him at Sandown on debut. He won nicely that day but always looked as though the further up in trip he creeps the better he would be. He has won his last two over 6f and although it is talked about the ground being an issue, I personally wouldn’t share the same opinion. He is a shade of odds on at 4/5 with Paddy Power and I think that is a good price having put him in as a 1/2 chance myself. I think the bookies are taking a chance the ground will catch him out but it remains to be seen. It is a top class race so the dangers look to be Capella Sansevero and Charming Thought. Ger Lyons colt has ran respectably in defeats this season and Charming Thought can improve from winning moderate events.

This evening’s racing from Wolverhampton is where my next selection goes in the 7.20. Equally Fast runs for Willie Muir and jump jockey Dougie Costello takes the ride. He has already beaten Field Game and now meets him again on 4lb better terms. They look the two to concentrate on here and the swing in weights makes Equally Fast the one to side with here over the minimum trip. 9/4 with Paddy Power currently.

Bets: 1pt win on each

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