My name is Will and I’ve been a member here at Let’s Bet for a couple of years now. My two favourite sports are football (Liverpool) and MMA. I suck at betting on football. I find it impossible to win but on the UFC I do quite well. Most weekends there is an event on and I am going to try and pick some winners for you guys. Now, my writing/grammar is not the best but I’m sure it will be good enough to understand.
The way I will bet is in units. For you, that could be €1, €10, €50 or whatever you like the term ‘unit’ to mean. Let’s hope I make some profit and not look a complete idiot doing this!
Before I start the three main sites I will pick these bets from are:
Paddy Power – These are alright for UFC Betting. You have a lot of the prop betting options such as round betting, method of victory etc. One thing that sets these apart from the others is that sometimes you can bet on Fight of the Night, Submission of the Night and KO of the Night.
Bet365 – At first glance you would think these guys suck for this but make sure to check them out on fight night and you will see they have all the options I mentioned before plus they offer Live In-Play betting on the UFC – actually one of the very best to offer this.
Ladbrokes – My personal favourite for UFC/MMA betting, they offer all the prop bets, round betting and even have split/unanimous decision options. They also offer Live UFC Betting (the fights with a yellow box around the time display will be available live).
I use Sherdog.com to view the fighters and their stats. That site has the history of all fighters. To view it, go to the calendar on the right, click on an event, click on a fighter and you get their complete record.
Some of the terminology I will use in my posts are:
- Parlay = accumulator / multiple bet
- UD = Win on points by Unanimous Decision
- Split = Win on points by Split Decision
- KO = To win by TKO / KO / Doctor stoppage
- Sub = To win by Submission
- ITD = To win Inside the Distance (KO/Sub/Stoppage)
- Over/Under = For the fight to go over X rounds or under X rounds
- SU = Straight up/Match Bet
I have a website on MMA betting that lists all the best sites to wager on this at, I have an odds comparison tool, some calculators and stuff like that. It’s always a work in progress and I’m trying to make it an authority site on betting on MMA. You can check it out anytime by visiting MMABettingOdds.com.
BET #1) Rustam Khabilov (15/1/0) vs Yancy Medeiros (9/0)
My first bet on the night will be for Rustam Khabilov. This guy is a Russian Sambo fighter and he trains with Jackons gym along with Jon Jones and the rest of the beasts there. This is his second fight in the UFC, his first was an awesome display of his wrestling skills.
He is fighting Yancy Medeiros who has come over from Strikeforce. He was new himself to Strikeforce before the UFC bought it so his record has mostly been earned in the smaller shows. 6 of his 9 wins have come via KO so this guy does seem impressive enough when you look at his record. Rustam Khabilov on the other hand has had one of the most impressive UFC debuts in recent times. Check it out for yourself.
My reasons for being on Rustam Khabilov are obvious when you look at that video, add the fact that he is training with Jackons (master game planners) and all things are pointing to a Khabilov victory. Yancy Medeiros does have an impressive record and KO power in his hands but to connect with this guy, he will have to land a lucky punch.
Khabilov has really good wresting so it should dictate where this fight takes place, it lets him get in real good positions which opens up spots to get in submission or like you saw on that video, pound his way to a TKO. It’s because of that video he is such a favourite in this fight but if you look closer at his record, this man is no wrecking machine. The fact he is fighting with Jacksons and is fighting a guy with good hands, I see him having a plan to wrestle this guy for the entire fight and stay out of danger.
I’m looking to do this bet at Ladbrokes and looking at his SU odds I think there is too much juice @ 1.33 so I’m looking at the props. For Khabilov to win ITD (under decision victories) he is 1.80, again this is not great and I blame that video above, people are betting that a lot. Taking everything I’ve said into account I believe this fight will go to points and only see only one winner.
1 Unit on Rustam Khabilov at Ladbrokes to win by UD (under decision victories) @ 4.0 – 1 Unit bet wins 3 units.
BET #2) Bad Blood Parlay
Phil Davis (10/1) vs Vinny Magalhaes (10/5)
Both of these guys have been having a little war of words on twitter for months now, one saying they are scared to fight the other and stuff like that, both masters in their preferred disciplines. With Phil Davis you have one of the best wrestlers in the UFC and has added some impressive submissions to his game to make him a dangerous guy for anyone. With Vinny Magalhaes you have the current BBJ world champion and one of the very best BBJ fighters in the UFC. With both of these styles we should expect them to cancel each other out and give us a stand up war, right?
No. Both are not very good on their feet and if anything Magalhaes would have the edge if this fight was to stay standing.
The fight should take place against the cage and on the ground with Phil Davis dominating position. This guy’s wrestling is outstanding, he is quick and strong and should have no problem taking Vinny down. What he will have to watch out for is a flash kick or something like that early in this fight and when he does get it down he will have to be very careful against Vinny’s Jiu-Jitsu.
I believe Magalhaes will be on his back for most of this fight and that Davis is too good to do anything foolish when he has him there, keep position, keep busy and not get submitted, so I see this fight going the distance with Davis winning on points.
I like the over 2.5 rounds with this @ 1.57 with Paddy Power.
Michael Bisping (23/5) vs. Alan Belcher (18/7)
Again with this fight, much like all of Bisping’s fights, these guys have been talking shit on the internet for weeks and both really don’t like each other. With Bisping we know what we get, a guy in shape, great all-round fighter that can outwork any guy on the feet and go the distance with ease, he just has to be careful that he does not get KO’d in the meantime.
With Belcher we have a more flashy guy, he will try things you wont see Bisping doing and I think that will be his downfall in this fight. He has big power and puts everything into his strikes but does wild things that put him in terrible positions. He is a blackbelt BBJ guy and he goes for high-risk submissions when they are available but they usually leave him in a bad position on the ground when they don’t work. In his last fight against Okami he went for chokes numerous times that had little chance of working and they left him on his back with his opponent on top doing all the damage.
Two outcomes I see in this one, Bisping wins on points or Belcher wins by KO. I think Bisping out-strikes Belcher on the feet with better kickboxing, not as much power, a lot more and more accurate strikes compared to Belchers ‘big power’ slower strikes.
Bisping has good wrestling too so he should be able to put Belcher on his back and keep him there without too much trouble. Bisping can outwork most guys at 185lbs he just has to watch out for big strikes and not make a mistake on the ground. He beat Brian Stann with relative easy and Belcher is a poor man’s Brian Stann. It’s Bisping’s fight to lose and I see him winning on points.
I like over 2.5 rounds with this @ 1.44 with Paddy Power.
Parlay #1) Over 2.5 rounds at Paddy Power
Phil Davis vs. Vinny Magalhaes @ 1.57
Michael Bisping vs. Alan Belcher @1.44
Bet 1 Unit to win 1.27 units
Parlay #2) Method of Victory at Paddy Power
Phil Davis wins on points @ 1.90
Michael Bisping wins on points @ 2.20
Bet 1 Unit to win 3.20 units
BET #3) Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen
I don’t have much to say about this one, there is only one outcome in this fight and its Jon Jones ITD, I would parlay all my bets tonight with Jones ITD and I have, if any of my early bets come up the winnings are going on Jon Jones ITD @ 1.22 – I would be comfortable betting my entire account balance on this!
Don’t forget to have a few quid on Bet365’s live betting when this is on. It makes it just that much more fun.
Again, you can follow the news relating to these events at my site http://www.mmabettingodds.com/.