It’s been a while since I posted here. Work tends to get in the way of my weekends, plus I am not a writer so I find it difficult to get my thoughts on paper but with that said, UFC 172 is on tonight and I have a little time this morning so I figured I’d let you know my thoughts.
Bet #1: I am taking Phil Davis (1.50 @ Paddy Power) over Anthony Johnson paired with Danny Castillo (1.36) over Charlie Brenneman.
I have 9 units on this bet and managed to get it at over evens earlier in the week. Currently at Paddy Power it is 1.87 but you could add Luke Rockhold to this to get it over evens.
Danny Castillo should be good enough to win this fight. He is a good wrestler, has good hands and is good on the ground. He is with the Alfa Male team, that has Faber and the likes and these guys are generally excellent at getting finishes. In his last fight he almost beat Edson Barboza who was one of the top guys in the division.
Charlie Brenneman is good at one thing and that is wrestling. Now Castillo has had trouble in the past getting taken down so there is always a chance he will be taken down again and again in this fight but I think Brenneman is just too easy to hit that he will get rocked and finished at some point in this fight.
Phil Davis is one of the top guys in the LHW division, an excellent wrestler who has great submissions and his stand up has improved a lot in recent fights. With Johnson what you get is a huge aggressive dangerous guy for 1 round. If he wins, it is going to be by KO, if he gets taken down he will be in huge trouble. Phil Davis managed to beat Lyoto Machida and Johnson is not on the same level with his striking. I see this being nervy for the first round, after that Davis should take control and I believe he will win by submission.
- Bet 9 units to win 7.8 units – add Luke Rockhold to this to win 9.6.
Luke Rockhold vs Tim Boetsch
Tim Boetsch is what I would call a lucky fighter. He is not really that good but seems to get the decision in close fights. Really he should be on a 5-fight losing streak. He was getting dominated by Yushin Okami and got a lucky KO, won dubious split decisions against Lombard and Dollaway and lost to Munoz and Philippou. That could easily be 0-5 instead of 3-2.
Rockhold is the real deal. This guy is good and I believe this is a gimme fight for him just to keep his name in the mix. I think this fight is tailor made for him to look good on a big PPV card so it keeps him in the mix for a title shot. His odds are bad, so you can add him to accumulators straight or take the prop. I like Luke Rockhold by KO @ 2.25.
Jim Miller vs Yancy Medeiros
Looking at this fight you would think the only outcome is a Jim Miller win. He’s the name you know, good at submissions and in exciting fights. I am just saying be careful with this one. Yancy Medeiros could be a bad matchup for Miller. His stand up is good and if Jim cannot get this to the ground he could be in for a long night. He did get taken down by Rustam Khabilov in their fight but everyone that fights him will experience that. The impressive part was he was quickly able to get back up.
Miller was training for Bobby Green but it got changed just a week ago. Medeiros is a very different fight for Miller. I just think Medeiros will be the one with more to win in this fight. A big win over a UFC stable name in Miller and a jump up the rankings could be all this new guy needs to put on a performance. The odds are decent too.
I suggest a small bet to win 1 unit on Yancy Medeiros at Paddy Power. Take the Double Chance KO or Points @ 3.30.
This is getting long so I will be quick with the rest!
Andre Fili vs Max Holloway
Max Holloway is the big name here so I expect him to get most of the action as the fights get closer. I believe Andre Fili is a bad match up for him and should be able to take him down at will. Fili is the favourite but the odds are still decent @ 1.70. I suggest a bet maybe paired with Phil Davis for a better than evens bet.
Joseph Benavidez vs Tim Elliott
I think the odds are about right in this fight. Benavidez is the better fighter here and should get the win but I think Elliott can take this fight the distance. Have to go to Ladbrokes for odds on this but over 1.5 rounds at 1.33 or over 2.5 rounds at 1.57 look like decent bets. You could use either one of these to fill accumulators, both better than Benavidez straight.
Isaac Vallie-Flagg v Takanori Gomi
Gomi is the fan favourite here for sure, I will probably bet him later when the fighting is on but as I am looking now the odds don’t look too good. Again in this one I like the over bets. At Ladbrokes 1.5 rounds is 1.25 and 2.5 rounds is 1.44. I like the over 1.5 rounds better here.
Jessamyn Duke v Bethe Correia
I like Duke in this one. Correia has a good record but has not looked good in her fights, Duke is a big tall girl compared to others and should be able to keep this fight at a comfortable distance. I don’t think she has to worry about getting taken down either and the fact she trains with Ronda Rousey I like to think she has learned a thing or two should it go to the ground. I think Duke is good enough odds to bet here, again pair her with Rockhold for a plus evens bet.
Glover Teixeira v Jon Jones
I don’t have a bet on this. I believe Jon Jones will have too much for Glover wherever this fight goes but the odds @ 1.18 look too steep to bet. I suggest you have plenty of beers and just enjoy the fight!
While I was writing this I noticed that Ladbrokes give the option of over 1.5 rounds and 2.5 rounds, I think these are the only ones to do in this so I am going to take advantage before they change it.
Bet #2: 5 units accumulator @ 2.03
- Jessamyn Duke v Bethe Correia (over 1.5)
Isaac Vallie-Flagg v Takanori Gomi (over 1.5)
Andre Fili vs Max Holloway (over 1.5)
That’s my thoughts on tonight guys. Let me know what you think. As always you can keep up to date with the upcoming MMA events and get the latest odds at my site www.mmabettingodds.com.