Right then, I suppose it’s only fair to start with the negatives. Every single horse I put up in yesterday’s post lost. In fairness two finished second and Holywell’s jumping cost him big time and is probably one to keep an eye one, but that’s just sugar coating the issue.
At the end of the horse racing yesterday I was down 23.3 points on the blog and the outlook was even bleaker for my blogging career as I decided yesterday to start up my usual accompanying log on the Let’s Bet Forum which you can see here; http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?14573-Larry-s-Blog-Shortcut&p=315836#post315836
I was down an extra 13.45 points from the log entries and to be fair I was getting quite worried about looking like a fool, but to be fair if I wasn’t willing to face that possibility I wouldn’t keep coming back for a bite of that succulent cherry.
My look turned somewhat with my treble landing in the Premiership rather fortuitously. As I had split my bet between PP and StanJames I din’t quite get the best odds available but I made a profit of 6.68 on the bet, putting the blog posts at a slightly less embarrassing loss of 16.62.
Cheers for that Lewis Holtby.
Next on the agenda is to justify my decision to include the log for last minute bets.
I suppose its quite simple really. I enjoy following horse racing, soccer and other sports and its the sport more than the gambling I’m interested in. As a result of that I will often decide last minute I’m going to watch something and have a look for something I think is a bit of value to have a nibble on ‘for the interest’. If I was doing these blogs purely to make profit or sell off my advice I would have every bet picked out hours before hand, I’d be delusional and the fun would be gone out of it all for me.
Which lead me nicely along to today.
I had no intention of getting up early to do a blog today after a late night in work yesterday but did still make the effort to put a few lines in on all my selections from this afternoon’s race meetings. I made a nice profit of 39.55 points of the day after my first bet, Kalmann, fell at the second last when seemingly having the race at his mercy. There’s a bit of poetic justice (completely undeserved I might add) in the fact that after losing my first bet I went on to have a very successful afternoon, given that I opened yesterday’s post with this foreshadowing prophesy; “In our unjustified optimism we used often say it was bad luck to win your first bet.” Awesome.
While I’d a few nice winners and obviously my luck was in somewhat, I am particularly happy with post number twenty in the thread.
“3.30 Lost in Newyork – 1.5 points e/w @ 9/1. 1 point e/w @ 7/1
There’s just something about this fella that says the money coming for him could be justified. He’s halved from 18s to 9s and runs at Leicester for the second time. The first outing here was his rules debut and that performance over today’s trip on the same ground earned him an opening handicap mark of 102. Less than a year later he runs here again off bottom weight and a mark of 79 having shown flashes of form and being supported on a number of his starts between then and now. Running with a racing weight of 9-12 thanks to his 7 pound claimer he could well spring a surprise in this and land a bit of a touch. I added the extra 1 point e/w because I talked myself into liking his chances even more with my write up :)”
After that I saw sense and called it a day – kind of.
The Picture so Far
Today’s bets left me with a profit of 26.1 on the log on the forum to offset of the loss of 16.62 I’ve suffered from my two blog posts so far. For the sake of simplicity I can combine the two now and I’m rather jubilant to find myself sitting on a profit of 9.48 less than twenty four hours after leaving myself scarlet faced from my early exertions.
Onwards and Upwards
Another positive development today came when I found I had qualified for a 2.5 point free bet on the NFL accums after all. It took me a second to figure this one out as, despite all my talk about the money back offer both the Browns and the Bills had lost making me ineligible for the refund. A quick scan through my history revealed all as due to the Steelers’ failed 2 point conversion on Thanksgiving they had left me down for my earlier accumulator.
I used this free bet on the following:
Chargers @ 10/17
Cardinals @ 4/11
Broncos @ 2/13
Ravens @ 5/14
Buccaneers @ 4/6
Jets @ 20/29
For the purpose of the blog though I’ll treat this as if I placed the 2.5 point stake and will include the stake in my returns should it come in, as it would be unfair to count it as a free bet since it was only earned from a bet I lost before I started the blog.
I’m going to Manchester for the weekend and while there are a lot of bets I kind of like for the weekend there’s not much I’m firm on yet.
I have put 2 points on the Panthers to beat the Saints in the Superdome at 13/10 and a 1 point trixie (4 points) on them along with the Colts to win on the road against the Bengals at 11/5 and Derby to beat Blackpool at 3/4.
Every time I watch the Panther play I grow to like them more and I think they are the dark horses for the Super Bowl. I’m probably going to go in on them again for the Super Bowl at some stage Friday or Saturday at tens as if they win this they will surely drop to 7s at best. Even if they lose and heaven forbid lose the rematch in Carolina, if they make the play offs in any shape they are capable of beating anyone on their day. I know the Superdome is a notorious place to visit and I’ve been burned before for not giving the Saints the respect they probably deserve but I’m just not convinced by them. Added to that I’d take 13/10 on the Panthers against anyone at this point.
As for the Colts this price is just waaaay too high. The Bengals cannot and should not be trusted. They are like Liverpool, an accumulator buster (note I fully intend putting Liverpool into my soccer accum should I put one on this weekend). Then there’s the Colts. They are a loveable bunch of Padraig Harrington’s. They are a bunch of perennial over-achievers and above all they win when they are supposed to lose. Come on like, they have beaten the 49ers, Broncos and Seahawks already this year. Granted they have since lost Reggie Wayne for the season and faltered quite a bit since his injury but this is exactly what they do, they win these games, they probably win again against the Texans the week after and then when they are favourites to beat the Chiefs they get almost completely shut out and lose by 16 points. If over 80 percent of that ends up being correct I’m changing my confirmation name to Nostradamus.
Finally we come to Derby. I stole them completely and utterly from the thread entitled The Let’s Bet Treble. I did do a minimal bit of research after plagiarising the news that Blackpool will be without their two centre halves and a striker I have actually heard of, believe it or not, and my investigation revealed that Derby have won their last 4 matches. They are at home for this match, are level on points and are in better form than their opponents who will be without 3 key regular starters. 3/4 seems a no brainer or maybe that’s the catch I’ve fallen for.
My sure fire, can’t possibly lose, tempting faith accum for the weekend is 3 points on…
Liverpool @ 2/7
Arsenal @ 4/6
Ravens @ 10/29
Broncos @ 1/6
Cardinals @ 10/27
and my make me a millionaire accum is all of the above plus
Lions @ 6/5
Buccaneers @ 5/7
Jets @ 5/7
Chargers @ 10/17
Panthers @ 13/10
Man United @ 1/2
Derby @ 3/4
I’ve .9 of a point on the accum and .05 on the elevenfolds making it 1.5 points at risk to hit the jackpot.
As I am going to be in Old Trafford Saturday I will definitely have some bit of a nibble on the Red Devils be it 1st goalscorer or flipping total corners or something and a friend of mine is supposed to have a horse running in his first bumper Sunday that he is quite keen on. As a result I’ll probably post a few bets in my log on the forum and might have a look at some of the racing over the weekend if I’ve time to spare from my free time.