Bye Bye Profits
Having reached a high of +34.46 after Monbeg Dude won and Any Currency came second on Friday I decided to implode over the next few days and turned my bank from a healthy profit to a loss of -22.88 as I write on Monday evening.
I really couldn’t be bothered analysing individual bets as the reason I lost so much of the bank so quickly was mainly down to backing horses without anywhere near enough effort put in to studying their chances. I am quite okay with this though. I have stressed before that I am not betting to large stakes and the profit/loss is not the be all and end all of the blog.
While I did put on quite a few questionable bets, especially on Saturday, to be fair I never went chasing my losses or over extending myself. That being said I did allow myself indulge a bit into what I consider the bold child syndrome. I remember backing Gemix twice on Saturday and actually saying in the log on the Let’s Bet Forum that I was chasing but thinking back on it that’s not what I was doing.
First off, I was actually still 2.36 in the green then so if I wasn’t in loss how could I be chasing my losses? Mind blowing stuff. Still though it is fitting that this was the bet that put me in the red as I knew backing it it was just a hit and hope and if I was taking the profit/loss seriously it wasn’t really worth the risk. I said this to myself and then replied, “Fuck it.” I give you the bold child syndrome. You know something is wrong or foolish or questionable and that’s exactly the reason you do it. It’s part of the fun of the whole process, the extra jammy feeling you get when you win a bet you put no effort whatsoever into and you had no right to win. I imagine it’s what people feel like when they win off a scratch card. It’s just pure luck and everyone likes a bit of luck.
All that being said though, had the Eagles managed to beat a Peterson-less supposedly toothless, hopeless, chanceless Vikings side last night I’d have been up 40 points on a record high for the blog. I’m not one for ifs and buts but I think it sums up the fine lines you thread when you’re semi-serious about your bets and it’s a big warning against the dangers of it for people who take it too seriously and fall foul of the gambling gods. In consecutive weeks earlier in the NFL season I got busted off accums that would have returned about 100 points and 50 points off losses by the Eagles and the Packers. The week the Eagles cost me Foles was injured and not available to replace Vick when he went off against the hapless Giants. The week the Packers cost me Rodgers went off against a Bears team in the early days off life with McCown. Thankfully my bets were small and I’m sure I’ve got lucky and won bets off similar circumstances. It just shows you need to bankroll yourself carefully enough to be able to afford the bad breaks until the chips fall in your favour. With that being said I’m going mad in NFL land tonight and if the powers that be would like to hook a brother up I’d be very grateful.
Ravens @ Lions
The first week of the season, in fact the very first match, I said I thought the Ravens were overrated. They were. Coming off a three game win streak and right back in play off contention you have to be weary of them now but I just get the feeling they are getting too much credit for what they have achieved and are overrated once more. Come on like they beat the Jets, the Steelers (I actually like the Steelers) and the Vikings at home. They have won once all season on the road and Ray Rice is still averaging an abysmal 3 yards per carry. They also have a poor offensive line and travel to the Lions who have lost only twice at home this season, defend the run well and with Suh and Fairley really should get the job done more often on defense.
That brings us to the Lions offense. The first week of the season I marked the Lions and the Chiefs as the two teams whose progression throughout the season I was most interested in seeing. Sure that was partly because of the two aforementioned defensive playmakers for the Lions but really the reasons I thought they should do so much better than the year before were twofold – sorry Stafford. 1) Reggie Bush had the potential to make a real difference for them, running the ball and providing a viable receiving threat coming off screen passes and all that jazz. 2) Reggie’s arrival also had the potential to free up Megatron to do what Megatron does best, but better.
The thing with the Lions is they just seem forever stuck in potential mode. They’re like a science experiment and I’m just waiting for them to turn their potential energy into kinetic energy. They did that in spades against the Packers on thanksgiving but that win is sandwiched between losses to the Steelers, Bucks and Eagles.
They deserve credit though, the only divisional game they lost was an away game against the Rodgers led Packers in week 5. Despite their propensity towards committing stupid, stupid errors they have shown a liking for the big occasion and this one has the potential to decide both participants’ seasons one way or another. Add in the fact that the game takes the national attention of Monday Night Football and I’m starting to really like the Lions’ chances. Now enter Matt Elam from stage left. Anyone who follows the NFL will have heard the jibe he made at Megatron for being old. It’s only in jest to be fair but my God man, even having the laugh with Megatron, you’re fucked.
With Reggie Bush looking likely to start this one is set up for the Lions offense to want to make a statement against the Ravens defense long heralded as one of the best in the business. The Lions have the potential to cut loose on offense, they have the incentive and now they have been given the motivation through goading. I’m just hoping today’s the day they can get it all to come together. I’d also like to see Miami get into the play offs after the horror season they’ve had off the field and a Ravens loss would certainly help their cause.
Finally I need Megatron to score 20.7 points in Fantasy Football to advance to my rightful place in the Let’s Bet league final 😛 I’ve gone trigger happy but the theme of my bets should be quite obvious at this stage.
Calvin Johnson First TD 2 points @ 6/1 (Double the odds with PP if 1st TD scorer scores again
Calvin Johnson First TD in 2nd Half 1 point @ 6/1
Calvin Johnson last TD 1 point @ 6/1
Calvin Johnson over 107.5 receiving yards – 4 points @ 5/6
Calvin Johnson any time TD scorer – 3 points @ 1/2 (better odds available but very minor difference and I’ve money in this account)
Calvin Johnson to score 2 or more TDs – 0.76 points @ 3/1
Lions/Lions Double Result – 4 points @ 8/11
Lions -5.5 (Ladbrokes) – 5 points @ 10/11
Lions -3.5 and over 38.5 total points – 4 points @ 4/6
Lions -7.5 and over 46.5 total points – 2 points @ 21/10
Calvin Johnson any time TD and the Lions to win by 7-12 2 points @ 5/1
Also after the excellent results Sunday I’m putting another 2 points on the Panthers @ 12/1 – I’ll have to stop soon but they just seem overpriced again to me.