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Written by · 09 December 2013 · Category: Betting Log

As Forrest Gump once said, ‘Life is like a packet of Rowntree’s Randoms, you never know whether you’ll get an ice cream cone or a football boot or a van.” My blog has kind of being flittering along like that so far, playing percentages and value more than safe bets and so far I have been quite lucky and am keeping my head above ground.

Coming into the weekend I was up +9.48 points and added a number of preordained as well as a few impulse bets over the last four days.

Recap

In my third blog post I put up the following;

2.5 point NFL Accum – Chargers, Cardinals, Broncos, Ravens, Bucks, Jets  +21.38 points

2 points Panthers to beat Saints – 2 points

1 point trixie – Panthers, Colts, Derby – 4 points

3 point accum – Liverpool, Arsenal, Ravens, Broncos, Cardinals – 3 points

Accum and 11 folds – Previous 5 plus Man U, Lions, Bucks, Jets, Chargers, Panthers, Derby -1.5 points

 

I also said “a friend of mine is supposed to have a horse running in his first bumper Sunday that he is quite keen on” and said I’d be having a few bets on the united game so the next three bets would also have been pre-planned, particularly the one on Clount’s Meadows.

RVP 1st Goal – 2 points

Man United to win 2-0 – 1 point

4 pts e/w Clounts Meadows +16 points

 

The rest of my bets were impulsive really I suppose, although I have followed Twinlight a bit, but to be fair it had slipped my mind he was running until a half hour before hand.

2 points Captain Conan – 2 points

3 points Taquin Du Seuil – 3 points

1.5 point double on the above – 1.5 points

3 points Twinlight + 2.7 points

1 point Giroud 1st Goal – 1 point

 

Picture so Far

All in all it was a pretty good weekend from all perspectives, with my bets landing me a profit of +19.08 to help offset some of the cost of an even better weekend in Manchester (bar the result).

Before post 3: +9.48

Post 3 to now: +19.08

Total so Far: +28.56

 

Thanks due to Marlon Brown for his last second TD and Clount’s Meadows for justifying my friend’s faith in him.

 

Lessons Learned?

The most obvious anomaly I can see is the fact that my impulse bets were down -4.8 points while the ones I had planned out a bit more thoroughly were up +19.08. I don’t really know how much weight to give to this as the opposite was the case at the beginning of this blog’s existence and this may be the exception to the rule for me, although I very much doubt it.

On the other hand while my impulse bets did turn a loss, both Giroud and RVP had chances to score and United could well have won 2-0 if they had scored first, instead of conceding very much against the run of play at that particular juncture of the game.

Maybe human sports are more predictable to a degree, or hunches have more of a place in them as Captain Conan and Taquin De Seuil were a lot further from being successful than the other bets. Or then again maybe it just appears to be this way.

Further to this the loss I suffered from my impulse bets was minimal and I probably gained the value of the loss from the enjoyment I gained in the extra excitement of the experience. Bookies must clean up from this as I for one anyway do find an extra level of involvement in an event when I have a personal interest in it from having a nibble for the interest. I suppose bookies are in the entertainment business in ways which is why you see signs on the shop windows saying how much you’ll get back for €10 on Giroud to score first or Arsenal to win 3-1. No serious punter is realistically going to be swayed by these adds but the guy with a spare tenner in his wallet could very well decide to put that money on a bet and go home and watch the game as opposed to spending it on two pints and watching it in the pub.

Now then that’s my insight for the day. Not exactly Plato or Aristotle and it’s not something I didn’t know before but I thought it was a great way to justify being down those 4.8 points. Sure if I hadn’t lost it I’d have spent it on Skittles or Crystal Meth.

 

 

Sporting Lessons Learned?

The biggest disappointment for me this weekend was of course my beloved (since 2011) Panthers losing badly at the hands of the Saints. Once again I fell folly to my weakness for not respecting the Saints in that stupid expletive-ing Fucking Dome! Sorry.

It’s hard to know what to make of it, as, if the Saints performance this week taught us anything it’s surely the danger of overreacting to one bad performance by a team, A la the Saints in Seattle. Still though, you’d have to be worried by the comprehensive nature of the loss as the season enters the real business end with The Panthers staring down the barrel of a play off run on the road, and that’s hoping they don’t fall out of their play off spot on the run in. I’d be quietly optimistic but the 49ers, Cardinals, Cowboys and Eagles all could occupy 5th and 6th spots yet.

On the other hand, this could be exactly what the Panthers need to get them to raise their game another level after perhaps getting comfortable with the standard of their play during their very impressive 8 game winning streak. Only time will tell. And RTE you owe me endorsement money for my sly advertising of your hit TV game show. #Dotheystillspinthewheel?

 

Another disappointment was obviously United’s loss for the one week of the year I watch them live and while centre mid was an absolute shamble and Chicarito is a little out of his debt leading the line for a full 90 minutes against good opposition there is plenty light at the end of the tunnel. The home side were frustratingly lethargic for much of the first half but they were showing a much improved attitude in the second half and were unlucky not to have taken the lead before Cabaye struck for the visitors. To make matters worse he was sitting on my fantasy bench with Chamakh laughing at their manager’s ignorance (Probably how Kagawa feels in real life half the time). Carrick’s return will help them greatly, as will Rooney’s but the could do with signing another central midfielder in my opinion or turn Scholes into Brett Favre and get another five seasons out of him. He can go to bingo with Giggs after matches and show off their nine million medals to the cougars.

 

My sure fire tempting faith accum inevitably fell one short and while Arsenal looked to have secured the profits for me with the game entering its closing stages I have to hold my hands up and say my lack of research or following of the Premiership this year cost me. Everton are a serious side and had I been following them any bit at all I probably would have realised. That being said I thought Arsenal were the better side and Giroud’s almost wonder strike at the death would have made me look unjustifiably knowledgeable had it been a fraction lower.

 

Future Bets

I might have a look at the Cowboys, Bears game tonight and so far I’d be leaning towards the Cowboys. However the Bears are a team I’ve been caught not respecting before, like the Saints and I’ll wait a few hours before looking into anything more thoroughly. If I do back anything this evening I’ll put it up on my thread in the Let’s Bet Forum and I’ll wait until I’ve something worth saying for my next blog post.

For now I’ll be here… http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?14573-Larry-s-Blog-Shortcut&p=316031#post316031

 

Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.- Abraham Lincoln. (Being fair he stole it from the Bible.

 

Final Thought

The highlight of my weekend had to be the minute’s applause for Nelson Mandela. I’m not going to be one of these people who publicly says how great he was after he has dead because I never did that while he was alive. He was great,obviously and I thought the thousands and millions of people united in silence, applause and respect in sports stadia throughout the world said enough about the life of the man and the beauty of sport.

“Sport has the power to change the world…it has the power to inspire. It has the power to unite people in a way that little else does. It speaks to youth in a language they understand. Sport can create hope where once there was only despair. It is more powerful than government in breaking down racial barriers.”

 

In a city and club as multi-cultural as Manchester and United those words seemed especially true for that minute of applause.

 

 

 

 

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