UFC on FX 8 is on tonight and sees Vitor Belfort fight current Strikeforce Middleweight Champion Luke Rockhold. Betting wise I do not like tonight too much. I think next week’s UFC 160 will have better opportunities to make some money. With that being said though, I always like to do a few bets to make it even more fun to watch.
You can check out the weigh-ins in the video below to see what these guys look like.
Bet #1: John Lineker (1.70) vs. Azamat Gashimov (2.15)
John Lineker is an exciting stand up fighter who likes to stand and bang but his ground work is a little questionable and he is fighting a Russian Sumo wrestler in Azamat Gashimov which poses a problem if you are not comfortable with grappling. I think this is a good spot to bet on the underdog. Gashimov is fighting out of the Jacksons gym so you know he will have a solid game plan. I see Gashimov being good enough to not get caught standing and get this fight to the ground where he should be able to control Lineker with relative ease. I’m taking a chance here and betting on Gashimov.
Bet 1 unit @ 2.15 Ladbrokes – 1 unit wins 1.15
No other matches really stand out to me in this one. I have a few fighters picked out which I will be betting on, mixing up parlays and things like that. They are:
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (1.20) vs. Chris Camozzi (5.0)
Jacare is a lock in this fight. I see no way for Chris Camozzi to win. With Jacare you have one of the best grapplers in MMA, period. Camozzi is an average all-round fighter who will give a good fight but that is about it. I like Jacare to win here and you could add him to other fights to build up the odds. One bet you can consider is Jacare by submission @ 1.72 Ladbrokes.
Rafael dos Anjos (1.50) vs. Evan Dunham (2.65)
This fight is somewhat close but again I like the Brazilian. He matches Dunham wherever this goes and is a fighter on the up. I think this fight will be close but RDA does enough to win this. Take the prop bet RDA on points at Ladbrokes @ 2.05
Francisco Trinaldo (1.30) vs Mike Rio (3.75)
Trinaldo should have too much for Rio in this fight, he is a handful for any guy in the division and Rio is just an average fighter. His only chance to win this fight will be to take Trinaldo down and for me that is not going to happen. Trinaldo is too good on the feet and with his take down defence to be in trouble here. My money is with Francisco Trinaldo @ 1.30
Gleison Tibau (1.47) vs. John Cholish (2.80)
Tibau is one of the guys I should not bet on. I have a couple of them, like Frankie Edgar, BJ Penn – I never get them right but again I’m going for him here. Tibau is a big lightweight and as solid as they come. I believe he beat Dunham in his last fight but did not get the decision – any time he loses it’s either a really close/disputed decision or against one of the top guys. I see some people going for Cholish here but I don’t see how he can beat Tibau. His only chance is to submit him and I doubt he will be able to get the guy down once. Tibau decision for me.
Vitor Belfort (2.05) vs. Luke Rockhold (1.80)
This is a fight I have been mulling over and I’ll wait until later to do my bet on this. I suggest if you are going to wait for this do so on Ladbrokes or Bet365 because Paddy Power has a habit of messing up the times and taking down fights early.
Luke Rockhold is the current Strikeforce Middleweight Champion. He started out as a good grappler, the American style not the Russian, and he is with a very good camp, I believe the best one, AKK along with Valesquez, Cromier and the like. That’s what has me questioning myself with this one. I watched his last fight against Tim Kennedy and he fought for 5 rounds doing what he needed to do to win. It was a crap fight imo.
He can be a flashy fighter at times which I see leading to mistakes. Belfort is one of the best, period, and in his last few fights he has looked really good despite the losses in there. Remember they came to the #1/#2 pound-for-pound fighters in the world. He is fast, has great hands, good power and is good on the ground. Rockhold could try one of his flashy kicks on this guy and see himself KO’d 2 seconds later. That’s the danger here. One thing I don’t like about Belfort is I don’t think he can last 5 rounds. I think he either wins quickly or fades around the 3rd.
I have not fully made up my mind with this. The odds for Belfort to win by submission are 18.0 which I think are crazy and probably worth a cheeky small bet. I’ll be waiting until later for this and probably doing some live betting on it. It looks like we have just 4 fights to do that on.
I think if Belfort wins it’ll be early in the fight. The odds on Ladbrokes round groups betting – Rounds 1,2 @ 3.25 are good enough to bet. The other I see happening is Luke Rockhold gets past the first few rounds and takes a decision @ 3.60. You could bet both to almost guarantee a profit but there is always that chance that Rockhold wins in rounds 3,4 and 5 @ 7.50.
Those are my thoughts on tonight and I hope it will give you a few ideas for your bets. As always you can check out the latest odds on my site mmabettingodds.com.